Dow?
- Thread starter irvinehomeowner
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I think Gold was in the 900s pre recession. Gold is one of those things you just hang on to and sell.. when the economy is down. Just like putting money in the VIX index. Just have to sell at the right time.
I think Oil is a good bet for your kids.. not now.. but in the next 2-3 years.
According to this, US electricity generation is dependent more on coal, natural gas and nuclear than petroleum:
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Solar is about electricity generation replacement... not gas consumption.
It's great you compiled all that data.
Just take a look at charts of solar stocks and oil.
I just did a one year stock chart comparison of spwr and cvx. (I chose sunpower because they are a profitable public solar company. Which is rare in the solar industry as of now, in my opinion. I also chose chevron, profitable big oil company)
So for one year, the two stocks I mentioned above are down about the same percentage.
Also, I'd you look at the 1 month, 3 month chart for the stocks mentioned above it looks almost the same. (When the price of oil going down)
I respectfully disagree with the intermediate and longer term direction for the energy industry. I wrote this to a client earlier...
Call it a Christmas Miracle. We have been delivered from the jaws of depression. CHEAP ENERGY!!!! The trend that brings us a massive domestic job creator not just in the sector itself but in a renaissance in our manufacturing sector because of cheap energy which offsets more expensive labor and transport when manufacturing overseas. We have become one of the world?s largest producers of energy, satiating most of our internal needs to the point where exporting energy will renew our economy and flip our trade deficit from imports to exports. Cash that once went to countries that don?t like us very much will not only stay here but cash flows will actually come here to pay for our energy. Our production is in the process of breaking the back of OPEC?s strangle hold on our economy. Lower oil prices are punishing unfriendly regimes like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela without our state department lifting a finger. The revolution is easing pressure on inflation, reducing the pressure on interest rates. Our new found wealth will help repay some of our budget deficits in the form of greater tax collections on profits and incomes. The trend has created thousands of new Millionaires around the country and increased national wealth many fold almost overnight. We no longer have to depend or overly protect a part of the world that does not seem to want our help. Billions more are being kept by all of us in the form of CHEAPER gas. That is tantamount to multibillion dollar tax cut whose stimulus effect on consumers this Christmas will be felt all over the retail sector. There is NO NEGATIVE to this trend (unless you feel sorry for oil companies that I can tell you are not going to be hurt one bit). So why is the media so quick to claim DISASTER?
Past results are not always indicative of future performance.
You're looking at stock performance, I'm looking at other indicators like consumer usage, technology costs, viability and availability.
To me, solar is unrelated to oil in such that it talks to a different market base. In 10 years, I don't think you'll be able to draw that line when comparing oil stocks to solar stocks.
One issue I'm worried about regarding to the fallen oil price is the cause of fallen oil price.
They are many reasons for fallen oil price but one of the reason is decrease demand due to lackluster economy around the world. And lackluster economy might put a dent on the stock market.
Hope cheap oil will help stimulate the ecomomy but Oil prices will stay around $60 a barrel for the next five years as China's economy cools down, economist Andy Xie told CNBC on Thursday.
The billion dollar question is that how much cheap oil will help the economy, boots corporate profit (other than oil company), and increase stock market prices.
J
jmoney74
Guest
JustSayin said:
I think Gold was in the 900s pre recession. Gold is one of those things you just hang on to and sell.. when the economy is down. Just like putting money in the VIX index. Just have to sell at the right time.
I think Oil is a good bet for your kids.. not now.. but in the next 2-3 years.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Is there a solar stock? 
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:Is there a solar stock?
Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Really?eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:Is there a solar stock?
Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Because it is.
According to this, US electricity generation is dependent more on coal, natural gas and nuclear than petroleum:
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Solar is about electricity generation replacement... not gas consumption.
irvinehomeowner said:Really?eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:Is there a solar stock?
Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Because it is.
According to this, US electricity generation is dependent more on coal, natural gas and nuclear than petroleum:
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Solar is about electricity generation replacement... not gas consumption.
It's great you compiled all that data.
Just take a look at charts of solar stocks and oil.
I just did a one year stock chart comparison of spwr and cvx. (I chose sunpower because they are a profitable public solar company. Which is rare in the solar industry as of now, in my opinion. I also chose chevron, profitable big oil company)
So for one year, the two stocks I mentioned above are down about the same percentage.
Also, I'd you look at the 1 month, 3 month chart for the stocks mentioned above it looks almost the same. (When the price of oil going down)
morekaos
Well-known member
eyephone said:
I respectfully disagree with the intermediate and longer term direction for the energy industry. I wrote this to a client earlier...
Call it a Christmas Miracle. We have been delivered from the jaws of depression. CHEAP ENERGY!!!! The trend that brings us a massive domestic job creator not just in the sector itself but in a renaissance in our manufacturing sector because of cheap energy which offsets more expensive labor and transport when manufacturing overseas. We have become one of the world?s largest producers of energy, satiating most of our internal needs to the point where exporting energy will renew our economy and flip our trade deficit from imports to exports. Cash that once went to countries that don?t like us very much will not only stay here but cash flows will actually come here to pay for our energy. Our production is in the process of breaking the back of OPEC?s strangle hold on our economy. Lower oil prices are punishing unfriendly regimes like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela without our state department lifting a finger. The revolution is easing pressure on inflation, reducing the pressure on interest rates. Our new found wealth will help repay some of our budget deficits in the form of greater tax collections on profits and incomes. The trend has created thousands of new Millionaires around the country and increased national wealth many fold almost overnight. We no longer have to depend or overly protect a part of the world that does not seem to want our help. Billions more are being kept by all of us in the form of CHEAPER gas. That is tantamount to multibillion dollar tax cut whose stimulus effect on consumers this Christmas will be felt all over the retail sector. There is NO NEGATIVE to this trend (unless you feel sorry for oil companies that I can tell you are not going to be hurt one bit). So why is the media so quick to claim DISASTER?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
The famous investor disclaimer:eyephone said:
Past results are not always indicative of future performance.
You're looking at stock performance, I'm looking at other indicators like consumer usage, technology costs, viability and availability.
To me, solar is unrelated to oil in such that it talks to a different market base. In 10 years, I don't think you'll be able to draw that line when comparing oil stocks to solar stocks.
morekaos said:
One issue I'm worried about regarding to the fallen oil price is the cause of fallen oil price.
They are many reasons for fallen oil price but one of the reason is decrease demand due to lackluster economy around the world. And lackluster economy might put a dent on the stock market.
Hope cheap oil will help stimulate the ecomomy but Oil prices will stay around $60 a barrel for the next five years as China's economy cools down, economist Andy Xie told CNBC on Thursday.
The billion dollar question is that how much cheap oil will help the economy, boots corporate profit (other than oil company), and increase stock market prices.
morekaos
Well-known member
Oil has become the new housing bubble: Trader Rob Raymondhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/102261689
Stock-holm Syndrome: Equities held hostage by oilhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-holm-syndrome--equities-held-hostage-by-oil-124135978.html
Plunging oil prices may trigger unresthttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-oil-prices-may-trigger-113500233.html
Wall St declines as oil tumbles furtherhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stocks-open-lower-oil-143340159.html
Oil decline is the 'black swan' event!: Birinyihttp://www.cnbc.com/id/102258318
Could Falling Oil Prices Create The Next Financial Disaster For Mom And Pop Investors?http://seekingalpha.com/article/272...-financial-disaster-for-mom-and-pop-investors
Could Plummeting Oil Prices Spell Disaster For Banks?http://liveindex.org/2014/12/05/could-plummeting-oil-prices-spell-disaster-for-banks/
Why Oil Is Finally Declining, Which May Lead to Disasterhttp://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...ng-which-may-lead-to-disaster/comment-page-2/
Poppycock!! I would wager not one of those authors saw this decline coming but now claim to know the what?s and why?s. With that glorious list of positives above, the media wishes to focus on a fatalistic, theoretical negative outcome. I know nobody wants to read about the 22,000 planes that landed safely yesterday, they want the pictures of the one that crashed. I repeat, there is little negative that comes from lower energy prices. If you worry about oil company profits, (which most people don?t) I can attest that when oil was $9/barrel in the early 90?s they still made quite a bit of money. The future is bright, bask in the sun, don?t put on shades, run inside, close the shutters and hide under your bed in the fetal position. It?s Christmas!!!!
Stock-holm Syndrome: Equities held hostage by oilhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-holm-syndrome--equities-held-hostage-by-oil-124135978.html
Plunging oil prices may trigger unresthttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-oil-prices-may-trigger-113500233.html
Wall St declines as oil tumbles furtherhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stocks-open-lower-oil-143340159.html
Oil decline is the 'black swan' event!: Birinyihttp://www.cnbc.com/id/102258318
Could Falling Oil Prices Create The Next Financial Disaster For Mom And Pop Investors?http://seekingalpha.com/article/272...-financial-disaster-for-mom-and-pop-investors
Could Plummeting Oil Prices Spell Disaster For Banks?http://liveindex.org/2014/12/05/could-plummeting-oil-prices-spell-disaster-for-banks/
Why Oil Is Finally Declining, Which May Lead to Disasterhttp://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...ng-which-may-lead-to-disaster/comment-page-2/
Poppycock!! I would wager not one of those authors saw this decline coming but now claim to know the what?s and why?s. With that glorious list of positives above, the media wishes to focus on a fatalistic, theoretical negative outcome. I know nobody wants to read about the 22,000 planes that landed safely yesterday, they want the pictures of the one that crashed. I repeat, there is little negative that comes from lower energy prices. If you worry about oil company profits, (which most people don?t) I can attest that when oil was $9/barrel in the early 90?s they still made quite a bit of money. The future is bright, bask in the sun, don?t put on shades, run inside, close the shutters and hide under your bed in the fetal position. It?s Christmas!!!!
morekaos
Well-known member
We can competed pretty much indefinitely. We actually sit on more oil than Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq combined. Most frackers are already producing at the wellhead at around $45.00 a barrel. Remember, many of these current fields are old fields with infrastructure already in place. Fracking simply piggybacks on existing wellheads that stopped producing when the ?loose? oil gave out. There is far more ?tight? oil in these fields and technology and efficiency has dropped the production prices considerably over the last few years. We will win a war but OPEC will eventually have to back down. Either way cheap, stable energy may be here to stay. That is a good thing for both the country and your investments. It is erroneous to link oil prices with oil company profits. As I said, at $9.00 a barrel Chevron made money, at $130.00 a barrel Chevron made money. The market also makes this mistake. Price of the commodity is intermediate term not relevant to profits. Volume is relative to profits. Chevron simply passes on the price of oil and keeps a spread for profits. They ALWAYS make money. Better than a casino. At $60 a barrel and $2.00 a gallon the drop in prices will be made up with consumptive volume. Cheaper travel, cheaper transport, cheaper vacations, cheaper products and goods?more consumption, more profits.
morekaos
Well-known member
Nothing fixes things like booming consumer demand. However, productivity, efficiencies and advances in fracking technology have been astonishing over the last few years. Also remember this is a very reactive sector. If it becomes too cheap companies simply take wells offline. The asset remains until it becomes more profitable to resume production. Happens all the time and is not difficult to re-start on short notice. Most fields have been in production for several years so are efficiently operating at relatively low prices. Newer leases may not be immediately put into production while prices stay so low but when prices stabilize they can be easily brought online. Exploration costs are low as we know where most of the tight deposits are now.