Dow?
- Thread starter irvinehomeowner
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Still about 85% cash in brokerage but getting gun shy now as the overreaction is considerably worse than I thought. I?m just assuming our 401ks are going to lose 50%.
I still think the comeback will be swift in the second half of the year if things resume back to normal in 2-3 weeks. I need to remind myself that things will get better over the longer term but getting a little bit harder every day.
Although the psychological impact of this may be longer lasting than I first anticipated so that bounce may not be as swift after all. Who knows.
Morekaos seems to have nerves of steel so maybe I?ll give him my money and let him manage it.
we won't see a trend upwards until we get news that recoveries > new cases in the US. consider the fact that our known cases are severely depressed due to lack of testing - i can see us dropping another 20-30% once we're testing 20,000+ people per day, which we should hit by the end of the month. till then, load up on otm puts on your favorite index and start printing $$$
We shall see. I think the reaction of being supportive of the spread will turn when people stop getting paid and start losing jobs. The government can only do so much. A vaccine/cure is 6-18 months away, can?t put every one on the governments dime. At some point the system collapses.
It WILL be up to the government to figure something out, and I can't stand that I just wrote that, but it is true. And whatever it is, we are not going to like it. We are going to have to hold our noses and take a huge bite of whatever it is they cook up.
Selling VXX OTM puts (with cushion) has been very profitable as the premiums are HUGE. Even on big up days, VXX does not tank like it used to probably because those up days are just short covering rallies.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Wow. 20k
Anyone think 18k? 15k? Back to 12k when this thread started?
Anyone think 18k? 15k? Back to 12k when this thread started?
qwerty
Well-known member
The public reaction to this has exceeded my expectations. Which has led to this steep decline in the market. This continues to reaffirm my belief that 95% of the human population are a bunch of morons.
At some point in the next 2-4 weeks things need to go back to normal while they still can otherwise people will start looting , rioting and getting violent. The economic damage this will cause wil be far worse than the deaths related to the virus.
At some point in the next 2-4 weeks things need to go back to normal while they still can otherwise people will start looting , rioting and getting violent. The economic damage this will cause wil be far worse than the deaths related to the virus.
qwerty
Well-known member
Kings said:lots of volatility these next few weeks. time to make some money >
Still about 85% cash in brokerage but getting gun shy now as the overreaction is considerably worse than I thought. I?m just assuming our 401ks are going to lose 50%.
I still think the comeback will be swift in the second half of the year if things resume back to normal in 2-3 weeks. I need to remind myself that things will get better over the longer term but getting a little bit harder every day.
Although the psychological impact of this may be longer lasting than I first anticipated so that bounce may not be as swift after all. Who knows.
Morekaos seems to have nerves of steel so maybe I?ll give him my money and let him manage it.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Qwerty, sell puts on companies that you are interested in owning...the premiums are HUGE but wait a little more. We may get to 2,000 and they'll sell off companies that shouldn't be sold off as much.
qwerty said:Kings said:lots of volatility these next few weeks. time to make some money >
Still about 85% cash in brokerage but getting gun shy now as the overreaction is considerably worse than I thought. I?m just assuming our 401ks are going to lose 50%.
I still think the comeback will be swift in the second half of the year if things resume back to normal in 2-3 weeks. I need to remind myself that things will get better over the longer term but getting a little bit harder every day.
Although the psychological impact of this may be longer lasting than I first anticipated so that bounce may not be as swift after all. Who knows.
Morekaos seems to have nerves of steel so maybe I?ll give him my money and let him manage it.
we won't see a trend upwards until we get news that recoveries > new cases in the US. consider the fact that our known cases are severely depressed due to lack of testing - i can see us dropping another 20-30% once we're testing 20,000+ people per day, which we should hit by the end of the month. till then, load up on otm puts on your favorite index and start printing $$$
The only thing that I can see making this better within 2-3 weeks is if they discover a treatment using some combo of existing drugs. Otherwise, nothing will change. We can't leave our bunkers/lift curfews until this is gone, which means cure or vaccine.qwerty said:
qwerty
Well-known member
daedalus said:
We shall see. I think the reaction of being supportive of the spread will turn when people stop getting paid and start losing jobs. The government can only do so much. A vaccine/cure is 6-18 months away, can?t put every one on the governments dime. At some point the system collapses.
Cornflakes
Active member
I imagine this ride will include some of the...
- we test lot more now and numbers are bad...crash
-some govt. intervention...boom
-we peak the number of cases
-we start rolling off the peak...boom
- earnings start rolling in April/may - crash and boom depending on who is presenting what data
-companies look at their balance sheets and forecast and start cutting jobs...crash...
-People will cut spending, put off that Hawaii trip, cancel that cruise vacay...
This will take us through Summer.
Afte that best-case scenario we land back within +/-5% of 2JAN2020 indexes by year end.
Worst case scenario we land 30% off.
- we test lot more now and numbers are bad...crash
-some govt. intervention...boom
-we peak the number of cases
-we start rolling off the peak...boom
- earnings start rolling in April/may - crash and boom depending on who is presenting what data
-companies look at their balance sheets and forecast and start cutting jobs...crash...
-People will cut spending, put off that Hawaii trip, cancel that cruise vacay...
This will take us through Summer.
Afte that best-case scenario we land back within +/-5% of 2JAN2020 indexes by year end.
Worst case scenario we land 30% off.
No one I've heard of is quitting their job over this. They are going to be fired. Just because you want to work at a job doesn't mean other people will want to be your customer. Food service, oil and gas, logistics, transportation of all flavors, etc. Job losses will be weighted heavily on the low skills and blue collar stuff, but if not stemmed, white collar jobs will be lost too. Education, finance, engineering...almost everything.qwerty said:
It WILL be up to the government to figure something out, and I can't stand that I just wrote that, but it is true. And whatever it is, we are not going to like it. We are going to have to hold our noses and take a huge bite of whatever it is they cook up.
morekaos
Well-known member
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Kings said:qwerty said:Kings said:lots of volatility these next few weeks. time to make some money >
Still about 85% cash in brokerage but getting gun shy now as the overreaction is considerably worse than I thought. I?m just assuming our 401ks are going to lose 50%.
I still think the comeback will be swift in the second half of the year if things resume back to normal in 2-3 weeks. I need to remind myself that things will get better over the longer term but getting a little bit harder every day.
Although the psychological impact of this may be longer lasting than I first anticipated so that bounce may not be as swift after all. Who knows.
Morekaos seems to have nerves of steel so maybe I?ll give him my money and let him manage it.
we won't see a trend upwards until we get news that recoveries > new cases in the US. consider the fact that our known cases are severely depressed due to lack of testing - i can see us dropping another 20-30% once we're testing 20,000+ people per day, which we should hit by the end of the month. till then, load up on otm puts on your favorite index and start printing $$$
Selling VXX OTM puts (with cushion) has been very profitable as the premiums are HUGE. Even on big up days, VXX does not tank like it used to probably because those up days are just short covering rallies.