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peppy said:
eyephone said:
I'm kind of skeptical. Get ready for a trade war.
Trump hires Navarro, the author of Death by China.

What's your prediction? Lock it in.

I can't until I get a better understanding of the situation. Almost Everybody is wondering about the import tax.
 
morekaos said:
All Aboard!!! The train is leaving the station!!.  Now that the rate hike is done we are set up to break out of a long term basing pattern.  Barring an unforeseen terrorist strike the next major sustained move will be UP

With just 4 trading days left and again barring some unforeseen event I'll pocket that 14% + return for the year thank you.
 
morekaos said:
morekaos said:
All Aboard!!! The train is leaving the station!!.  Now that the rate hike is done we are set up to break out of a long term basing pattern.  Barring an unforeseen terrorist strike the next major sustained move will be UP

With just 4 trading days left and again barring some unforeseen event I'll pocket that 14% + return for the year thank you.

Not bad, I'm about 3x that trading VIX options (not for the faint of heart trading).  Made 15%+ since the election alone.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
ps9 said:
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.

Been selling VIX calls the past few weeks.  I'll start mixing it up in 2016 with selling both VIX calls and puts.

Do you mostly have either calls or puts open most of the time?
 
Ready2Downsize said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
ps9 said:
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.

Been selling VIX calls the past few weeks.  I'll start mixing it up in 2016 with selling both VIX calls and puts.

Do you mostly have either calls or puts open most of the time?

It really depends on the front week that I'm trading.  For example, I've mostly sold VIX calls since the election but I've also sold VIX puts too.  Because volatility is so low and year-end is coming I've lightened up my positions but I'm selling more VIX puts last week and this week.  Because I sell VIX options, I use stops and/or straddles to hedge and protect myself.  I'm fine with taking losses because the losses can be made up and then some.  The more volatility the more than I can and have made in profits.  I also love the favorable tax treatment for gains on VIX options (60% of the gain, even if short term, is traded as long term cap gains for tax purposes). 
 
I really need to do something to soak up some of my wash sale carry forwards. I've been so busy the last couple years I haven't had time to trade anything but I've been meaning to look into your vix strategies.

I think you trade weeklies?
 
Ready2Downsize said:
I really need to do something to soak up some of my wash sale carry forwards. I've been so busy the last couple years I haven't had time to trade anything but I've been meaning to look into your vix strategies.

I think you trade weeklies?

Yeah, I trade the front weekly options ever since they became available last Oct.  Sometimes I'll trade the next week before the front week's options have expired to start setting my new positions.  My trading would fall into the risky speculative income generation category so definitely not for the faint of heart but good for excess at-risk capital for some.  I taught one of my friends to trade vix last year and he's make a tidy profit this year, we would text each other on ideas and timing.  Him and I have talked about opening some kind of fund in the future once he's got more time trading under his belt. 
 
Ready2Downsize said:
If you open up a fund u have to be registered as a broker. Got a friend going to the pokey for having a fund and not being registered.

How much time did your friend get?
 
He did but the judge still has to impose a formal sentence and it's not "guaranteed". The sentencing has been postponed a few times.

He had more "issues" than just not being registered. He probably wouldn't have been caught for just not being registered if it weren't for his other escapades.

 
Ready2Downsize said:
If you open up a fund u have to be registered as a broker. Got a friend going to the pokey for having a fund and not being registered.

Yeah, there's a lot that I'd have to learn about the process and rules when it comes to opening up a fund like that.  I would want to trade my money in the same fund too.  A part of me wonders if it'll be worth the headache of setting it all up and dealing with investors since the kind of trading that I do can be very volatile and is high risk but high reward.
 
from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I?m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..

Despite Trump euphoria, Wall Street's 2017 forecast is the most bearish annual outlook in 12 years

Even after post-election animal spirits boosted the S&P 500 to a near double-digit annual return in 2016, Wall Street's soothsayers ? equity strategists ? are the most bearish on equities for 2017 as they have been about a year since 2005.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html

That?s got me fired up.  Whatever happens this should be fun.  2017 is upon us, Let?s enjoy life.

Best wishes in this new year!!!
 
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