Dow?

[Liar Loan]

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.

Well, true investing has nothing to do with gambling.  If you approach it like one of your RE investments, looking for good cashflow opportunity, you will be fine in the long run.  The short term swings in the market will come and go.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.

It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term. 

 

[panda]

Haha... IHO. calling me out. Alright I will admit that i was wrong about 15,000 DOW, but you have to agree with me that the stock market is on crack right now.

But in my defense, you print me a trillion dollars and send it to me and I will show you hell of a time in Johns Creek. Forget Johns Creek, I will show you a hell a good time in Newport Coast  :-*

Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... care to comment on the 15k mark the Dow hit yesterday?

You may be right about John's Creek, but you have been very off about the Dow.

I want to hear your explanation because I admire people who can admit and explain their mistakes (still waiting on USC for his $40 call on Netflix too).

 

[panda]

Such great wisdom from the Trojanman.

It's like taking the SATs. You spend all your time studying and mastering every question possible in the critical reasoning section and not study anything else. You fail the analogy section, you fail reading comprehension, you fail sentence completion, you fail the entire math section, however in critical reasoning section you score in the 95%. In the real world, you will probably get a rejection letter from every community college, but in the real investing world.... you can do very well year after year.

"I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX."

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.

It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?

 

[snowblind40]

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.

It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term.

Can you explain this VIX/VXX option trading that you do? We're did you learn how to do this? Any links to learn more about this method you speak of?

 

[panda]

Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.

So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.

So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?

I'm not the one who made the "won't hit 13k" call.

To be clear, can you explain the reasons why the Dow did pass 13k, when you thought it wouldn't, and has even moved into record 15k territory.

I understand you don't think it will keep going up, but what I would like to know is you had reasons why you thought it wouldn't get above 13k, but it did.

Anyone can say "It's cyclical"... but when you call out specific marks, then there needs to be other evidence that supports it.

 

[panda]

IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable. 

Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.

So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?

I'm not the one who made the "won't hit 13k" call.

To be clear, can you explain the reasons why the Dow did pass 13k, when you thought it wouldn't, and has even moved into record 15k territory.

I understand you don't think it will keep going up, but what I would like to know is you had reasons why you thought it wouldn't get above 13k, but it did.

Anyone can say "It's cyclical"... but when you call out specific marks, then there needs to be other evidence that supports it.

 

[nosuchreality]

IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable. 

It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.

The alternative at this point is not feasible.  Literally, multiple governments and countries will collapse.

 

[socal78]

Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

I had the same thoughts reading this thread. It's the compulsion to correct other people, as I've been reminded again recently being the latest one on the receiving end. Everybody wants to be "right". Some more than others. Some have trouble letting things go. And some just can not drop it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

I had the same thoughts reading this thread. It's the compulsion to correct other people, as I've been reminded again recently being the latest one on the receiving end. Everybody wants to be "right". Some more than others. Some have trouble letting things go. And some just can not drop it.

Like quoting that and bringing it back up isn't "letting things go".

I guess some just can't drop it.

 

[socal78]

Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

I had the same thoughts reading this thread. It's the compulsion to correct other people, as I've been reminded again recently being the latest one on the receiving end. Everybody wants to be "right". Some more than others. Some have trouble letting things go. And some just can not drop it.

Like quoting that and bringing it back up isn't "letting things go".

I guess some just can't drop it.

Aww, Iho... our first real fight in 5 years. I'm getting sentimental. Now that you've gotten the last word in, which I know is super important to you and I promise to always let you have... let's hug it out. Come on, I know you secretly do like me. It's true, you can be really irritating sometimes (as can I if you only knew me in real life!) but I'm not letting you go anywhere, Mister!

Send me a smiley hug back so we can bury the hatchet. (No, not a smiley with a hatchet!)

 

[daedalus]

It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.

Do you think it is possible to inflate away old debt while keeping new debt cheap?

 

[nosuchreality]

It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.

Do you think it is possible to inflate away old debt while keeping new debt cheap?

As long as too much money is chasing nothing better to do, yes.

And there's a lot of money out there looking for a home.



But my original response is mostly tongue in cheek.  The western governments have painted themselves into a corner.  They have to sustain the current house of cards by printing money.  Eventually, it'll create run-away inflation.  Unless you think 20% annual housing gains are the new normal.

Fiat dollars buying fiat stock making fiat gains. 

In the end, the question is how many of those fiat dollars is it going to take to fill the gas tank and buy pound of chicken and veggies for dinner?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Dow almost at 15.5k... every time I think it's going to burst, it goes higher.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Me no know econ... "circular flow" sounds like something related to after sitting on the throne.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?

 

[qwerty]

Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?

When you put your money in

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It's kind of in... my 401k has been bonkers the last 2-3 years.