Dow?

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I have a conspiracy theory on the market that maybe needs a poll to see how many people this holds true for.

I work for a fortune 500 and today is payday.  We are paid monthly and it's always the 2nd to last Friday of every month.  While I  haven't checked historic quotes (going back years),  I've noticed that about 8 out of 10 of my last "paydays" the dow has increased 100 points or more.

The theory is that if hundreds/thousands of large companies pay their employees a monthly salary on a similar day, then someone/something is boosting the market on these days so that employees get less shares for their $'s spent. 

Of course this could be complete coincidence (or nonsense) but it's happening again today, so just thought I'd throw it out there.

If this consistently holds true, it wouldn't be a bad play to go heavy on SPY or QQQ weekly calls the day before each payday.  Even if I was only right 70-80-% of the time, I could make a good chunk of change over time.
 
aquabliss said:
I have a conspiracy theory on the market that maybe needs a poll to see how many people this holds true for.

I work for a fortune 500 and today is payday.  We are paid monthly and it's always the 2nd to last Friday of every month.  While I  haven't checked historic quotes (going back years),  I've noticed that about 8 out of 10 of my last "paydays" the dow has increased 100 points or more.

The theory is that if hundreds/thousands of large companies pay their employees a monthly salary on a similar day, then someone/something is boosting the market on these days so that employees get less shares for their $'s spent. 

Of course this could be complete coincidence (or nonsense) but it's happening again today, so just thought I'd throw it out there.

If this consistently holds true, it wouldn't be a bad play to go heavy on SPY or QQQ weekly calls the day before each payday.  Even if I was only right 70-80-% of the time, I could make a good chunk of change over time.
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Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 
 
Irvine Dream said:
Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 
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You're right.  Stock tend to raise at the end or beginning of the month and tend to fall in the middle of the month due to the reason you just stated.


Turn of the Month
Turn of the month is a term that refers to the tendency of stocks to rise at the turn of a month and fall in the middle of a month. This tendency is mostly related to periodic new money flows directed toward mutual funds at a beginning of every month
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http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/seasonaltrends.asp
 
aquabliss said:
Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 
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Oops ya sorry that's what I meant that because all the 401k $ is going in (on payday) that the market rises.
 
There was a whispered system at my company when I was a new hire, back in the late '90s.  We called it BOWSOF.  Buy on Wednesday, Sell on Friday.  I ran a program to calculate the return and over a period of the most recent 2 or 3 years, it returned close to 300%.  As far as I know, I'm the only person who actually did the research to calculate the exact return.  I went all in, with my meager 401k.  Shortly thereafter, they instituted penalties for churning, and soon after that we were bought by another company, and the system fell apart completely.

I was so intrigued, I recall I spent a few hours on a plane flight back then running optimization studies (go Supercharts 4!) on trying to find exactly what day of the week to buy, and which to sell, and I did it on a number of companies, including the major indices.  I did not come up with anything of merit.  That said, I haven't looked at it since then.
 
If there was a trading pattern that guaranteed grear returns everyone would probably know about it. And it would be callled winning :-)
 
At least my 401k is doing well.

Just like real estate, you have to ride it out (interestingly enough, of all the the funds I can put my 401k in, the real estate one has the best return).

#InTheory
 
The California Court Company said:
I believe the cost basis of most of Qodzilla's PBR stock is still higher than current market price.

eyephone said:
qwerty said:
another 5% pop in PBR - newport beach here i come!
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You should start packing for Newport Beach, because PBR made a big run.
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yeah im averaged in at a tad over $6 on 15,000 shares. so almost break even now.  its at 5.84 right now.  still think this will hit 12 by 12/31/15.
 
Currently, China's stock market is so reminds me of year 2000, dot-com bubble.  Even the cleaning lady starts buying stock, I think now it's good time to short. >:D

China stocks may be in serious bubble
Some say that when the average ?mom-and-pop? retail investors get back into the stock market, it could be time to get out. But what about when even teenagers start buying?

The Shanghai Composite Index is hovering near its seven-year closing high of 3,691, hit on Tuesday when the index completed a 10-session winning streak.

The lure of flush times on the Shanghai market is sweeping in unlikely investors by the hundreds of thousands. This week, both the China Securities Daily and the Beijing Morning Post had dueling reports about recent college graduates and, yes, teenagers buying shares.

Yet another report, this time by the Beijing News newspaper, relates that at the Beijing trading halls of China Securities Co., ?even the cleaning lady? has opened an account to play the market.
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Funny thing you mentioned Chinese stocks. I am looking at a Chinese oil stock, SNP.


lnc said:
Currently, China's stock market is so reminds me of year 2000, dot-com bubble.  Even the cleaning lady starts buying stock, I think now it's good time to short. >:D

China stocks may be in serious bubble
Some say that when the average ?mom-and-pop? retail investors get back into the stock market, it could be time to get out. But what about when even teenagers start buying?

The Shanghai Composite Index is hovering near its seven-year closing high of 3,691, hit on Tuesday when the index completed a 10-session winning streak.

The lure of flush times on the Shanghai market is sweeping in unlikely investors by the hundreds of thousands. This week, both the China Securities Daily and the Beijing Morning Post had dueling reports about recent college graduates and, yes, teenagers buying shares.

Yet another report, this time by the Beijing News newspaper, relates that at the Beijing trading halls of China Securities Co., ?even the cleaning lady? has opened an account to play the market.
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Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

EDIT: This was one of a few April Fool's posts.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.
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Yup-ps9 is the refi guru, also new car broker, food expert, and amazon product tester.  ;)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.
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Hey man, go big or go home.  Gotta lose money to make money.  Too bad you backed out of my offer to go in on a Papa Murphy franchise.  Got a killer lease deal from TIC.  You could've gotten a 6CWG in a couple years
 
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