Dow?

[irvinehomeowner]

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

 

[qwerty]

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

 

[octrends]

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

 

[qwerty]

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

QE money is going to buying treasuries, its not going to stocks.  The intended lower yields are supposed to push people into stocks.  Are you saying QE is going directly to equities?

 

[usctrojancpa]

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

QE money is going to buying treasuries, its not going to stocks.  The intended lower yields are supposed to push people into stocks.  Are you saying QE is going directly to equities?

It is going into equities indirectly via psychology...think of it as an invisible safety net for stocks that the Fed signaled to the markets.  I've been betting that we won't have a big crash via selling VIX (volatility) way-out-the-money calls with the goal of making $3k-$5k per month since the beginning of the year.  Took some big losses back in May due to the calls going through my stop limit losses but since then I haven't had a losing month with some big months in Sept. and Dec.  Remember, the trend is your friend (until it's not a good trend).    I learned to better hedge my VIX positions by buying VIX calls, buying SPY (S&P) puts, and other ETFs.

I'll tell you this, the higher we keep grinding the more painful of a correction we will have.  When the market begins to get a hint that the Fed will be taking away the sugar rush (QE and low rates) WATCH OUT!  Europe may also be that annoying cold slap of reality (those damn socialists).  I have a few friends that have tracked my strategy (on a smaller level) with some good success too. 

 

[panda]

IHO you give me more credit than i deserve as my knowledge about the market is probably more limited than yours. I realized early on that i am terrible trader (God did not gift me in this area), but i am usually right about the long term trends. I am currently heavily short the DOW (trader), but still hold my long term positions in Gold, Silver, Energy, & Agriculture (investor).

I see a trend in the DOW that changes every 20 year cycle. If my crystal ball is correct we will end up 10 - 15% give or take where we started in the DOW in January 2000 by 2020. Also listen to the little bird inside and do not listen to anyone when the right time to buy stocks and real estate. I knew when the dollar index reach 89 in June 2010 and I need to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. I posted if i should make this dollar/Euro trade on TalkIrvine, and my friend Trojanman aka "Martin" posted "NO Panda don't do it, the EURO is about the collapse!" Unfortunately i listened to Martin Hahaha... i knew I should have listened to the little bird inside

   

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

 

[usctrojancpa]

IHO you give me more credit than i deserve as my knowledge about the market is probably more limited than yours. I realized early on that i am terrible trader (God did not gift me in this area), but i am usually right about the long term trends. I am currently heavily short the DOW (trader), but still hold my long term positions in Gold, Silver, Energy, & Agriculture (investor).

I see a trend in the DOW that changes every 20 year cycle. If my crystal ball is correct we will end up 10 - 15% give or take where we started in the DOW in January 2000 by 2020. Also listen to the little bird inside and do not listen to anyone when the right time to buy stocks and real estate. I knew when the dollar index reach 89 in June 2010 and I need to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. I posted if i should make this dollar/Euro trade on TalkIrvine, and my friend Trojanman aka "Martin" posted "NO Panda don't do it, the EURO is about the collapse!" Unfortunately i listened to Martin Hahaha... i knew I should have listened to the little bird inside

   

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

Currency trading is something that I have no luck with at all.  I still think the EURO will be in trouble but I guess I didn't see QE2 coming.  I seem to do better with my VIX option trading so I'll stick to that.

 

[morekaos]

No suprise, very predictable

 

[octrends]

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:

If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.  Trust me. 

Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

QE money is going to buying treasuries, its not going to stocks.  The intended lower yields are supposed to push people into stocks.  Are you saying QE is going directly to equities?

Here's the link

Rep. Alan Grayson: "Has the Federal Reserve Ever Tried to Manipulate the Stock Market?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXmNpdYpfnk

there's a indirect acceptance that they do place orders thru Primary Dealers, and who r these primary dealers, it's the top 4 banks.

see carefully around 3 min or so.

 

[sonoma]

In all seriousness, I think it is very important to understand your investment vehicles, whether it be in the housing market, stock market, bonds, or whatever.  If you are working for the man, then the only way to get ahead in the U.S. is to be frugal with your money and invest what you save. 

I would not let the other man (mutual fund advisor or money advisor) take a cut of your profits.  If you really want to learn more about the stock market I would recommend a subscription to Barron's. 

My take about the stock market is this, the Dow consist of the biggest 30 companies in America.  Well, these companies make roughly 30-40% of their profit from overseas.  With many major countries already out of a recession, these big companies are doing rather well.  Now, on top of this, the U.S. Is printing a lot of money each month, eventually there will be inflation.  This will lead to higher prices in goods.  When this happens employers normally give 3 percent raises each year. So...the economy will be humming along.  Eventually, the government will raise taxes to pay down their debt, but by that time every will be drinking the koolaid and won't care. 

And then the next cycle starts all over again. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... what is your next prediction for the Dow?

Your "won't hit 13k" hasn't been working out... care to course correct?

Still hard to believe, Dow is highest since 2007, where is all this investor money coming from... probably the banks.

 

[homer_simpson]

Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... what is your next prediction for the Dow?

Your "won't hit 13k" hasn't been working out... care to course correct?

Still hard to believe, Dow is highest since 2007, where is all this investor money coming from... probably the banks.

I can tell you but then I have to kill you!! 

 

[morekaos]

Told you

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... care to comment on the 15k mark the Dow hit yesterday?

You may be right about John's Creek, but you have been very off about the Dow.

I want to hear your explanation because I admire people who can admit and explain their mistakes (still waiting on USC for his $40 call on Netflix too).

 

[qwerty]

Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

Did you go all out and put your money in stocks because u knew the Dow was going to hit 15k?

When panda made his call I would have thought we would have seen 13k first before 15k.

I just bought SDS a couple of days ago cause I think it will go back own to about 14.5k and then back to 15k. Until whatever bad news hits which makes everyone run from stocks.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge.

 

[qwerty]

Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge.

you are forgiven grasshopper.

 

[Liar Loan]

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Just to be clear, I'm still long the market for now, but I'm trying to position everything to be prepared for a crash when/if it happens.  I believe it will happen once investors anticipate rate increases from the Fed.  For now, let's all enjoy the "free" money.

 

[morekaos]

As usual I am in complete agreement with LL.  I do hold open a hedging VIXY position just in case, but for now...don't step in front of a speeding train.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.