Does anyone ever read IHB anymore?

[rkp]

@rkp:

Don't get me wrong... I admire the fact that you can save enough to build up your 401k and still have money to invest... but I also remember you saying that you were looking for some help with investments.

Your story about your Pa-In-Law has me wondering if that's the reason you prefer to look for non-market investments rather than just using a stock broker.

We should start a 3CWG home building business and compete with TIC... hehe.

you are correct.  i definitely want help with 401k and stock market.  i have trouble picking stocks as i tend to be a gambler and get addicted to quick trades - stupid things like playing with FAZ and FAS and chasing the market   long term holds i have done ok.  i think i have gotten over 8% for last 10 years between my companies stock participation plan and stocks i have held for long periods with div reinvestment.  not the kind of returns that i would like with the risk and hence the help.

lets do it - or we can just buy TIC product, tear part of the house and add that 3rd garage and flip it!  i smell millions

 

[irvinehomeowner]

What are the margins?  I'm not planning to invest.  Just curious.

As a side note... welcome to TI Liar Loan... hopefully we'll see some more posts from you here.

 

[IndieDev]

Larry is a smart guy, but the Vegas fund is a loss leader.

I may not be his number 1 fan but he is intelligent and had the gutts to go against the herd.  That being said, Vegas and Orange County are nothing alike so you he better know his way out there or he might step in some poop.

Yeah, he deserves respect.

But am I wrong or off? You have experience with the LV market. I did a cursory check of the numbers in LV about a month ago, and the margins for either fund option (flip or rent) don't look appealing to me. Maybe I'm missing something.

What are the margins?  I'm not planning to invest.  Just curious.

Go to Craigslist, find a home for rent, make sure it has an address available so you can find out the purchase price of the home.

Once you do that, calculate the cap rate (e.g - The rental income after expenses, "net"). For my own personal risk tolerance, I want 10-15 percent or I'm not interested. This will vary from person to person. I have friends who have invested in Phoenix and are just happy if they are positive after expenses, that's silly because I feel it's working too hard for too little money, but I digress. 

If you can find any Zip codes in Vegas that are returning more than 8% regularly, I'd be shocked. Even though my sample was admittedly small (around 20 properties), most of them were in the 4%-6% range, and some even lower. The rates don't work out for me personally, then you take into account that "Larry" is skimming his share off the top, it's just not appealing enough for my wallet.

Also I do a little rough estimation about the possible upside/downside for Vegas as a whole taking into account overall growth (population, jobs, etc). It just looks too hostile for me.

I think Vegas looks good to Larry because he's comparing the city to Irvine which has negative cap rates pretty much across the board. When it comes to "investment properties", pretty much everything looks better than Irvine from an investor point of view. Plus, Las Vegas has experienced a harder crash than most cities in the U.S, so the NOI numbers are "starting" to look good, but IMHO they're not there yet. Also you have to ask yourself, will they ever get there? My feeling is not for a long time and I can park my money in more profitable pastures until it gets there.

 

[rkp]

Larry is a smart guy, but the Vegas fund is a loss leader.

I may not be his number 1 fan but he is intelligent and had the gutts to go against the herd.  That being said, Vegas and Orange County are nothing alike so you he better know his way out there or he might step in some poop.

Yeah, he deserves respect.

But am I wrong or off? You have experience with the LV market. I did a cursory check of the numbers in LV about a month ago, and the margins for either fund option (flip or rent) don't look appealing to me. Maybe I'm missing something.

What are the margins?  I'm not planning to invest.  Just curious.

Go to Craigslist, find a home for rent, make sure it has an address available so you can find out the purchase price of the home.

Once you do that, calculate the cap rate (e.g - The rental income after expenses, "net"). For my own personal risk tolerance, I want 10-15 percent or I'm not interested. This will vary from person to person. I have friends who have invested in Phoenix and are just happy if they are positive after expenses, that's silly because I feel it's working too hard for too little money, but I digress. 

If you can find any Zip codes in Vegas that are returning more than 8% regularly, I'd be shocked. Even though my sample was admittedly small (around 20 properties), most of them were in the 4%-6% range, and some even lower. The rates don't work out for me personally, then you take into account that "Larry" is skimming his share off the top, it's just not appealing enough for my wallet.

Also I do a little rough estimation about the possible upside/downside for Vegas as a whole taking into account overall growth (population, jobs, etc). It just looks too hostile for me.

I think Vegas looks good to Larry because he's comparing the city to Irvine which has negative cap rates pretty much across the board. When it comes to "investment properties", pretty much everything looks better than Irvine from an investor point of view. Plus, Las Vegas has experienced a harder crash than most cities in the U.S, so the NOI numbers are "starting" to look good, but IMHO they're not there yet. Also you have to ask yourself, will they ever get there? My feeling is not for a long time and I can park my money in more profitable pastures until it gets there.

are you finding 10-15 percent CAP rates in areas prime areas?  i have friends who own many small houses houses in the boonies of IE and rent to migrant workers etc.  they make a great return but the properties suck and i dont see them going up anytime soon.  where as you can make 5% in south OC in better neighborhoods with a shooting chance that values go up in 10%.  i am yet to find neighborhoods that might appreciate and are providing more than 10%...

 

[IndieDev]

Creating a rental home empire in OC,  or any nice area of SoCal, is a sucker's game. It's less of a sucker's game in LV, but still not good enough for my money.

 

[Liar Loan]

Larry is a smart guy, but the Vegas fund is a loss leader.

I may not be his number 1 fan but he is intelligent and had the gutts to go against the herd.  That being said, Vegas and Orange County are nothing alike so you he better know his way out there or he might step in some poop.

Yeah, he deserves respect.

But am I wrong or off? You have experience with the LV market. I did a cursory check of the numbers in LV about a month ago, and the margins for either fund option (flip or rent) don't look appealing to me. Maybe I'm missing something.

What are the margins?  I'm not planning to invest.  Just curious.

Go to Craigslist, find a home for rent, make sure it has an address available so you can find out the purchase price of the home.

Once you do that, calculate the cap rate (e.g - The rental income after expenses, "net"). For my own personal risk tolerance, I want 10-15 percent or I'm not interested. This will vary from person to person. I have friends who have invested in Phoenix and are just happy if they are positive after expenses, that's silly because I feel it's working too hard for too little money, but I digress. 

If you can find any Zip codes in Vegas that are returning more than 8% regularly, I'd be shocked. Even though my sample was admittedly small (around 20 properties), most of them were in the 4%-6% range, and some even lower. The rates don't work out for me personally, then you take into account that "Larry" is skimming his share off the top, it's just not appealing enough for my wallet.

Also I do a little rough estimation about the possible upside/downside for Vegas as a whole taking into account overall growth (population, jobs, etc). It just looks too hostile for me.

I think Vegas looks good to Larry because he's comparing the city to Irvine which has negative cap rates pretty much across the board. When it comes to "investment properties", pretty much everything looks better than Irvine from an investor point of view. Plus, Las Vegas has experienced a harder crash than most cities in the U.S, so the NOI numbers are "starting" to look good, but IMHO they're not there yet. Also you have to ask yourself, will they ever get there? My feeling is not for a long time and I can park my money in more profitable pastures until it gets there.

OK, I wasn't sure if you meant Larry's funds or the market as a whole.  The promised/actual returns on the funds were what I was curious about prior to rkp chiming in.  I think the flipping game in this market is trickier than it sounds.  You can't depend on appreciation to bail you out, so the margin for error is small.  With all the success stories that we hear about, it makes me wonder about the flipside.  How many investors are taking losses?

 

[IndieDev]

I have yet to hear about many successful "Flipping" stories. Not saying it's not possible, but in this market, I'd call it an exception rather than anything that happens with regularity.

I've seen a few Hail Mary flips in Irvine, Tustin, and some parts of LA County (West Side) that I think have no shot of being profitable unless you get some chindians looking to park some money state side.

 

[akim997]

Its a bit unnerving to see people discussing investments on a board like this...

 

[rkp]

Its a bit unnerving to see people discussing investments on a board like this...

why?

 

[akim997]

Well, I guess discussion is one thing, but when it starts leading to action, that's unsettling.  Similar to the current proposal to revise the definition and applicaiton of "fiduciary" (Although DOL just delayed their proposal re: ERISA), you want to find someone who is going to be "at risk" for recommendations.  Investment companies even price "fiduciary risk" in ROE calcs, basically indicating there is a cost of doing this type of business.  At the end of the day, do you think joe average on xyz message board is willing to take fiduciary responsiblity for what is said here?  Not a chance. 

Buyer beware, be careful who you trust, and always do your homework... because all the vultures out there scheming to take your money are doing theirs...

 

[Liar Loan]

There's a difference between providing professional advice and sharing ideas & opinions between friends.  I think it's implied by our anonymous screennames that this is not professional advice, and really no advice was given as part of this discussion anyway.

Anybody that doesn't do their own investment research is asking for trouble.  Professionals can't be trusted to have your best interests in mind.  Likewise, money managers can't be trusted to beat the market.  I was recently studying the average returns for hedge funds, net of fees, and guess what?  On average, they lag the performance of a buy & hold market index strategy.  The media tends to skew our beliefs on hedge funds and they report on the handful earning billions of dollars per year, but never seem to mention the hundreds that also went out of business.

One of the best lessons I've learned as an investor is to be skeptical of everything.  Optimism can be your worst enemy.

 

[IndieDev]

Anybody that doesn't do their own investment research is asking for trouble.  Professionals can't be trusted to have your best interests in mind. 

This guy gets it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So you guys are saying my 3CWG Investment Fund isn't going to work? Boo.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Anybody that doesn't do their own investment research is asking for trouble.  Professionals can't be trusted to have your best interests in mind. 

This guy gets it.

He sure does.  People want to pass off the job that they should be doing themselves on someone else and then are surprised when the outcome isn't what they expected.  At least for me, I know exactly what type of risk I'm taking and am in full control. 

 

[IndieDev]

"I lost all my money by taking advice from people on TalkIrvine!" Written by IndieDev

Top 10 seller, and WSJ approved, guaranteed.

 

[usctrojancpa]

"I lost all my money by taking advice from people on TalkIrvine!" Written by IndieDev

Top 10 seller, and WSJ approved, guaranteed.

Hahaha  Yeah, come to think of it...I doubt many people would have the stomach for my trading style/strategy.  :-X

 

[IndieDev]

"I lost all my money by taking advice from people on TalkIrvine!" Written by IndieDev

Top 10 seller, and WSJ approved, guaranteed.

Hahaha  Yeah, come to think of it...I doubt many people would have the stomach for my trading style/strategy.  :-X

You must be doing okay if you're looking for a $600,000+ home in Irvine.

 

[Liar Loan]

So you guys are saying my 3CWG Investment Fund isn't going to work? Boo.

Sure it will.  You convert each space in the garage into an unpermitted unit and rent it out!

 

[Liar Loan]

"I lost all my money by taking advice from people on TalkIrvine!" Written by IndieDev

Top 10 seller, and WSJ approved, guaranteed.

Hahaha  Yeah, come to think of it...I doubt many people would have the stomach for my trading style/strategy.  :-X

The great thing about hedge funds is the reporting requirements are, uh... very... lax.  You can lock up investors' money for 1-3 years while you lose it all for them.  Then just report steady returns of 10-12% each year.  That's how Uncle Bernie did it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So you guys are saying my 3CWG Investment Fund isn't going to work? Boo.

Sure it will.  You convert each space in the garage into an unpermitted unit and rent it out!

I'll rename it to "3CWG Irvine Slumlord Investment Fund".