CW REO's

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Let me add some info to this thread.</p>

<p>1. Coutrywide's website probably has about 1/3rd the inventory they really have. They do not have the capacity to convert these to listings as soon as they get them. Also do a title search of CW and Bank of New York (Countrywide's trustee) and you will find plenty of properties that are not on their website.</p>

<p>2. I was at the foreclosure auction on Tuesday. There was 8 bidders there with only two actually bidding who only bought 2 of the 10 homes. They are being postponed more and more by the beneficiary which means they are either trying to fix the borrowers loan or they can't handle all the foreclosures. There has been really any good deals and if they do get a bid it is only one. </p>

<p>3. NODs are coverting at a 40% ratio to REOs. So if you take the past six months of NODs 40% of them will be REO in the next six months adding at least 2500 more homes. The NODs are not getting any better as August is looking really ugly. I don't think that it will slow down anytime soon. </p>
 
Except Tax Collections....sorry I am on the rant, I hate paying Taxes that are spent by idiots to give them a sense of power....ie the Alaskan Senator on the Means & Appropriations Committee
 
Mino, I take it you are a regular over at <a href="http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/">TPM Muckraker</a>? BTW, it's the <em>whole</em> Alaska delegation that is rather . . . um, profitable.
 
<p>Anyone ever seen "The Corporation"?</p>

<p>It's a bone-chilling look at how business controls America.</p>

<p>I highly recommend it.</p>

<p>We place so much faith in capitalism, but it is truly scary what the consequences can be.</p>

<p>As the movie argues, corporations have a duty to enrich their shareholders - at any and all costs. And that it is immoral for them to take any actions that are in conflict with making maximum profits.</p>
 
I stumbled on channel 3 - they have a hearing (on housing) going on that is really interesting.
 
<p>graphix,</p>

<p>Can you shed light on the percentage or NOD's after resets?</p>

<p>With that and IR's graph on resets it would shed some good light on future REO's.</p>

<p>If 50% of arms go to NOD after reset and 40% of NOD's go to REO. Something like that.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<em>"Are you changing your plans from 2010?"</em>





No, I will probably buy then. Even if prices drop a bit further, I will be saving on my rent, and I will own the house long enough that I won't care. I won't be in any hurry. There will be deals from 2010 to 2012 at least. Based on the chart above and the delay in defaults turning into REOs, I don't see much chance of appreciation through 2014.


<em>


"I wonder if there will be a huge fall from grace for it when we look back in 20 years."</em>





This has already begun: <a href="http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/">The Mess that Greenspan Made</a>.
 
<p>tr - I'd love to be able to take a stab at that but all I would be doing is taking a wild guess. The Credit Suisse chart is on a macro level whereas my foreclosure stats are on a micro level. What I know is that 40% of the ARMs are in California. Some will dispute this stat but I have looked at the MBS pools and I can tell you that the amount of ARMs in CA is staggering. Judging by that and the lending changes the NODs are going to get a lot worse. </p>

<p>Starting in December I think we will start to see record numbers of NODs and it will keep getting worse throughout the rest of 2008. When the NODs starting picking up it was mostly loans from 2006 and 2005 and now about 1/3rd of them are from 2004 and even 2003. This will only be compounded as home prices continue to deteriorate. </p>

<p>We have yet to really see what the credit crunch will do to NODs and I think that the 50% that go NOD after the reset will get higher. Some of these people will have lower rates on the reset than if they were to get a new loan. Option ARMs are a whole other story and when they recast it will be a complete shock to many.</p>
 
Eva...


<em>"Mino, I take it you are a regular over at <a href="http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/">TPM Muckraker</a>? BTW, it's the <em>whole</em> Alaska delegation that is rather . . . um, profitable."





</em>Actually never been to that site till you showed me the link. However, I am a rather observant person that listens to alot of radio and tv talk shows and I just really get FED up with how our Govt bounces back and forth on issues that need to be addressed and never are.





We earmark more money for frivolous things but can't fix health care, tax laws, and social security which are 3 important pillars of what makes America so great.
 
<p>given the current inventory compared to the number of sales, we are now looking at over one full year of inventory in all major western cities. Phoenix is an absolute waste land and will go down in history as a tragic demise of a once wonderful town.</p>

<p>My co-worker's sister works for CW REO dept in Texas. They are getting over 500 new REO's a week and the number is climbing.</p>

<p>It is going to take a long ass time to clear this inventory. Builders WAAAYYYY over-estimated demand. IR can fill you in on this better than I can, but the homes that are now coming to completion had their plans ironed out years ago. By the time these houses are coming available the market has drastically changed. The builders are left saying, WTF just happened?? WTF are we going to do with all these houses???</p>
 
<em>"given the current inventory compared to the number of sales, we are now looking at over one full year of inventory in all major western cities. "</em>





OMG, that is amazing. I had no idea it was <em>that </em>bad.
 
<i>" missed that. Not close in being ready/able or willing?



What happened with the sale? Is this a timing the market (on both ends) play?"</i><p>


Janet - Yes, not close in being ready and willing. We are able to buy whenever we desire.<p>


Yes, we are timimg the market on both ends. Looking at all the variables, I would estimate that it will be years before the re market bottoms out. Maybe four years, maybe more.
 
<p>>>>My co-worker's sister works for CW REO dept in Texas. They are getting over 500 new REO's a week and the number is climbing.<<<</p>

<p>lendingmaestro - if you get a chance, try to ask her what their plan is for handling all these REOs. i still hear of many short sale offers getting turned down.</p>

<p>After some thought, I think the reason these REOs are are not being let go immediately is because the banks are in complete confusion and shock with how to deal with it. After all, banks are run by people, and these people have probably never in their career encountered such a situation.</p>

<p>In the end, they will succumb to market forces. And market forces dictates that homes were built to be lived in. Homes must either be rented out or sold to the next buyer no matter the price. It is extremely rare for it to make economic sense for a house to be empty. </p>

<p>Give it time. You can only hold back the water in a leaky dam for so long.</p>
 
<p>Did anyone catch the hearing today? I had to go out, but I recorded it.</p>

<p>I will tell you - workouts are coming.</p>

<p>A while back I posted that Indymac sent me a loan mod offer. I was 2 years into a 10/1 ARM, and had always prepaid by two months. They were offering a FREE rate reduction of 1.5% off my note rate - unsolicited. I thought it was incredibly stupid of them, since I am a gold borrower.</p>

<p>I am not denying there are big, big problems coming, but I would not bet the farm on that Credit Suisse chart.</p>
 
<p>I hope you accepted the offer. Indymac's main investor is Deutchse Bank. Note modifications are mutually beneficial. The life span of a CDO is less than 3 years regardless if the income stream is from a 30 year fixed are a 5/1 ARM.</p>
 
<p>Maestro,</p>

<p>If they charge no fees, how would it benefit them? </p>

<p>Sorry, if it should be obvious!</p>
 
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