Culture, Class, Community and Race in Irvine and Beyond

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>That makes perfect sense. You have the people who make the games for the people who bought the games and the ginormous TVs to play them on.</p>
 
Okay, I'm here, what happened to the party? I'm going hiking with a group in a few hours and my cat kept trying to sit on my face so I figured I might as well get up and check on the latest econo-porn happenings. I don't know about you guys, but I am feeling like an online gamer this week: totally addicted.
 
ISM - Me, too. It all started with "THE MOST IMPORTANT POST EVER," and went downhill from there. I'm not one of the top posters, but if there was a listing "most page refreshes" I'd win top prize hands down. It feels like all the pieces are in place for prices to return to "affordable" for responsible people and yet . . .
 
<p>Eva:</p>

<p>I don't know what the topic is about anymore, but since you're probably still around.... let me ask you -</p>

<p>have you heard when Orchard Hills expected to open - the homes... (the website says apartments in late 2007)? and, what price per sqft is everyone aiming for?</p>

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I drive by there often. I believe it says something in 2008. Even though, only the apts. up. I hope it's not like Portola Springs whereby they slow down construction due to market conditions.
 
<p>Reason:</p>

<p>I thought I read somewhere on this site that Laing and Laing Luxury are building homes in Orchard Hills - I've seen future communities listed on their websites for other locations (Huntington Beach, Crystal Cove), but nothing for Orchard Hills or Irvine. </p>
 
<p>And usually, if it's not on their site regarding the community. Could it be they're a long way off from building out? I read here, also regarding John Laing being the builder in OH. I would think they would capitalize on that and have their name on one of makeshift sign in front of the project. </p>

<p>Interestingly, I spoke with a Laing sales rep. at another community. And she stated that JHL is own by a company from Dubai. I really don't care who owns it. But I just had thought it to be an American own company.</p>
 
<p>Getting off tangent. On the corner of Jeffrey and Irvine Blvd., a new community is coming up call "Stonegate". Down Jeffrey less than a mile on Trabuco, the land is prep for another community (Not yet name).</p>

<p>Now we all know that Vilages of Columbus is having a tough time selling. That goes for Portola Springs, also. Then there's East Woodbury. </p>

<p>In this slow RE market? What's going on? Is there something with the Irvine housing market that I am not aware of?</p>
 
Oh sure, I run off to breakfast and the site gets all active.





Re OH: All I have is rumor and innuendo to go on. As I understand it, plenty of builders are PO'd with TIC because they won't reduce their land price. Absent such a reduction, they can't lower their prices enough to sell homes. The only people who seem to be going forward are Liang because the new owners are willing to dump money in. I have no idea about ppsf, but figure high as TIC is trying to market the community as the "Bel Air" of Irvine. (Uh, yeah. "Bel Air" of Irvine . . . would that be similar to Calabasas?)
 
>>In this slow RE market? What's going on? Is there something with the Irvine housing market that I am not aware of?





I had heard that Bren wanted all his developments in place by 2010. Given the slow pace of sales, I think they are doing the pre-construction and leaving it at that. I don't know how the Mello-Roos bonds get paid if there are no homeowners to pay them.
 
<p>How are the Mello-Roos bonds determined? Why are they 25 years in some communities and up to 40+ years in others (wasn't it 43 years in Portola Springs or something like that)?</p>

<p> </p>
 
As we know, lending guidelines are getting tighter for the individual buyers. I am sure the same applies to builders? If so, are the builders unable to get favorable rates or unable to get funded for the projects. Could this be a possibility as to the why projects such as the new communities are just sitting idle?
 
In a smoke-filled room.





Ok, maybe not truly smoke-filled, but essentially so. I'm not sure on the details since I've never worked on one of those transactions, but I sense that once the amount of money needed is determined, the financial advisor does some modeling based on the number homes and their sizes and the interest rate that can be obtained in the market. Longer maturities allow for lower payments on maturity dates.





If someone could host a 4.25 MB pdf on a server, I have a sample Official Statement from a Seal Beach Mello-Roos bond issue that is really boring, but sort of explains how assessment district bonds work. (There are websites that post copies of these in the public domain, so no worries about privacy issues, or anything like that.). Alternately, I can e-mail it to you - evalseraphim@yahoo.com
 
Reason - I'm suspecting poor demand is why everything is nearly idle. Also, according to one sales agent, TIC makes you sell out, or nearly sell out, the current phase before you can release a new one. If no one is buying, why sink money into men and materials for a house that will sit and rot waiting for a buyer.*





Cash flow is an issue, too. Like everything else, I think construction loans will be more difficult to come by - as you noted.





*That said, some builders are building homes just so they can liquidate their land purchases.
 
Hahaha, your last question was actually your first question about an hour ago. Sorry, for ignoring that. It's just I dont have the answer or dare guess.
 
I ask because I thought I read somewhere that a good target was $300/sqft ("how to reduce selling price of new homes"), which I'm seeing these days for new-construction homes. I'm just wondering how low some will be waiting for it to go because it seems like the only way the price per sq ft can go much lower is if the cost of the land is reduced which is not up to the builder.
 
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