Could Irvine turn into the Beverly Hills of Orange County?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="ABC123" date=1242741265]I am hoping that Irvine turns into the next Beverly Hills. I can't wait for Paris Hilton or Lindsay Lohan to move next door to me.</blockquote>
I call dibs on Lindsay. haha
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1242741679]oh how I miss those days when threads would go ten pages long accusing BK of being racist against Asians.</blockquote>


Looks like we've got another newb to bite, so this one has potential.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/search_results/0a94752bd3d04d8fc9c30be0103f85fe/">The search for BK Racist is interesting........</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/3938/">................but this thread is even better.</a>



I can't believe BK talks about this stuff with us for free. He charges his clients a buttload of money to share the same info.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1242741307][quote author="ABC123" date=1242741265]I am hoping that Irvine turns into the next Beverly Hills. I can't wait for Paris Hilton or Lindsay Lohan to move next door to me.</blockquote>
I call dibs on Lindsay. haha</blockquote>


<img src="http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k252/RTBrooke/hijack.gif" alt="" />



She needs to gain 30 pounds, and you aren't her type - chicks only.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1242742981][quote author="ABC123" date=1242741679]oh how I miss those days when threads would go ten pages long accusing BK of being racist against Asians.</blockquote>


Looks like we've got another newb to bite, so this one has potential.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/search_results/0a94752bd3d04d8fc9c30be0103f85fe/">The search for BK Racist is interesting........</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/3938/">................but this thread is even better.</a>



I can't believe BK talks about this stuff with us for free. He charges his clients a buttload of money to share the same info.</blockquote>


yeah, I probably should not have not interrupted and just let things continue. It's the only entertainment I can afford these days.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242721899][quote author="financeguy" date=1242717240][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242715550]You need to keep in mind when considering the price declines that REOs only determine the rate of decline, the price point to which properties will fall is determined by financing terms. People are now being required to really afford houses out of their real incomes. Prices will fall to these levels because that is all the more people can pay. Demand is measured in dollars not in desirability.</blockquote>


But I?m not talking about the people that can?t afford to buy a home in Irvine, as you say, that is not the relevant demand. I am referring to an increase in demand from those individuals that can afford to pay.



Most individuals in this blog seem to value homes in Irvine at the pre-bubble price and then assume that things will come down to an inflation adjusted pre-bubble price eventually. Right or wrong, my point is that what if the perceived value of Irvine for a large group of individuals has risen since the pre-bubble era and will continue to rise due to this MIRAGE phenomenon referred to earlier.



Therefore the individual who can afford to pay +600K (20% down or all cash) for SFR and might have bought in Turtle Rock in 2000 now pays for the same SFR in Westpark because they now view Westpark as being worth +600K.</blockquote>


I doubt too many of the posters on this blog or forum accept peak prices as a properties value. In fact, most never did which is why they came to the blog. There will be a complete realignment of thinking toward value. Go ask someone in Riverside County what houses are worth there. Once priced cut in half, people realize they are not coming back soon. Right now, there is so much denial in Irvine, particularly at the high end, that some people do not even accept that their houses have dropped in value. Riverside county has already capitulated, and they accept that houses cost less than $200,000 again. Irvine is still in denial at the high end, in fear at the middle, and the low end is capitulating now.</blockquote>


Do you consider a 2bd Quail Hill/Turtle Ridge condo as "middle?" I have been waiting for the capitulation phase for 2.5 years now... and am still waiting...
 
[quote author="Superwrat" date=1242743191][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242721899][quote author="financeguy" date=1242717240][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242715550]You need to keep in mind when considering the price declines that REOs only determine the rate of decline, the price point to which properties will fall is determined by financing terms. People are now being required to really afford houses out of their real incomes. Prices will fall to these levels because that is all the more people can pay. Demand is measured in dollars not in desirability.</blockquote>


But I?m not talking about the people that can?t afford to buy a home in Irvine, as you say, that is not the relevant demand. I am referring to an increase in demand from those individuals that can afford to pay.



Most individuals in this blog seem to value homes in Irvine at the pre-bubble price and then assume that things will come down to an inflation adjusted pre-bubble price eventually. Right or wrong, my point is that what if the perceived value of Irvine for a large group of individuals has risen since the pre-bubble era and will continue to rise due to this MIRAGE phenomenon referred to earlier.



Therefore the individual who can afford to pay +600K (20% down or all cash) for SFR and might have bought in Turtle Rock in 2000 now pays for the same SFR in Westpark because they now view Westpark as being worth +600K.</blockquote>


I doubt too many of the posters on this blog or forum accept peak prices as a properties value. In fact, most never did which is why they came to the blog. There will be a complete realignment of thinking toward value. Go ask someone in Riverside County what houses are worth there. Once priced cut in half, people realize they are not coming back soon. Right now, there is so much denial in Irvine, particularly at the high end, that some people do not even accept that their houses have dropped in value. Riverside county has already capitulated, and they accept that houses cost less than $200,000 again. Irvine is still in denial at the high end, in fear at the middle, and the low end is capitulating now.</blockquote>


Do you consider a 2bd Quail Hill/Turtle Ridge condo as "middle?" I have been waiting for the capitulation phase for 2.5 years now... and am still waiting...</blockquote>
Have faith my friend...here's an example for...the 3bed/3bath condo I sold for $620k last Sept can now be had for $575k-$580k. Sure it may not be as fast as some people want, but patience will be rewarded. I'm giddy just thinking about getting 6-8 weeks of free rent when my lease come up in Oct along with a lower rent.
 
Here is what I have gained from this thread so far:



1. BK is a racist bastard, but we know this. Even if it is what he does for a living, you know... demographic research, and gets paid for it.



2. Corona is a sh*thole no matter how big the home is, or how many garages it has, it is still a sh*thole.



3. Some people need to search BK's comments to realize what a racist bastard he is NOT!



4. Some people have read BK's comments, and now have the knowledge to comment for him, and maybe even say it better since they do have a better understanding of the English language than he does. (no offense bk, I get what you say!)



5. No_Vas is a giant douche. There is no way of getting around this. He is like a black cloud that keeps following you everywhere you go. And, everyone wishes he would move back to the land of the dirt people, where he belongs, and no longer has internet access.



6. Asians are smarter than me, but I am smarter than those who live in the 909, therefore I am just as smart as Asians, and maybe smarter. Anyone ever check the last names of those going through foreclosure? Those LV bags will catch up to you.



7. Awgee is one step above a hobo living in Coto. Ross? Seriously? That is worse than Target man... at least TjMaxx has quality name brands that you can fake as cool in Coto. Please, go buy an aggressive sports car to fit your IHB personality. You can buy one cheap at the repo auction, and I will show you how.



8. IHO really needs a 5 car garage, and a bunch of FCB neighbors when he decides to buy. Give him some Kool-Aid too, I miss his old school drunk days.



9. Trojanman really needs a quality date, or at least he needs to get laid. This is a thread about housing bro, I wouldn't touch Lindsay with your... you know what.



10. The reality is Irvine is a bunch of stucco boxes, and it is not unique. It never will be. It will drive a premium because it is job center based, but there is nothing other than tot lots and repetition that is special about it. Oh the schools... who cares, be a good parent and you don't have to worry. Irvine will always have a premium over Anaheim, just like Beverly Hills will always have a premium over Inglewood. But, by no means is it, nor will it ever be as "special" as Beverly Hills.
 
OK, here's my opinion on the BH debate:



1) Irvine will be BH when the business district by the airport is Century City. I'm talking 50-60 story office towers, and the condo towers are like Wilshire blvd.



2) Irvine needs some sort of home grown wealth creation engine and the above won't happen until it does. BH has The Industry and all the surrounding and supporting industries, law, talent management etc that create the wealth that can support homes in the $5-10MM range, and the salaries that can support $1-$2MM small SFRs. Silicon Valley has tech which between salaries and stock valuation supports home values in Cupertino and Palo Alto. Maybe its nanotech who knows, but UCI needs to build some new industry that creates a wealth multiplier.



3) NPB/CDM will always pull wealth out of irvine. The beach is a real attraction, and lot sizes aren't that dissimilar and the infrastructure to get to the business centers from the beach is better than in LA.



4) Finally, there is a very large area of extremely high end houses in BH, and the only thing comparable in Irvine is Shady Canyon.



To sum up, until Costa Mesa/Santa Ana area is Century City, Irvine won't be BH, and even then, there's too much competition from NPB to make it the same level of aspiratonal address.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1242744962]Here is what I have gained from this thread so far:



1. BK is a racist bastard, but we know this. Even if it is what he does for a living, you know... demographic research, and gets paid for it.

</blockquote>


So can someone please enlighten me, rather than laughing at me.



Is BK what is referred to on many internet circles as a troll?



How does doing demographic research for a living make it acceptable for someone to make broad generalizations about a race, and generalizations which as I mentioned, I believe to be wrong. If he does research for a living, I would be curious to hear what percentage of Irvine Asians are in fact engineers, or which ones might be small business owners. I won't ask him to dig up their college transcripts to tell me which ones are smart or carry LV bags. ;) (BTW, those LV bags, are most likely fake... not real... you don't have to go to China or Mexico to get cheap fakes. Finding a knockoff bag retailer in SoCal is not difficult)





Delroy "AKA the noob"
 
[quote author="C Delroy Spuckler" date=1242766942][quote author="graphrix" date=1242744962]Here is what I have gained from this thread so far:



1. BK is a racist bastard, but we know this. Even if it is what he does for a living, you know... demographic research, and gets paid for it.

</blockquote>


So can someone please enlighten me, rather than laughing at me.



Is BK what is referred to on many internet circles as a troll?</blockquote>


No, but seriously, are you a troll? Nobody is laughing at you. See my post above. What you are discussing is covered territory in the links I made. If that is tl, dr the cliffs notes are:



BK really is Chinese and really does high dollar demographic consulting for homebuilders. He also really volenteers in homeless shelters in his spare time, with his wife and daughter. I am not making this up.
 
Irvine will never be Beverly Hills for a few reasons:



1. Even if some of the houses are big, the lots sizes are way too small.

2. Plus, the houses are mostly tract homes and not customs.

3. Movie stars want to live closer to the studios and not in the OC; Beverly Hills would not be Beverly Hills without movie stars.

4. The real Beverly Hills still exists.
 
[quote author="financeguy" date=1242735236][quote author="not a realtor" date=1242733770]If there is a more bland place than Irvine I don't know it. no part of inland oc especially south oc will ever be "beverly hills" because there is nothing unique about it. boring stucco boxes that all look alike and equally as important boring shopping centers that all look alike and are filled witth chain stores. you need some culture and variety to appreciate like a beverly hills</blockquote>


I remember when my parents first moved from LA to Irvine in the 80s their friends thought they were moving to the middle of nowhere. Now some of those friends have moved to Irvine, recognizing the great schools, safe community, and clean streets. Irvine has definitely grown in popularity of the past two decades and it continues to grow (Great Park, etc.). Likewise UCI has definitely gain more recognition academically over the years.



Like I said in my original post, I do not mean that Irvine is like Beverly Hills or will ever turn into Beverly Hills, but perhaps the Irvine of 2010 will be inherently more popular and valued than the Irvine of 2000, and therefore cannot be compared apples to apples in terms of what the values of homes should be.



Again, I?m not saying that I think this way, I just proposing the possibility.</blockquote>


Irvine = Torrance; It's a nice inland community with some good schools. The school thing is overrated though. Schools are driven much more by parents than anything else. The Asian culture values education and the high percentage of them in Irvine is what makes the schools "good". Irvine gets a rep for safety but the reality is you are no more safer in Irvine than any other middle class suburb.



The one thing that makes Irvine different is proximity to a lot of jobs. That keeps the housing prices a bit higher than you're average suburb.
 
I just want to drop a quick line to point out that BK said that Asians are mostly engineer smart. Not that most Asians are engineers.



That being said, I was frequently the only blond head in the room in Comp. Sci. classes at UCI. Just sayin'.



And no, Irvine will not be Beverly Hills. Not enough lots big enough for a pool and a tennis court there.
 
Are we done with this stupid thread yet? The answer is no. I'm sorry if that hurts some people's Irvine sensibilities, but sorry Irvine is not, never will be Beverly Hills. There is nothing remotely close to homes and neighborhoods in Beverly Hills in Irvine. Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, parts of Long Beach, maybe. This is just dumb.
 
Irvine will not become BH unless many more Persian Jews move here which is unlikely because there is no critical mass of Persian establishments nearby like in Westwood (aka Tehrangeles). The former mayor of BH was one of them and half the students at BHUSD are of Iranian origin. A few years ago, some Persian residents caused quite a commotion in BH by scraping vintage homes and replacing them with McMansions. Beginning in 2006, ballots in BH are printed in English and Farsi. An elderly long time resident of 90210 they said their ballots look like the menu at a shwarma joint.
 
[quote author="not a realtor" date=1242775885]



Irvine = Torrance </blockquote>


Irvine will never be Torrance unless it gets one of <a href="http://www.spearmintrhino.com/us_torrance.htm">these.</a>
 
[quote author="C Delroy Spuckler" date=1242740127][quote author="tmare" date=1242735964][quote author="Look4house" date=1242735777][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.</blockquote>


Once again, none of us are talking in absolutes or trying to stereotype a certain ethnic group. Bk uses overall trends and observation to his benefit and has been able to successful surmise the likes and dislikes of certain groups in order to design things that appeal to them. No one is saying that there aren't exceptions.</blockquote>


Uh... excuse me... explain to me how the quote "Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart" is anything BUT a naive racial stereotype. I would guess it is a very small percentage of Asians in southern california which are engineers. Have you ever been to Garden Grove, Westminster, Koreatown, etc... there are alot of very hard working Asians. There are many successful Asian business owners... or need I remind you about the whole Koreatown riots, and how the African Americans looted and burned down primarily Korean owned businesses? Those business owners might not be Donald Trump, but many of them came over here with very little, if anything, to their name... and they have successful family run businesses to show for it. I call that business smart and success... MUCH more so than some white guy who goes to Harvard, gets a degree and some high paying job because of who his daddy is, what school he want to, or the fact that he plays LaCrosse.



Even in Irvine, the engineering population is probably not a majority... quite simply there aren't enough engineering jobs in Orange County compared to the population. Yes, if you look at engineering schools, they might be dominated by Asians in some cases... but that doesn't mean all Asians are engineers, nor that they are "textbook smart". If there is anything textbook about that comment, its that it is textbook stereotyping and racist.



I also disagree with your comment "no on is saying there aren't exceptions". His comment was "Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart". That is very open and shut to me.



Delroy</blockquote>


One could argue, that people who take biased samples (ex.only take sample of group X that did Y, and concluded all members of group X do Y) are not particularly textbook or business smart ...



Taking samples of Asians only from Asians who bought at peak prices, and concluding therefore that all Asians do that, is ridiculous.

Might as well take a sample of Americans only from bars (no other places) and conclude all Americans are barflys - makes just about as much sense.
 
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