Collusion among homeowners in Tustin Ranch?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="skek" date=1237253670]Yeah, I agree trrenter, 5% is about 1-2% too low for super jumbos. I don't know anyone who is writing $2 million mortgages anywhere near 5%, not that I've been looking that hard. The real numbers (including prop tax, etc.) are going to be much, much higher. Not to mention that neither Obama nor the state of California plans on being very nice to these people. No, the high end is going to get absolutely crushed in the next 12-18 months.</blockquote>
Hopefully that means us little guys can pick up some really nice properties with those $417k conforming loans in 2-3 years.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1237242851]Never underestimate how much parents are willing to overspend to send their children to the highest scoring elementary and high schools.</blockquote>


The bubble has established that people will spend the maximum amount lenders will give them for their purchase. It's not an issue of parent's deciding they want the best for their children - it is the lender's deciding if they will allow the parent's to spend what they want.



The "parents" are the lenders in home purchasing transactions.
 
Plus the double digit unemployment. Add onto that the amount of people in the RE, Mortgage, construction etc that are unemployed but not counted into the statistic.



I went on Monster today looking for my 400k job an again it isn't listed. I will keep looking though.



And if people want to send their kids to a good school they can go the tried and true method of renting the cheapest apartment in the school district.
 
Here's the reality, as much as some of us want a quick huge drop in real estate prices in Irvine and other nice areas (NC, NB, TR, etc) we will have to be patient for these prices to come down. Home prices won't move around like stock market prices. The other thing to remember is that a primary residence is probably the last thing folks will give up before they throw in the towel so even though some of these homeowners have already been laid off it would be until next year that their property gets foreclosed and its the market as an REO. Good things will come to those who wait and have cash.
 
Someone just paid $650K to live in a 2000sf $hithole in old West Irvine on a teeny tiny lot around a mile away from these Emerson homes. These Emerson places won't be heading south of $1M any time soon if ever...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1237279196]Someone just paid $650K to live in a 2000sf $hithole in old West Irvine on a teeny tiny lot around a mile away from these Emerson homes. These Emerson places won't be heading south of $1M any time soon if ever...</blockquote>
Never say never! ;)
 
I don't know enough about the area, but I would venture to say that once we hit bottom and have an idea of the overall average percent drop from the peak in OC, it won't be too much different percentage wise in Santa Ana or in Newport Beach.
 
i was driving through tustin ranch looking at homes today, and then came across this thread.



just an interesting update, since everyone said the price of these homes would be driven down and there's no way they would sell.



well, actually, seems like their 'collusion' (if any) worked wonders. three of the homes sold within 3 months and above 92% list price, and nowhere NEAR the 1.25 million of that REO. only one that didn't sell was the one which was overpriced to begin with. hmm maybe i gotta do collusion thing if i ever decide to sell a house...



2357 Lassen Way - 3600 sq ft / $1,625,000 (sold 1,505,000)

2459 White River Way - 3,600 sq ft / $1,649,880 (same street a the REO) (sold 1,550,000)

10635 Sumter Way- 3,300 sq ft / $1,789,000 unsold.

10627 Sumter Way - 3,526 sq ft / $1,675,000 (sold (1,550,000)
 
Have you seen the SENTIMENT scale? It goes like this...



regular scale = sentiment -> wager -> sure thing -> "for real" reality



blog scale = sentiment -> "what i want" reality



If you had asked to put $1000 on the sentiment, how many would have wanted to take this to the wager stage?



[quote author="ABC123" date=1256267706]It's interesting how sentiment can change in a few short months.</blockquote>
 
I am surprised they sold so high compared to the REO. Not ever seeing those models, how comparable were they to the comp-killer?



I don't think sentiment has changed... it has just been drawn out. $400+/sft is still high and I still think they can come down based on original sale prices.



EDIT: Looks like the last one has been doing some shenanigans with its listings to you can't see the price history... it's at $1.599 now.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1256273442]I am surprised they sold so high compared to the REO. Not ever seeing those models, how comparable were they to the comp-killer?



I don't think sentiment has changed... it has just been drawn out. $400+/sft is still high and I still think they can come down based on original sale prices.



EDIT: Looks like the last one has been doing some shenanigans with its listings to you can't see the price history... it's at $1.599 now.</blockquote>


Maybe the REO was in poor physical condition. All of them seem to be selling in the $1.5 mil range, except the REO.
 
Also the low inventory, rumors of economic recovery and Fed programs is creating a semi-bubble.



In Irvine, there are a few houses that are even closing above non-REO comps.
 
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