Cheapest home in Turtle Ridge's Summit

[luckyguy]

I don't know why you feel insecure around me. You always follow my posts like a cyber stalker with your bookish fundamentals and trash talks to prove how smart you are. Would it make you feel better if I predict Laguna Beach houses will be 50% off next year?

It's not personal, you simply give bad advice, and have proven that you know very little about the high end market except what you "think" these homes should sell for.

You're trying to tell people that the $1m+ home range is highly competitive when it's not. You're also trying to say that those same homes have no more room to fall when they do. You tried to claim that a home priced at $1.2m next to Culver was priced right and would sell based on a pricing strategy, and 2 months later, it has not. I even accepted a $10,000 bet with you that the house wasn't priced right for the current market, and you ran away from the bet when you realized that you were wrong.

In fact in one thread you claim one thing:

29 Hidden Trl (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Hidden-Trl-92603/home/5927970) is bank owned and just went under contract. My agent told me there was a lot of traffic. The closing price of this property may be a barometer for QH/TR. If it closes below $1.5m, then the market is still weak.

The house closed for $1.475m, so according to your premise above, the TR market is weak. But here in this very same thread, you're claiming that the market is hot. Which is it? Your analysis of neighborhoods is scattershot, and you really never have a coherent point. It's all "guessing", with a little bit of "cheerleading" thrown in for good measure and you try to pass if off as advice to people here who ask for it.

I don't care about winning any arguments with you, but I do care that you're giving out bad information, so I'm going to call you on it.

Well, your advice is as good as mine. It's not "zero til nil" as you predicted that the house price doesn't bottom yet. While healthy discuss is good, what bothered me most is your trademark way in making an argument, IGNORE EVIDENCES NOT FAVORABLE TO YOU AND ATTACK THE OTHER PARTY. What about other properties I wrote in another post?
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Trumpet-Vine-92603/home/5901276  $1.865M, all cash
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/20-Cezanne-92603/home/5900781$1.771M
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Clouds-Pt-92603/home/5900983  $1.87M, all cash
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/51-Cezanne-92603/home/5900749$1.797M, all cash

29 Hidden Trl has its own problems:
1. No landscaping, cost $100k to upgrade
2. Almost no internal upgrade, even no windows covering, cost $100k-200k to upgrade
3. Small lot, only 5500SF.
If you have $1.5m for a house, you want it to be in move-in condition and don't want to hassle with the upgrades. Similar properties with decent upgrades are selling $1.7m+.

 

[IndieDev]

But you said IF it closed BELOW $1.5m, that the market was weak. The house closed at $1.475m.  :

The closing price of this property may be a barometer for QH/TR. If it closes below $1.5m, then the market is still weak.

Yet, here you are in this thread claiming that the market is HOT.

Those are two diametrically opposed viewpoints.

 

[iacrenter]

I'm a little nauseated by all the rah-rah Irvine prices only go up boosterism.

If you have a few year timeline, I am certain that prices (nominal) for these tract houses will go down.

I don't bet on waiting. "Going down" has been predicted by many people from year 2005. Condo and townhouse price do drop a lot. But quality SFRs hold value much better.  Turtle Ridge also corrected in the last few years. The correction is 10% -30% from the peak based on the tract and desirability of individual houses.

This sounds a little too NAR-ish for me. Yes it may hold value better but it does not mean prices will rise in the next year. If you have time to wait 12-24 months to purchase a $1M+ SFR in QH/Turtle Ridge, there will be more price declines ahead. How much of a decline will be the bigger question.

 

[NoSoup4U]

Would anyone have any insight as to how much shadow inventory is in the Summit?  Or is this top secret govt info?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Would anyone have any insight as to how much shadow inventory is in the Summit?  Or is this top secret govt info?

I can check my foreclosure radar and let you know.  Only SFRs, right?

 

[NoSoup4U]

I can check my foreclosure radar and let you know.  Only SFRs, right?

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I can check my foreclosure radar and let you know.  Only SFRs, right?

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic.

Not sarcastic at all.  Check your PM.

 

[NoSoup4U]

I can check my foreclosure radar and let you know.  Only SFRs, right?

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic.

Not sarcastic at all.  Check your PM.

Thanks a bunch!  Looks like a handy tool.