Bull run in housing over???
- Thread starter meccos12
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Very interesting. I think the sub 1.5m side of the market will still grind higher.
demand for resale homes is higher than its ever been in the past 18 years, while new homes sit for about 2x as long as resale homes. still very much a seller's market for resale while demand is more or less flat for new homes over the past 4 years.
GATE? I call it PRISON
A gate that's always open with no guard so any jo off the street can wander in :
I'm talking to you OH Groves aka Keystone Pacific/crap HOA, its been 3 years and the security has been a joke...it's as if they built the guard post as a fun prop. I wouldn't be surprised if we soon have squatters residing in the guard posts, lol!
Yes they are in the process now (many residents) of filing a law suit and getting keystone pacific kicked out. They are a terrible property management company and the ?security? they provide is laughable. Northpark?s HOA (crummack huseby) is a million times better!
Keystone is great.. at taking our money and putting it in their own pockets.
This is exactly what's going on. Who the heck knows where prices will go in the short term, way too many variables to consider (rates, resale inventory, job market, income growth, etc). In the longer term (7-10+ years), buyers who buy a home today in Irvine will not lose a penny and will be in the black...that I'm very confident of. Why? Because most of the new home construction will be completed (EW, OH, PS, and Great Park for the most part) so there will not be as much new home inventory as there is now so all those new home buyers will probably be forced into the resale market. Simple economics here, the same number of buyers chasing less available inventory equals higher prices.
The inflation is already here, and has been the last 5 years. Insurance, medical, education, housing, utilities, etc. etc.
Now comes the debt bust, and deflationary trend. If they reverse QE and the rate hikes, then I agree, but doesn't look to be the case.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/20/investing/chinese-investment-united-states-falls/index.html
I highly doubt their investment in RE will continue along, while investment in everything else plummets.
Very well said. The "nut job" will be the person who'll say that real estate prices will continue to grind higher. Heck even I thought we would be flat on prices this year with rates ticking up but I was wrong and we are already up 5%+ this year in prices (even more so in the sub $800k market). I know I sound like a broken record, but I'll keep saying this....watch inventory levels, they will be your tell where real estate prices are heading in the near terms.
Loco_local
Active member
what does this mean?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
NO BUENO
irvineband said:Check out today in the WSJ: Why home prices have nowhere to go but up.
Free link below:
https://www.htcinc.net/feed-items/why-home-prices-have-nowhere-to-go-but-up/
Very interesting. I think the sub 1.5m side of the market will still grind higher.
Loco_local said:what does this mean?
demand for resale homes is higher than its ever been in the past 18 years, while new homes sit for about 2x as long as resale homes. still very much a seller's market for resale while demand is more or less flat for new homes over the past 4 years.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
zubs said:
GATE? I call it PRISON
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
True, gate can be a deterrent. But what if your neighbor behind the gate is a Rif-Raf . A wanna be baller.
Now you are imprison with the rif-raf.
J/k
. A wanna be baller. Now you are imprison with the rif-raf.
J/k
Paris167
New member
zubs said:
A gate that's always open with no guard so any jo off the street can wander in :
I'm talking to you OH Groves aka Keystone Pacific/crap HOA, its been 3 years and the security has been a joke...it's as if they built the guard post as a fun prop. I wouldn't be surprised if we soon have squatters residing in the guard posts, lol!irvine buyer
Active member
Paris, have any residents of the Groves tried to band together and take legal action against the HOA and/or TIC? While I did not buy in Groves, I remember being told by salesperson that there should be a guard within a year of grand opening. I would guess that I'm not the only one that was told something similar. Seems like misrepresentation to me and I think there would be many who would not have bought had they known that there would be no guard after 3 years.
Paris167
New member
irvine buyer said:
Yes they are in the process now (many residents) of filing a law suit and getting keystone pacific kicked out. They are a terrible property management company and the ?security? they provide is laughable. Northpark?s HOA (crummack huseby) is a million times better!
paperboyNC
New member
Paris said:
Keystone is great.. at taking our money and putting it in their own pockets.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
No one like to pay for something and have it not properly served. HOA as whole has gained significant power and resources over the years. Every community now have them. And it is not right if HOA, is not responsive. The best way to keep them in check and responsible is:
1- Documents and take pictures of the issue. That?s easy to do everyone have a phone. Save and stored the community manager contact and organize a community reporting group and report anything that excessively out of line. I guarantee you if this manager get all these request and not doing anything, she will pack up voluntarily or forcibly.
2-Attend the HOA board meeting. It?s hard sometimes with schedule and everyone work, but if you upset, you need to get it resolve and be in their faces.
3- Organize a community meet and get to know your neighbors. Everyone that live and owned around you will have the same or similar view as you are and I can attest that they care as much as you are about their surrounding and want things done right.
All these HOA are there to serve and if they are not get them out.
1- Documents and take pictures of the issue. That?s easy to do everyone have a phone. Save and stored the community manager contact and organize a community reporting group and report anything that excessively out of line. I guarantee you if this manager get all these request and not doing anything, she will pack up voluntarily or forcibly.
2-Attend the HOA board meeting. It?s hard sometimes with schedule and everyone work, but if you upset, you need to get it resolve and be in their faces.
3- Organize a community meet and get to know your neighbors. Everyone that live and owned around you will have the same or similar view as you are and I can attest that they care as much as you are about their surrounding and want things done right.
All these HOA are there to serve and if they are not get them out.
if you're not happy with your hoa management company (and not just your manager) and you have actually attended hoa board meetings (most people do not) to voice your concern, then have your board of directors look into the current contract and determine what you can do to terminate. there are plenty of good management companies out there that would be happy to have your community's business.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Burn That Belly said:irvineband said:Check out today in the WSJ: Why home prices have nowhere to go but up.
Free link below:
https://www.htcinc.net/feed-items/why-home-prices-have-nowhere-to-go-but-up/
Low supply is keeping sales down despite higher rates and builders are in no rush to boost production
This is exactly what's going on. Who the heck knows where prices will go in the short term, way too many variables to consider (rates, resale inventory, job market, income growth, etc). In the longer term (7-10+ years), buyers who buy a home today in Irvine will not lose a penny and will be in the black...that I'm very confident of. Why? Because most of the new home construction will be completed (EW, OH, PS, and Great Park for the most part) so there will not be as much new home inventory as there is now so all those new home buyers will probably be forced into the resale market. Simple economics here, the same number of buyers chasing less available inventory equals higher prices.
shahshah said:
The inflation is already here, and has been the last 5 years. Insurance, medical, education, housing, utilities, etc. etc.
Now comes the debt bust, and deflationary trend. If they reverse QE and the rate hikes, then I agree, but doesn't look to be the case.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/20/investing/chinese-investment-united-states-falls/index.html
I highly doubt their investment in RE will continue along, while investment in everything else plummets.
There is no housing crash coming in Irvine. And if you are waiting for a crash, you will eventually regret not buying a home when you should have. If things are a bit soft , negotiate harder, or cast a wider net, but don't stay out of the game.
I have said this before several times on this forum (perhaps in other threads) -- inflation is a global phenomenon not local. the world is awash in excess capacity (for nearly everything). employment is low , but are wages really going up much ? not exactly. the big companies are getting bigger and the employee voluntary "quit rate" which I s the real indicator of wage pressures is not really that high except for a few sectors.
Fed is moving a lot faster in terms of raising rates than any other central bank . Why ? because they can afford to. US is performing better than nearly every other developed country out there. But what does that lead to ? Stronger dollar. What does stronger dollar lead to ? You guessed right --> Lower inflation
Now one could say trade war can throw a wrench in all this and in theory this may seem right -- after all if global trade decreases then dollar going up shouldn't really cause a deflation, right. ? But hang on -- what happens to S&P500 that derives nearly half its revenue globally ? Yup, equities take a big hit , P/E multiples come down --- and lo and behold , interest rates go down as investors flee to safety
One thing is clear --- equity market is NOT pricing in impact of trade wars. The day it starts to , we are in for a decent size 5-10% correction in the stock market . Now that doesn't necessarily translate to similar correction in housing , just means home sales volumes might slow down or buyers might get the upper hand for a change.
So next time you hear a supposed expert blathering on CNN / CNBC , know this -- they are throwing out sound bytes and not really making an effort to connect the dots.
I have said this before several times on this forum (perhaps in other threads) -- inflation is a global phenomenon not local. the world is awash in excess capacity (for nearly everything). employment is low , but are wages really going up much ? not exactly. the big companies are getting bigger and the employee voluntary "quit rate" which I s the real indicator of wage pressures is not really that high except for a few sectors.
Fed is moving a lot faster in terms of raising rates than any other central bank . Why ? because they can afford to. US is performing better than nearly every other developed country out there. But what does that lead to ? Stronger dollar. What does stronger dollar lead to ? You guessed right --> Lower inflation
Now one could say trade war can throw a wrench in all this and in theory this may seem right -- after all if global trade decreases then dollar going up shouldn't really cause a deflation, right. ? But hang on -- what happens to S&P500 that derives nearly half its revenue globally ? Yup, equities take a big hit , P/E multiples come down --- and lo and behold , interest rates go down as investors flee to safety
One thing is clear --- equity market is NOT pricing in impact of trade wars. The day it starts to , we are in for a decent size 5-10% correction in the stock market . Now that doesn't necessarily translate to similar correction in housing , just means home sales volumes might slow down or buyers might get the upper hand for a change.
So next time you hear a supposed expert blathering on CNN / CNBC , know this -- they are throwing out sound bytes and not really making an effort to connect the dots.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
Very well said. The "nut job" will be the person who'll say that real estate prices will continue to grind higher. Heck even I thought we would be flat on prices this year with rates ticking up but I was wrong and we are already up 5%+ this year in prices (even more so in the sub $800k market). I know I sound like a broken record, but I'll keep saying this....watch inventory levels, they will be your tell where real estate prices are heading in the near terms.