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OpenSky said:
nosuchreality said:
Unless the demand is really for 4 homes at that price point $$$$.  Then when the new home comes online at $$$$$, then the old home still sells at $$$$?.

Because the old home now has upside comps showing $$$$$.

Comps cross villages? If that were true, Vista Filare should be 10-20% higher in value based on Northwood and Northpark. And "Strauss on your house" , who farms that area, would be the richest Realtor in Irvine.

Yes they do, when the tiny starter hardcore motorcourt home in OH starts at high $800s and it's pushing a $1M by the time you move in, the oversized, motorcourt lite home looks better and becomes $1.1M then $1.2M then $1.3M
 
OpenSky said:
West Irvine is 12-15% lower psf than Northpark.

Humor me with some Redfin sold links.

Or do you mean Northpark I, which is 10 year older homes and a much denser neighborhood?  Because west Irvine, Woodbridge, University, is looking higher, not lower.  Even the horrible stuff in Paseo Westpark is close to par with about a 5% ding, which given the horrible 20 year old construction is a pittance.


 
nosuchreality said:
OpenSky said:
West Irvine is 12-15% lower psf than Northpark.

Humor me with some Redfin sold links.

Or do you mean Northpark I, which is 10 year older homes and a much denser neighborhood?  Because west Irvine, Woodbridge, University, is looking higher, not lower.  Even the horrible stuff in Paseo Westpark is close to par with about a 5% ding, which given the horrible 20 year old construction is a pittance.

If you do your own search on sold listings on Redfin in the past 6 months, Northpark solds have often sold for over $400/sf vs the typical $285-$385/sf for detached products in West Irvine.  Not sure what you mean by much denser either as NP has actual grass separator between sidewalk and street, and the lot in the listing that this thread references is over 6,500 sf.  The only benefit to Westpark is that some of it feeds to Uni which some people might feel is a benefit like the previous poster who trashes Beckman (but doesn't realize that Beckman is typically ranked higher than the other 2 IUSD high schools other than Northwood and Uni). 
 
Smashed said:
nosuchreality said:
OpenSky said:
West Irvine is 12-15% lower psf than Northpark.

Humor me with some Redfin sold links.

Or do you mean Northpark I, which is 10 year older homes and a much denser neighborhood?  Because west Irvine, Woodbridge, University, is looking higher, not lower.  Even the horrible stuff in Paseo Westpark is close to par with about a 5% ding, which given the horrible 20 year old construction is a pittance.

If you do your own search on sold listings on Redfin in the past 6 months, Northpark solds have often sold for over $400/sf vs the typical $285-$385/sf for detached products in West Irvine.  Not sure what you mean by much denser either as NP has actual grass separator between sidewalk and street, and the lot in the listing that this thread references is over 6,500 sf.  The only benefit to Westpark is that some of it feeds to Uni which some people might feel is a benefit like the previous poster who trashes Beckman (but doesn't realize that Beckman is typically ranked higher than the other 2 IUSD high schools other than Northwood and Uni). 

You mean that silver wedged between Jamboree and the 261, that's Northpark I.  Go drive in, it's much denser.  Non-gated, older.  The only reason they're selling for $350 is cuz Northpark proper is selling for $400.
 
nosuchreality said:
Smashed said:
nosuchreality said:
OpenSky said:
West Irvine is 12-15% lower psf than Northpark.

Humor me with some Redfin sold links.

Or do you mean Northpark I, which is 10 year older homes and a much denser neighborhood?  Because west Irvine, Woodbridge, University, is looking higher, not lower.  Even the horrible stuff in Paseo Westpark is close to par with about a 5% ding, which given the horrible 20 year old construction is a pittance.

If you do your own search on sold listings on Redfin in the past 6 months, Northpark solds have often sold for over $400/sf vs the typical $285-$385/sf for detached products in West Irvine.  Not sure what you mean by much denser either as NP has actual grass separator between sidewalk and street, and the lot in the listing that this thread references is over 6,500 sf.  The only benefit to Westpark is that some of it feeds to Uni which some people might feel is a benefit like the previous poster who trashes Beckman (but doesn't realize that Beckman is typically ranked higher than the other 2 IUSD high schools other than Northwood and Uni). 

You mean that silver wedged between Jamboree and the 261, that's Northpark I.  Go drive in, it's much denser.  Non-gated, older.  The only reason they're selling for $350 is cuz Northpark proper is selling for $400.

Confused. Are you guys talking about the same location? I never heard of "Northpark I." Nosuchreality's description sounds like West Irvine.
 
I find it interesting that my home in West Irvine recently got appraised for $400/sf but then again I have a larger lot and a pool/spa.  >:D
 
Yea, that sliver is West Irvine, originally it was referred to as North Park I, but I think they realized they pooched it and changed the name and cleaned up the other Northpark name.  It's very distinctly different style complexes and different amenities. 

He's mistaking a lower price for lack of halo effect and failing to recognize that the price isn't even lower because of the halo effect.
 
Although I comp within 'hoods, you will find that appraisers may comp outside of them if they are close enough. And that's going to hit the bottom line more than whether or not we think some 'hood is Northpark I or Northpark V.

I remember when we were doing a refi on our house and there weren't many for sale in our hood so they took homes that were in nearby hoods but older homes and not quite the same bed/bath count. It brought the appraisal down and we actually had to request a re-appraisal.

So there is some influence and can go either way... QH homes should be getting some spillover from the hot Altura prices (detached condos were trading in QH for about mid $700k a year or two ago, they are now > $850k).
 
you can be snarky if you want, however you might want to open your eyes before you lose money.

You're mistaking the lower median $/sf price of a different product mix and thinking that means they're selling for less in West Irvine than Northpark.  They're not.  Over-all sales are very low, but when you comp like to like, you don't see a price disparity, you just see noise fluctuations.

A 3/2.5 in Northpark for $346/sf.  Two sisters units sold for $364/sf and $373/sf

A 3/2.5 in West Irvine for $387/sf.   It's sister unit went more cheaply at $357/sf 

Not much price premium there, IOW none, given they're bigger and more nicely appointed IMHO.


Similarly, here's a roughly 1600sf detached 3/2.5 condo

Northpark $395/sf

West Irvine $391/sf

If you move over to true SFRs on small lots, well, still a pretty small pool.  Again looking at 3 bedrooms between 1750-2250 sf, on smaller lots,

West Irvine has 2 sales, $388/sf and $385/sf

Northpark has three, two of which are on the very top end of that range and have the optional bonus room/4th bedroom.  Prices are $344/sf which is the closet comp, IMHO.  And $403/sf and $438/sf Obvious quality and add-on disparity self-evident along with basically a fourth bedroom.

Northpark square had one sale, $367/sf and that's for a one story on a 4800sf lot.

As you move up to 4 bedrooms, you need to control for lot size and house size.  Northpark you see numbers like $356/sf, $372/sf, $381/sf, $415/sf, $420/sf, $421/sf and an odd $458/sf (highly upgraded it is)

West Irvine, $356sf (obviously gut job needed), $368/sf, $378/sf, $383/sf, $416/sf...

enough said.
 
nosuchreality said:
you can be snarky if you want, however you might want to open your eyes before you lose money.

You're mistaking the lower median $/sf price of a different product mix and thinking that means they're selling for less in West Irvine than Northpark.  They're not.  Over-all sales are very low, but when you comp like to like, you don't see a price disparity, you just see noise fluctuations.

A 3/2.5 in Northpark for $346/sf.  Two sisters units sold for $364/sf and $373/sf

A 3/2.5 in West Irvine for $387/sf.   It's sister unit went more cheaply at $357/sf 

Not much price premium there, IOW none, given they're bigger and more nicely appointed IMHO.


Similarly, here's a roughly 1600sf detached 3/2.5 condo

Northpark $395/sf 

This listing you reference is in Northpark Square.  Here are 2 examples within Northpark: Meadow Valley $411/sf and Arcata $418/sf

West Irvine $391/sf

If you move over to true SFRs on small lots, well, still a pretty small pool.  Again looking at 3 bedrooms between 1750-2250 sf, on smaller lots,

West Irvine has 2 sales, $388/sf and $385/sf

Northpark has three, two of which are on the very top end of that range and have the optional bonus room/4th bedroom.  Prices are $344/sf which is the closet comp, IMHO.  And $403/sf and $438/sf Obvious quality and add-on disparity self-evident along with basically a fourth bedroom.

Northpark square had one sale, $367/sf and that's for a one story on a 4800sf lot.

As you move up to 4 bedrooms, you need to control for lot size and house size.  Northpark you see numbers like $356/sf, $372/sf, $381/sf, $415/sf, $420/sf, $421/sf and an odd $458/sf (highly upgraded it is)

West Irvine, $356sf (obviously gut job needed), $368/sf, $378/sf, $383/sf, $416/sf...

enough said.

Your first example "closest comp" on Atwater for the 3 bedrooms 1750-2250sf on smaller lots in Northpark at $344/sf is an attached product.  So I disagree that this is a valid comp.  Detached products in Northpark are in the $400+/sf range for closed sales. 

If you bump the square footage to look at 2,000 to 2,500sf 4 bedrooms you get:

Northpark: $458, $420, $414, $412, $408, $405
West Irvine: $389, $382, $378, $370, $368, $356

 
iacrenter said:
Looks like 12 Poway @ NP fell out of escrow and is now back on the market at $1.19M. Open House today and Sunday.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Poway-92602/home/5813332

Irvineboy,

If you are still interested in this property you can try again. Only problem is the listing agent is still Monica. Be sure to get your own buyers agent this time.

$90k more now than when it was listed in Nov.  The 2014 10% predicted downturn by OpenSky is not looking good so far..
 
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