Bear Stearns

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
So much for anyone but us here giving a rip about the Bear bailout... 420 pt rise on the Dow today. Economy sucks so bad the Fed drops by .75 and investors buy up everything in sight. Sickening.
 
<p>If the rate cut is inflationary ... why is gold going down? Is it just people selling their gold to go buy stocks today?</p>

<p>http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html</p>
 
I disagree, I think this market has triple tested the 11,700 dow. It will hold. Markets traditionally rally during recessions. 1990-1996, the last real estate collapse, the last financial crisis (S&L) the Dow went from 2250 to 6550 by 2006.
 
<p>Yeah, I am starting to see that pattern also morekaos. Dow has a 600 pt rally from midday yesterday on increased volume. With a plain ole bear rally, I'd expect the conviction of buyers not to be there and volume to be lower... </p>

<p>I don't see IRs strong downtrend. I see range trading on the Dow between 11700-12800 and base forming. There is a whole lot of support just below 12K and buyers have been resilient there...</p>
 
If you guys want to talk technicals, there was a recent double-top in the DOW corresponding to the top of the most recent bear rally. Either support or resistance is going to have to give. Given current downward trend in earnings and the fact we are just now entering a recession, I think we will get one more good leg down before we find a bottom.
 
I thought for sure the Bear debacle would blow through the downside support. Will be curious to see what happens if we bump up against 12600-12800 again...
 
My reading of the technicals show signs of weakness. To me, it looks like the resistance levels will not be tested like the support levels. Seeing as how the support levels have been broken way more than the resistance levels in the last three months.
 
<p>I can't remember, is a high VIX normally a bearish or bullish technical signal?</p>

<p>I'm running out the office door now and too lazy to look it up...</p>
 
The VIX has a number of interpretations. As a sentiment indicator, a high VIX reading demonstrates investor fear, and a low VIX reading demonstrates investor confidence. Of course, sentiment indicators are often interpreted as inverse of future market action -- the herd is always wrong. Therefore, a high VIX reading is sign of an impending bullish reversal and a low VIX reading is sign of a bearish reversal. The low VIX reading called the downturns in the bear market from 2001-2003, but it completely whiffed on the rally of spring/summer 2003. No indicator is perfect.
 
LM - i was thinking of doing the same, ive lost 14% of my 401K since 1/1/08, although if i move i guess ill miss my chance to make it back up.
 
<p>Experience has taught us to buy low and sell high. You already missed all the highs. Now is the time to buy because things are cheap. Maybe the Market goes down some more. The Market on average gives us 10.34%. If you miss the best 20 days, that goes down to 6%. All those in cash for the last two weeks missed the 400 point day last week. That could have been 1 of 20 days.</p>

<p> </p>
 
I'm -8.78% this year before today's rally. I'd rather play it safe for the next 6 months until I get a better feel of the market. My 401k is managed through Principal. <strong><u>Every single fund</u> </strong>that I can invest in is in the red so far this year. All except short term money market accounts.
 
<p>That means everything is on sale. </p>

<p>You want to be in the market especially in an election year.</p>

<p>What does it matter where the Market is today if it's in your 401K and it will be invested for over ten years. Historically, there's a less than a 1% chance of ever losing money over a ten-year time frame and zero percent over 15 years. If you need the money within ten years - that's a different story. </p>
 
Another point . . . I happen to be sitting here watching Headline News and they stated two huge facts as to why we should still be in the Market. First is the investment firm UBS rose 14% today based on people feeling it had reached its lowest share price and investors buying back in. And the second point is the Market rose 420 points today - the fourth largest point gain ever. Being in the Market today prevented invested investors from missing one of the top 20 days.
 
I have made a long and profitable carear by being contrarian. When 75% of the public says we are in a recession and the market is not the place to be I hold my nose and pull the trigger. in 30 years of trading it has never failed that the public are always wrong.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top