Avenue One 98% sold out?

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[quote author="saloan" date=1212478957]thanks everyone, I was looking in to buying a place at avenue one and it came to 350 a sq ft but it seems like I have not got any positive feedback at all. I thought maybe they had hit rock bottom . The 725sq ft unit is 250k last closed comp from may, and the 1037 sq ft unit is 350k last closed comp from May. This didn't seem that high to me and I don't think its going up AT ALL, but it sorta sounded like the right price was near. If they come down anymore the mortage and rent will be the same so it will be a great deal to buy. I just didn't see it getting any less then 350k a sq ft in west irvine close to newport right where the tx goes down to 1.01%. I know you have NO chance of renting one of these places for less then at a $900 negative because there are way to many rentals. at 100sq ft they would be they would going for 110k for a two bedroom and you could rent them at a positive. Could that happend ? umm I don't think so. People have money in this area. I know loans are hard to get and you need alot of cash but there is the FHA loan program that covers you at 100% and no money down. In addition as soon as rent and mortage is = Investors will buy all of these up. I could believe that there would be a break even time. If you could ever buy at 100sq belive that the whole UK would be over here and the states would no longer beowned by people American dollars. At worst these will be 200k for a one bedroom and 300k for a 2 bedroom thats what I think. But in five years that area could be booming. It could turn into a lil urban city who knows is the problem. I willet you guys know if I roll the dice, I feel some days we are at an all time low and its a agood time to buy and other days I knows that this down fall is going to keep going down hill for another year.

Cheers,

s</blockquote>


I think you overestimate the size of this bust. At the bottom, there will be so many properties - there won't be enough money to go around. They'll sit for years. It's been that way the last 3 busts going back to 1970 (I wasn't alive before that, so it never happpened).



I"ll bet you a hundred dollars american the bottom for this place is under $150 a foot. Maybe less. You've got $900 in fees here a month.
 
[quote author="saloan" date=1212484441]lol ok I am over it. Just the thought of buying here and all the work I have had to do has me stressed out.I need some advil homeys!! If rent and mortgage become = price I am in why not.I will not be putting money in the hole and I will own in 30 years. If I can rent at an equal to my mortgage sounds like a plan. The fee's are only 315 a month not 900. Until the goo day comes I guess I am going to sit back and see what goes down and what goes up. Nothing going up so I guess I will see how far down it goes maybe one day it will meet my 2000 a month. There is no money to go around its true and just getting worse. However the people who still have money at the bottom will be able to buy and for sure if its get back to 2000 prices there will bound to be another bomb. Risky business when to get in and when to get out. Stressful. I better stop looking into this and get back to my job that pays me while that still last. Thanks people Look like I am going to chill till I can get a 1 bedroom for 200k. I will keep you guys posted on the decline at ave one or if it gets steady at 350 a sq ft.

Tah Tah

I am headed out to my pool at my apartment that rent at</blockquote>


and hopefully that job doesn't require writing skills.....or a high school degree
 
[quote author="jcaraway" date=1212490548][quote author="saloan" date=1212484441]lol ok I am over it. Just the thought of buying here and all the work I have had to do has me stressed out.I need some advil homeys!! If rent and mortgage become = price I am in why not.I will not be putting money in the hole and I will own in 30 years. If I can rent at an equal to my mortgage sounds like a plan. The fee's are only 315 a month not 900. Until the goo day comes I guess I am going to sit back and see what goes down and what goes up. Nothing going up so I guess I will see how far down it goes maybe one day it will meet my 2000 a month. There is no money to go around its true and just getting worse. However the people who still have money at the bottom will be able to buy and for sure if its get back to 2000 prices there will bound to be another bomb. Risky business when to get in and when to get out. Stressful. I better stop looking into this and get back to my job that pays me while that still last. Thanks people Look like I am going to chill till I can get a 1 bedroom for 200k. I will keep you guys posted on the decline at ave one or if it gets steady at 350 a sq ft.

Tah Tah

I am headed out to my pool at my apartment that rent at</blockquote>


and hopefully that job doesn't require writing skills.....or a high school degree</blockquote>


These are the same foreigners who, with the same level of thinking, ran the price of RE up over the past 10 years. They can't write well but are smart enough to know they can take a risk and it could pay off bigtime and if they lose, the American taxpayer will bail them out. Pretty sad.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1212470680]either run the numbers (include the tax break only if you figure out how itemizing will work v. the standard deduction), or just trust us when we say "wait".



personally, i predict that those places will sell for <strong>$100/sqft at the low point</strong>.</blockquote>
LOL
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1212482493]



I"ll bet you a hundred dollars american the bottom for this place is under $150 a foot. Maybe less. You've got $900 in fees here a month.</blockquote>


I'll take that bet. IAC will buy the place land turn it into apartments before it lets peopel buy a place for half the price of an apt.
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1216014810][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1212482493]



I"ll bet you a hundred dollars american the bottom for this place is under $150 a foot. Maybe less. You've got $900 in fees here a month.</blockquote>


I'll take that bet. IAC will buy the place land turn it into apartments before it lets peopel buy a place for half the price of an apt.</blockquote>
Thank you, finally some sanity. I'm bearish on the housing market as much as the next guy, but I'm also realistic of the max downside and nothing under $200/sf for these units are possible. Think about it, if these units sold for less than $150/sf then they would be considerably cheaper to live in then a similar Villa Siena apartment.
 
Bet accepted. Good luck.



<blockquote>Think about it, if these units sold for less than $150/sf then they would be considerably cheaper to live in then a similar Villa Siena apartment.</blockquote>


Your error in that statement is you assume there will be no colapse in rents.



Just for kicks, figure out what $2650/mo less $900 in dues per month is worth in a rental equivlent.



<a href="http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/">http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/</a>



I'm a big man, if I'm wrong, I'll own up to it. I know, I'm way, way out there - but I don't think you have any idea how really scary bad this is going to get.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1216031800]This just in......



The Moon is almost fully sold out of available lots. You better hurry up and call to secure your very own Moon acre today!</blockquote>


ha ha...



I don't WANT to think we'll see 150 per sq ft., but I just remember back to the stagflation years and how brutal interest rates were.



Even borrowing just a little bit of money was ALOT of monthly payment. That and you needed sparkling credit as well as quite alot of liquidity. All these things are quite rare and are only going to be more rare as more loans fall. (I'm not even going to mention how hard it will be to get a loan, much less qualify for one...)



Only time will tell, but I can say I can see some rents slipping in certain areas, while other rents are going up (very, very slowly though).



Anyway its an interesting thing to follow, hopefully I will have paid down some of the loans in case I have to sell for a lower price. Anyways goodluck

-bix
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1216027265]Bet accepted. Good luck.



<blockquote>Think about it, if these units sold for less than $150/sf then they would be considerably cheaper to live in then a similar Villa Siena apartment.</blockquote>


Your error in that statement is you assume there will be no colapse in rents.



Just for kicks, figure out what $2650/mo less $900 in dues per month is worth in a rental equivlent.



<a href="http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/">http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/</a>



I'm a big man, if I'm wrong, I'll own up to it. I know, I'm way, way out there - but I don't think you have any idea how really scary bad this is going to get.</blockquote>


Well, lets see. a 900 sq ft. place at 149 bucks each way is 134k. Thats about an 800 a month mortgage without a big downpayment. I don't remember what the HO fees are but assuming its <em>another</em> 700 a month your still looking at a lot cheaper then you can rent an upgraded two bedroom apt in Irvine for.
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1216050395]Well, lets see. a 900 sq ft. place at 149 bucks each way is 134k. Thats about an 800 a month mortgage without a big downpayment. I don't remember what the HO fees are but assuming its <em>another</em> 700 a month your still looking at a lot cheaper then you can rent an upgraded two bedroom apt in Irvine for.</blockquote>


Mortgage payment is a moot point if you cannot qualify for the loan. For probably most of my life the downpayment has been the biggest discriminator in homeownership, and for most of my life interest rates were in the double digits. $150/sq ft? Yes, we shall see. It would take some bad times to get us there for sure, but things can go south in a real hurry when people are scared. I shall waffle over the middle ground and say I won't take that bet, but it wouldn't surprise me either.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1216016082][quote author="25w100k+" date=1216014810][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1212482493]



I"ll bet you a hundred dollars american the bottom for this place is under $150 a foot. Maybe less. You've got $900 in fees here a month.</blockquote>


I'll take that bet. IAC will buy the place land turn it into apartments before it lets peopel buy a place for half the price of an apt.</blockquote>
Thank you, finally some sanity. I'm bearish on the housing market as much as the next guy, but I'm also realistic of the max downside and nothing under $200/sf for these units are possible. Think about it, if these units sold for less than $150/sf then they would be considerably cheaper to live in then a similar Villa Siena apartment.</blockquote>


You have absolutely no clue how many foreclosures there are in this complex... do you? Bloodbath is not the correct term for this place, more like a Mongolian horde slaughtering a small village times Japanese Kamikaze dive bombers of all of WII. Whatever the builder is selling at, they are going back to the bank for $100k plus less. This is the rejects of flipper central, someone mainlined the Kool-Aid into these fools.



IAC/TIC doesn't own this land, so they wouldn't touch this project unless it got to $150 a sqft., and they would still have to think about it.
 
http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/Floorplan/Two-Bedroom/



We'll use plan 27, which is 997 sf and the cheapest at $1980 a month.



So, assuming $700 a month in mello roos/dues/fees, that leaves $1280.



Here comes the all mighty HP 17B again:



n = 360

% = 7%

Pmnt = $1280

FV = 0



<strong>PV=$192,393.69 which works out to 192.97 a foot.</strong>



So, you win (!) provided that interest rates don't creep up (they will) easy credit that we have now stays easy (it won't) and that Irvine rents remain resistant to the laws of physics and economics (they won't). Did we figure out a surcharge factor for the 'assessments' from the HOA since they are forced to load anyone who isn't in default with the bill for the HOA?



I wrote somewhere else that the only way this (and all other multi story residential projects) work in SoCal is via the broom of a bankrupcy. Otherwise, it is impossible to get the cost structure in line with market clearing prices - save a bubble OR a small stash of high grade narcotics...................



I sincerely hope I lose this bet. But anyone who knows me understands I don't book action without a huge edge, and I'm certain I have one here. We'll see.
 
Vasily,

The more and more I come back to this, the more I realize, its going to be pretty close. Do you realize that TIC paid OFF alot of their debts. I can only guess as to all the reasons. But IMHO, they see low prices coming in and it would probably be better to pay up front and keep a constant (if less) cashflow. Again, JMHO.



I keep an eye on these apartments because they are the only ones in the area that allow younger "kids" in them. Watermarke doesn't allow people under 25 (renters at least), and it just makes me look at avenue one....

Again, time will tell.



-bix
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1216027265]Bet accepted. Good luck.



<blockquote>Think about it, if these units sold for less than $150/sf then they would be considerably cheaper to live in then a similar Villa Siena apartment.</blockquote>


Your error in that statement is you assume there will be no colapse in rents.



Just for kicks, figure out what $2650/mo less $900 in dues per month is worth in a rental equivlent.



<a href="http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/">http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Villa-Siena/Prices-And-Floorplans/</a>



I'm a big man, if I'm wrong, I'll own up to it. I know, I'm way, way out there - but I don't think you have any idea how really scary bad this is going to get.</blockquote>
I'll take that bet and you can pay me in poker chips from either Commerce, HG, or O11. haha The HOA dues on Ave One range between $300 to $500 per month right now, of course they could be going up. I'll be the first one to say that there is a lot of downside left in the units (considering that they are still priced in the high $300/sf range). I see bottom somewhere in the $200/sf range. Honestly, if they do fall down to $150/sf...that's gonna be very, very bad for everyone of us because everything else will have to decline another 50% from current levels.
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1216052230][quote author="25w100k+" date=1216050395]Well, lets see. a 900 sq ft. place at 149 bucks each way is 134k. Thats about an 800 a month mortgage without a big downpayment. I don't remember what the HO fees are but assuming its <em>another</em> 700 a month your still looking at a lot cheaper then you can rent an upgraded two bedroom apt in Irvine for.</blockquote>


Mortgage payment is a moot point if you cannot qualify for the loan. For probably most of my life the downpayment has been the biggest discriminator in homeownership, and for most of my life interest rates were in the double digits. $150/sq ft? Yes, we shall see. It would take some bad times to get us there for sure, but things can go south in a real hurry when people are scared. I shall waffle over the middle ground and say I won't take that bet, but it wouldn't surprise me either.</blockquote>
Honestly, if Fannie and Freddie don't get nationalized by the Federal gov't then the mortgage of choice will be an FHA loan. Don't think that politicians won't step in to help Joe Public get a loan, one way or another.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1216054849][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1216016082][quote author="25w100k+" date=1216014810][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1212482493]



I"ll bet you a hundred dollars american the bottom for this place is under $150 a foot. Maybe less. You've got $900 in fees here a month.</blockquote>


I'll take that bet. IAC will buy the place land turn it into apartments before it lets peopel buy a place for half the price of an apt.</blockquote>
Thank you, finally some sanity. I'm bearish on the housing market as much as the next guy, but I'm also realistic of the max downside and nothing under $200/sf for these units are possible. Think about it, if these units sold for less than $150/sf then they would be considerably cheaper to live in then a similar Villa Siena apartment.</blockquote>


You have absolutely no clue how many foreclosures there are in this complex... do you? Bloodbath is not the correct term for this place, more like a Mongolian horde slaughtering a small village times Japanese Kamikaze dive bombers of all of WII. Whatever the builder is selling at, they are going back to the bank for $100k plus less. This is the rejects of flipper central, someone mainlined the Kool-Aid into these fools.



IAC/TIC doesn't own this land, so they wouldn't touch this project unless it got to $150 a sqft., and they would still have to think about it.</blockquote>
Oh believe me, I do know how many units are in trouble there from all the short sales and REO for sale on MLS. The Kool-Aid was running to the extreme with the buyers of those units considering that they paid $400-$500/sf. Again, it will take a whole lot to get down to the $150/sf range there and I don't think any of us want to get there because there will be pain felt across the board. I just don't see mortgage rates skyrocketing to double digits let alone mortgage loans disappearing...remember something, greed is a powerful driver not only for individuals but also corporations (in this case lenders).
 
Well, I win either way. I don't own anything so I'm either going to make 100 bucks from Vas, or I'm going to owe Vas a 100 bucks and buy a nice place for hundreds of thousands of dollars less then I was even hoping to get one for. ;-)
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1216085294]Well, I win either way. I don't own anything so I'm either going to make 100 bucks from Vas, or I'm going to owe Vas a 100 bucks and buy a nice place for hundreds of thousands of dollars less then I was even hoping to get one for. ;-)</blockquote>
And I'll be right behind you picking up another rental property. Don't forget to use me as your realtor. =op
 
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