Are we on target with Irvine Renter's forecast?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227621130]

So far, the default rate on reworked loans is 40%. And that is only so far.</blockquote>
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227621130]

I'm not suggesting that most won't end up as defaults eventually. Just suggesting that the mods will extend the pain/pleasure of price declines. Without all the handouts, we are all buying below rental parity in 2010, heck maybe 2009. Not going happen that quickly now...</blockquote>




over on bubbleinfo, JtR speculates that the vast majority of people renegotiating are lining up for the next 12 months free rent, after having stopped paying last winter.



Not bad, 2 years free rent in your mcmansion, then you have to find an apartment to live in, having saved $48k in rent.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227654326]

When Awgee made a bold statement that he thinks OC real estate prices can decline down to 1998 - 2000 levels, I thought that he was a little nutty, but I am now starting to agree with what Awgee is saying.</blockquote>


I am sure you mean well, but I do not remember saying this, and it does not sound to me like something I would say. I avoid making housing price predictions that involve either dollar amounts or years.



I think what I have said is that I think home prices will decline by 78% in real vs. nominal dollars.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227674337][quote author="PANDA" date=1227654326]

When Awgee made a bold statement that he thinks OC real estate prices can decline down to 1998 - 2000 levels, I thought that he was a little nutty, but I am now starting to agree with what Awgee is saying.</blockquote>


I am sure you mean well, but I do not remember saying this, and it does not sound to me like something I would say. I avoid making housing price predictions that involve either dollar amounts or years.



I think what I have said is that I think home prices will decline by 78% in real vs. nominal dollars.</blockquote>


I'm usually the one who says nutty things...
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227674337][quote author="PANDA" date=1227654326]

When Awgee made a bold statement that he thinks OC real estate prices can decline down to 1998 - 2000 levels, I thought that he was a little nutty, but I am now starting to agree with what Awgee is saying.</blockquote>


I am sure you mean well, but I do not remember saying this, and it does not sound to me like something I would say. I avoid making housing price predictions that involve either dollar amounts or years.



I think what I have said is that I think home prices will decline by 78% in real vs. nominal dollars.</blockquote>


Awgee, I'm sorry.. but someone definitely did make this statement on the IHB and thought it might of been you. Perhaps i got mixed up with someone else. In any case, my apologies.

What do you think about what i am saying? The government's bailout package is already dropping mortgage rates to 5% possibly even stimulating more sales going into 2009. I am in the opinion that 2009 decline in Irvine may be even less than the 2008 decline because of government intervention to bailing out all these people.



Panda's Irvine Real Estate Forecast - With all the government bail out programs for foreclosures and With serious deflation following a temporary inflation.



Irvine Median Home Prices

2008 - - 8%

2009 - - 6%

2010 - -12%

2011 - - 16%

2012 - - 20%

2013- - 30%



Winex?? Is this forecast nutty enough for you?
 
Short term, I dunno. Long term, I think the government's bailouts will have the opposite effect for which they are intended.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227679171]Short term, I dunno. Long term, I think the government's bailouts will have the opposite effect for which they are intended.</blockquote>


I agree.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227678419][quote author="awgee" date=1227674337][quote author="PANDA" date=1227654326]

When Awgee made a bold statement that he thinks OC real estate prices can decline down to 1998 - 2000 levels, I thought that he was a little nutty, but I am now starting to agree with what Awgee is saying.</blockquote>


I am sure you mean well, but I do not remember saying this, and it does not sound to me like something I would say. I avoid making housing price predictions that involve either dollar amounts or years.



I think what I have said is that I think home prices will decline by 78% in real vs. nominal dollars.</blockquote>


Awgee, I'm sorry.. but someone definitely did make this statement on the IHB and thought it might of been you. Perhaps i got mixed up with someone else. In any case, my apologies.

What do you think about what i am saying? The government's bailout package is already dropping mortgage rates to 5% possibly even stimulating more sales going into 2009. I am in the opinion that 2009 decline in Irvine may be even less than the 2008 decline because of government intervention to bailing out all these people.



Panda's Irvine Real Estate Forecast - With all the government bail out programs for foreclosures and With serious deflation following a temporary inflation.



Irvine Median Home Prices

2008 - - 8%

2009 - - 6%

2010 - -12%

2011 - - 16%

2012 - - 20%

2013- - 30%



Winex?? Is this forecast nutty enough for you?</blockquote>


Panda, I do not understand what you are trying to get at? Are you just throwing numbers in the air hoping someone will say that you have a great forecast?
 
<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2511/">Digging for teh Panda.</a>



I have mentioned 1999 a couple times in the past...but in real dollars or nominal dollars?
 
<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/12/crystal-cove-homesellers-stubborn-on-pricing/6276/">http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/12/crystal-cove-homesellers-stubborn-on-pricing/6276/</a>



Home sellers of their newer home will be the most stubborn in lowering selling price. Confidence is still high for sellers living in the Irvine Ranch from Crystal Cove to Northpark. TIC's moth balled communities are not setting bench mark pricing therefore sellers including bank own are seeking top WTF pricings. IR is right about RE outside the Ranch. Emotion is still running high on the ranch and there is enough critical mass feeling the same. Mass exodus is the first symptom of falling prices like the Inland Empire. We are not seeing any here in the Ranch. TIC's control of most assets on the Ranch is critical in stabilizing the local economic crisis. For residents of Irvine it is a nice insurance. No community is immune to the economic downturn but in Irvine its is felt in a lesser degree.
 
it may have been me, but i doubt that the panda takes my words with the weight of graph's.



i had previously thought that we would be back to 2001 nominal, but am now more inclined to think 1998 or so.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227621130][quote author="awgee" date=1227619977][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227612430][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1227607737]There are three factors that will work strongly against the Irvine market next year:



1. The recession is going to hurt wages, and it will make people more hesitant to buy.

2. The ARM resets will start in earnest, and the Option ARMs will be particularly toxic.

3. The psychology will start to change due to a combination of the recession and the fact that prices have been continually falling for a long time.



I will stick with my forecast. If the drop is less than I projected, it will be because of a delay in the ARM resets leading to foreclosure. If the foreclosures are delayed, it may take longer for prices to drop.</blockquote>


Resets... What resets? Our glorious governmnet is going to force feed an epic number of workouts, loan mods, principal reductions, etc. for anyone that says boo. They'll stem the tide of foreclosures at least until they can beat down the recession. Rat bastard socialist scum...</blockquote>
So far, the default rate on reworked loans is 40%. And that is only so far.</blockquote>


I'm not suggesting that most won't end up as defaults eventually. Just suggesting that the mods will extend the pain/pleasure of price declines. Without all the handouts, we are all buying below rental parity in 2010, heck maybe 2009. Not going happen that quickly now...</blockquote>
So, does this mean that folks in Irvine are "slow" or "special" or ... ?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227695046]So, does this mean that folks in Irvine are "slow" or "special" or ... ?</blockquote>


Duh! Look how long it took before Ipo thought it was a good time to sell his home. Not only was he slow, but he thinks he is special now.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1227696246][quote author="awgee" date=1227695046]So, does this mean that folks in Irvine are "slow" or "special" or ... ?</blockquote>


Duh! Look how long it took before Ipo thought it was a good time to sell his home. Not only was he slow, but he thinks he is special now.</blockquote>


I'll think I am special when prices fall materially from when I sold... Just hasn't happened yet.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227697556][quote author="graphrix" date=1227696246][quote author="awgee" date=1227695046]So, does this mean that folks in Irvine are "slow" or "special" or ... ?</blockquote>


Duh! Look how long it took before Ipo thought it was a good time to sell his home. Not only was he slow, but he thinks he is special now.</blockquote>


I'll think I am special when prices fall materially from when I sold... Just hasn't happened yet.</blockquote>


From an investment perspective, I find waiting to be the most difficult behavior, but also the most profitable.
 
You call it waiting. I call it not spending.



I dont know how all of you are but in the past, when I had a mortgage, I spent less on frivolous "stuff" and saved more for the mortgage payments. Now that I dont have a mortgage, I dont keep as tight a budget.



So, the theory serves true for me...You will purchase a house for less in time, but the money you save will be spent on other things.



[quote author="awgee" date=1227702233][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227697556][quote author="graphrix" date=1227696246][quote author="awgee" date=1227695046]So, does this mean that folks in Irvine are "slow" or "special" or ... ?</blockquote>


Duh! Look how long it took before Ipo thought it was a good time to sell his home. Not only was he slow, but he thinks he is special now.</blockquote>


I'll think I am special when prices fall materially from when I sold... Just hasn't happened yet.</blockquote>


From an investment perspective, I find waiting to be the most difficult behavior, but also the most profitable.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1227745195]You call it waiting. I call it not spending.



I dont know how all of you are but in the past, when I had a mortgage, I spent less on frivolous "stuff" and saved more for the mortgage payments. Now that I dont have a mortgage, I dont keep as tight a budget.



So, the theory serves true for me...You will purchase a house for less in time, but the money you save will be spent on other things.



[quote author="awgee" date=1227702233][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227697556][quote author="graphrix" date=1227696246][quote author="awgee" date=1227695046]So, does this mean that folks in Irvine are "slow" or "special" or ... ?</blockquote>


Duh! Look how long it took before Ipo thought it was a good time to sell his home. Not only was he slow, but he thinks he is special now.</blockquote>


I'll think I am special when prices fall materially from when I sold... Just hasn't happened yet.</blockquote>


From an investment perspective, I find waiting to be the most difficult behavior, but also the most profitable.</blockquote></blockquote>


I spend more when I own a home for hone improvement especially when it's new. I spend less now that I'm renting because I don't care to do things to the house.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227702233]From an investment perspective, I find waiting to be the most difficult behavior, but also the most profitable.</blockquote>


<strong>Abstainer</strong>, <em>n.</em> A weak person who yields to the temptation of denying himself a pleasure.
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1227747368][quote author="awgee" date=1227702233]From an investment perspective, I find waiting to be the most difficult behavior, but also the most profitable.</blockquote>


<strong>Abstainer</strong>, <em>n.</em> A weak person who yields to the temptation of denying himself a pleasure.</blockquote>


Very funny. What is the original definition? Sans edits.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227748585][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1227747368][quote author="awgee" date=1227702233]From an investment perspective, I find waiting to be the most difficult behavior, but also the most profitable.</blockquote>


<strong>Abstainer</strong>, <em>n.</em> A weak person who yields to the temptation of denying himself a pleasure.</blockquote>


Very funny. What is the original definition? Sans edits.</blockquote>


<strong><a href="http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ambrose_Bierce">More</a></strong> from Ambrose Bierce, if you can tolerate the style of humor.
 
I'm no real-estate expert so this is why I ask. Do the futures have any indication or weight or telling where home prices are heading? LA futures for median home price are about 28% less than what it is at currently. Thats a huge

drop. I know LA is not Irvine, but there is no futures market for Irvine. Just getting a feel for it.
 
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