Are there too many people on the sidelines waiting to buy???

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Nude, so what do you propose we do when we disagree ? Keep it to ourselves ? Isn't that the beauty as well....being able to counter, defend, agree, disagree ? I don't think it will be a death to the forums....we do quite well without the rah-rahs.
 
<p>awgee -- you had me at "Gosh..."</p>

<p>For most people, a home is a pretty good investment. If you're talking strictly return on investment, then it pales in comparison to other asset classes, like stocks. But I doubt you will find any lifelong renters out there who are glad they never bought because they view their home as simply another asset class and they could achieve a higher return elsewhere.</p>
 
Thanks for your opinion lendingmaestro that the values will go down for the next 3 to 5 years and that I am wasting my money. I will make sure to look back at this thread in a few years and see if your opinion pans out. In my opinion patience is a virtue... especially if you are buying a house. I think we can all agree that we won't be seeing the double digit growth again for a long time. It isn't a quick buck scheme it's a home, so I don't see it as blowing my money.
 
<p>Trooper, one-on-one, certainly. But dog piling on a member becaused they dare challenge someone in the clique drags the whole thread down. If it spans across threads and becomes the hounding of a specific target, then the forums suffer as a whole. I don't think anyone posting on the blog or these forums needs help in defending themselves.</p>

<p>More to the point, this isn't the "bash the rah-rahs" blog, it's supposed to reflect all aspects of Irvine housing. That neccesarily includes those who think now is a good time for them to buy a home in Irvine, as they will certainly grow in number as time passes and more renters become buyers as the prices come back to fundamentals.</p>
 
Nude, that's like saying a Democrat should visit a Republican blog and try and explain the virtues of their party. I respectfully disagree.
 
<p><em>"Ladera - OCB has the right to put his/her money where he/she wants. If OCB wants to repurpose his/her profits in RE, fine by me. Even better, he/she did his/her homework. Not following blindly, but making an informed choice based on the information available to him/her at the time. "</em> </p>

<p><em>huh? did I ever say I did not do my homework? or that I followed blindly?


</em></p>

<p>Ah, back to reading comprehension: I never said anything about your experience or how you approached things. I was patting OCB on the back for doing certain things. I am confused as to how how you pull a slam out of thin air.</p>




<em>it's supposed to reflect all aspects of Irvine housing</em>





Nude - is it? I haven't found the mission statement. That said, I have no problem with people who respectfully disagree, but pull out the snark and don't be surprised if it comes back tenfold.
 
<p><a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/380/please-be-nice-to-the-newbies/#Item_1">Mission Statement</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
I always enjoy a good debate, but they are difficult to find. Arguing platitudes is a waste of time.





I have stated my case in about 30,000 words in the <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/analysis/">analysis</a> section. If people buy now and it makes them happy, I am happy for them. If they are buying now because they honestly think we are near the bottom or that prices will recover soon, then they are probably going to be very upset in 3 to 5 years when this bubble fully deflates. That will be sad, but they were given access to the evidence and analysis and made other choices.





I will place my faith in data and analysis, and I will adjust my conclusions as conditions change. I don't place much faith in anecdotal evidence and wishful thinking. I've taken positions in the market based on wishful thinking in the past. It generally doesn't turn out too well.





That being said, I could be entirely wrong...
 
<p>RE: I doubt you will find any lifelong renters out there who are glad they never bought </p>

<p>I know one, but then again he's in his rent controlled Santa Monica apartment he's occupied since the90s ...</p>
 
<p>re: democratic or republican blog</p>

<p>1. I don't think anyone's ever asked that before, which says as much as anything</p>

<p>2. As far as I can tell - it's neither - it's libertarian.</p>
 
<p>re: democrat / republican....I was just drawing an analogy, not to be serious. Independent I gather.</p>

<p>I also have a friend who has rented in the same bldg in Santa Monica for over 10 years. She was recently offered 30,000 to move out and she declined ! </p>
 
I agree... arguing platitudes is a waste of time. I am not one to make decisions on wishful thinking or anecdotal evidence but I don't take data and analysis as the 'bible' either. I like to take all of this information, along with my own experiences and financial position, to make my final decision on whether to buy or rent. The final analysis and data can change over time due to any number of conditions. The bottom line is I am not buying this house because I think the market has bottomed out. I am buying the house because it is a house I can be happy in for may years and because I believe that it is a decent investment for the long term. Whether it turns out to be a good investment only time will tell... however I could be entirely wrong also!
 
OCB - Never underestimate the value of a psychic investment. If buying brings you more peace of mind and you can afford it (and it sounds like you can), by all means, have at it. Some folks here are trying to time the bottom and get the most for their money. Fair enough. That, however, isn't for me. I think I would slit my wrists if I had to wait until 2012 for a yard. Once we find a place we like that is affordable on our budget, we'll put an offer in. Yeah, maybe a similar home could be had for less later, but the next place we go, we intend to be in for the long haul. If that's the case, being upside down for a few years won't matter.
 
<p>I have been thinking. Most have predicted that prices would fall. But with falling prices come tighter lending criterias. </p>

<p>So lets say a house was $800k and now the new lower price for this same house is $500k. Most lenders are expecting a 20% down along with stellar credit history, etc. On a $500k home, that down payment is $100k. With median income at $80k a year. Are there many individuals with $100k saved up? </p>

<p>Now, remember most have been irresponsible in the last 2 to 3 years when it comes to borrowing. That leaves a few sensible individuals. These few. Do they have $100k to put down? Just curious.</p>

<p>Now assuming that most do not have $100k in the bank. Are these the same people waiting for prices to fall more so that they can put less down? Since they don't have the money.</p>
 
I actually know someone with $150M in Vanguard Tax Exempt Money Market sitting on the sidelines. I have a smaller but not insubstantial piggy bank ready!
 
<p>What bugs me about ladera1's comment is the fact that it assumes that we here at IHB will lash out at someone for buying a home. This comment is similar to assuming we are all a bunch of bitter renters. Judging by the top posters here this couldn't be further from the truth. It shows complete ignorance of who we are and what we strive to have at this forum. Ladera1 has also made other comments which further adds proof that his/her ignorance and the lack of reading of this blog and forums comes out in his/her comments. So yes the comment may have been snarky and funny but to assume what isn't true and should be clearly known of the people here makes the comment offensive. And yes it is childish to assume and again comes across as smug. I enjoy a good debate and welcome any bullish debate that can produce meaningful dialog. But I will not be tolerant of people who assume from starting one thread that they know who we are and what we are about because I do not tolerate ignorance very well.</p>

<p>ocbuyer,</p>

<p>It sounds like you bought your home for all the right reasons for you and your family. Not only that but it sounds like you are willing to accept the idea that your home in the next few years may go down in value. This shows your are reasonable person with sound logic who isn't going to come here and make smug comments. I look forward to hearing more from you and your time in your new home. Congratulations to you and your family. It sounds like you managed a pretty good deal and because you have piece of mind you should have a very happy life there. </p>

<p>And no I am not saying that to prove a point. I sincerely mean that and if you search around I think I have made several comments to back that up. Of course you will find plenty of very sarcastic ones too. </p>
 
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