Are Higher Gas Prices Supportive for Irvine Housing?

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I had a friend who bought a house in Corona back in '98. Him and his wife were spending over $300/mo on Fast Track. Not sure what gas cost. I never understood why they wouldn't have just had $400 more in mortgage and live somewhere decent as it wouldn't have cost any more.



I've contemplated the IE about as much as Texas... about 30 secs.
 
When we moved from Chino Hills to Orange, the time was the motovation. I got back 3 hours a day for the rest of my life. The money was close to a wash.
 
Graphix: that's a crazy high valuation for commute time. I generally use wage rates, which for a median income of 85,000 in Irvine is 42/hour. (and isn't that household income, too?) Even that's high, based on the actual choices people make - most people, or at least those who accept long commutes, would rather drive than work. With a fair valuation for time, your formula would favor the IE. What's missing, (and it's hard to do) is that it makes sense to accept a moderately smaller place here, which cuts back on the price differential at a loss in quality of life which is fairly low for many people.



I agree everybody *thinks* about the IE. We did, although we chose Orange. OC is better for people who value time, the IE for those who value space. A a lot of people bought in the IE to ride the equity elevatorn because they couldn't afford it here and that motivation should be gone for some time.



No Vas: An hour and a half from Chino Hills to Orange? It's bad, but I don't think it's *that* bad.
 
The evening news was covering the high temp. today. While interviewing a family in a van, the reporter asked, "Where are you heading?" The driver from Victorville replied, "We're heading to the beach! Laguna Beach!" ...Holy geez.



Oh, I hate this but I guess we should take a poll: What is the monthly cost of gasoline for residents of OC vs. the IE.



I'll go first. It cost me $80/mo. Oops, it might help by saying I am from the OC.
 
[quote author="FairEconomist" date=1215648298]Graphix: that's a crazy high valuation for commute time. I generally use wage rates, which for a median income of 85,000 in Irvine is 42/hour. (and isn't that household income, too?) Even that's high, based on the actual choices people make - most people, or at least those who accept long commutes, would rather drive than work. With a fair valuation for time, your formula would favor the IE. What's missing, (and it's hard to do) is that it makes sense to accept a moderately smaller place here, which cuts back on the price differential at a loss in quality of life which is fairly low for many people.



I agree everybody *thinks* about the IE. We did, although we chose Orange. OC is better for people who value time, the IE for those who value space. A a lot of people bought in the IE to ride the equity elevatorn because they couldn't afford it here and that motivation should be gone for some time.



No Vas: An hour and a half from Chino Hills to Orange? It's bad, but I don't think it's *that* bad.</blockquote>


I have to disagree. The difference without using the time value for $1k in mortgage savings was only $2k a year. That is $5.50 a day, which means I get a coffee instead of a latte, and I don't super size my lunch. Which if I were super sizing it, I would need even more time at the gym, which is time lost sitting in car. And, my time value isn't just work, but time for family, friends, IHB, watching a baseball game, watering the tomatoes, watching paint dry, or getting validated. That right there is worth five times what I would ever make at work even if it were $500 a hour.



I didn't want to get into nitpicking the numbers, but I used a 1 hour commute time each way for the IE, and 20 minutes each way for OC. I took that time, 2 hours IE and 40 minutes OC X 5 days X 52 weeks a year. Even if you take your $42 a hour, you will still come out ahead by living in OC. Not only that, but I didn't factor in toll fees, which at an hour each way during peak traffic times is fairly normal, making the non-toll route an even longer commute. With toll fees you can add in about $20 a from the $84 of time value of the commute.



It doesn't make sense to live in the IE unless it is half the cost, and even then my personal opinion is I wouldn't live in the IE if it were 99% less than OC, and I am sure there are many that would agree. There are only so many things money can buy, and time is not one of them.
 
I drove from Chino Hills to Orange. My wife dropped me off and drove the rest of the way to Irvine. My leg took an hour. Hers took another 30 minutes. I was cooling my heels for that extra 1/2 hour each way.... after we moved I got 3 hours back.



Communting out of Chino Hills is pretty brutal. You can fight it out via Carbon Canyon or you can fight it out via the 71. Coming out of Corona is about 30 minutes faster during traffic time, just because it's easier to get on the 91.
 
$80 a month? or you actually mean $80 a week? $80 a month is about one tank of gas per month. My round trip to work is 20 miles without any traffic, and my wife has a round trip commute of 3 miles. Even with that, we have been spending about $400 to $500 a month on gas ( not including the 5% rebate I will get from Costco at year end).
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1215729473]$80 a month? or you actually mean $80 a week? $80 a month is about one tank of gas per month. My round trip to work is 20 miles without any traffic, and my wife has a round trip commute of 3 miles. Even with that, we have been spending about $400 to $500 a month on gas ( not including the 5% rebate I will get from Costco at year end).</blockquote>


Here is a good example of why living next to work to save gas is not possible. Either Irvine123 or his wife has to drive the 20 miles. Some commutes are better than others. The 405 from Long Beach driving into Irvine every morning is pretty bad and they don't even have the benefit of cheaper housing. Commuting is like making some of your payment in labor. I wish they had podcast and Ipods when I was driving from Riverside to Huntington Beach. Back then, we were just getting PCs in the office.



For the record my husband spends about $45 per week on gas. I cut back on my pleasure driving because the prices take all the fun out of it. I have been enjoying my bike and the Metrolink. One Saturday, we got off at the Tustin station and rode around in Irvine and then took the train home from the Irvine Station. Also my daughters will use buses to get to or from Cal State Long Beach. We are not too cut off out here.
 
I don't think the housing prices in Irvine will be supported by higher gas prices.



We are supposing people who do not live in Irvine that work in Irvine will want to live here. We are not supposing the opposite that people in Irvine that do not work in Irvine will move to where they work.



I think each individual has their own tolerance level for traveling to work. I traveled to downtown every day for 2 years. I would have never even considered moving closer to downtown LA to cut down my commute times.



I did the opposite which was quit my job and took what appeared to be a lower paying job but in the end by cutting down on gas and parking I came out ahead at the end of the year.



That may be the direction people go as well. Taking a job closer to home that pays less but nets them more.
 
I enjoy my time back. My last job was in El Segundo and I commuted 1.5 to 2hrs a day, every day. That 15 to 20 hrs a week spent fighting traffic and nearly 600 miles a week on my car. (about 130 a day).



I do not miss it.



When my new job came around it was almost a 30k drop in pay but with the time gained back, the stress relief (happy wife, less car maintence, easier lifestyle), it was well worth it. So I don't save as fast for a new house or that apartment complex I want.... My life is so much better now..



At 2.30 a gallon back then it was expensive. At 5.00 a gallon, it would probably be unsustainable.



good luck

-bix
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1215729473]$80 a month? or you actually mean $80 a week? $80 a month is about one tank of gas per month. My round trip to work is 20 miles without any traffic, and my wife has a round trip commute of 3 miles. Even with that, we have been spending about $400 to $500 a month on gas ( not including the 5% rebate I will get from Costco at year end).</blockquote>


$80 a month. And sometime, even less than $80/mo. How do I know? I am a routine kind of guy. Every Thurs. or Friday I would pay $20.00 at the pump. And not because my gas tank is on empty. Almost always there's more than a 1/4 tank left. (Like today is Thurs.? my car still has more than a 1/4 tank left. So I pour $20.00 to half a tank. Then at the end of the week. The gas needle would reach a quarter down. I pour again to half a tank. As a matter of fact, I have never filled up a full tank.



I don't know if this explain it. But this is my driving techniques. I am the guy that tends to coast towards a stop sign or a red light. I don't accelerate abruptly. I turn off my engine while waiting at the drive thru windows. I almost always drive the slow lane at 65 mph. Usually, I drive behind a big truck because they tend to drive slow and other drivers won't tailgate me. Oh, and one last thing. I can always tell my tires are deflated so I inflate them to the proper air pressure.



$400 - $500 on gasoline a month? That's a fifth of my monthly mortgage. Yikes!
 
Oh, I bought my used car back in 2000. Guess how many times did I replaced my brakes? ....Once. 8 years and replaced them once. A month ago, I thought I was hearing squeaky noises. I brought my car in to check and the mechanic said, "Nope, you still have 70% left on the brake pads."
 
[quote author="reason" date=1215787325]Oh, I bought my used car back in 2000. Guess how many times did I replaced my brakes? ....Once. 8 years and replaced them once. A month ago, I thought I was hearing squeaky noises. I brought my car in to check and the mechanic said, "Nope, you still have 70% left on the brake pads."</blockquote>


I'm doing the El Segundo commute currently. Here's my observations over the last month or two on MPG round trip.



33/34 MPG: Free flowing traffic at 70, little braking for a car rated 21/29. at 60/65 it's closer to 36+ MPG.

30/31 MPG: Southbay summer slow down slight occasional stop & go paying attention to minimize braking via maintaining buffer space with light acceleration and easing off the gas to slow.

27/28 MPG: Same traffic level less attention to easing off the gas to maintain space buffer and keep rolling (heavier braking).

25/26 MPG: as above heavier gas.

24/25 MPG: Heavier traffic more stop and go.



For comparison, my previous short stop light commute of about 4/5 miles through CM and Irvine ran 21 MPG.



To me it's pretty obvious, relieve congestion and we can get a big mileage boost as long as we don't stomp the gas again. If we could get the freeways flowing cleanly at 65 or even 60 MPH, we'd have both a dramatic savings in fuel and time.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1215831381]



To me it's pretty obvious, relieve congestion and we can get a big mileage boost as long as we don't stomp the gas again. If we could get the freeways flowing cleanly at 65 or even 60 MPH, we'd have both a dramatic savings in fuel and time.</blockquote>


To that point, I was attending a meeting in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, and someone asked me what the speed limit was on the freeway in LA. I said I thought it was posted at 65, but the general rule of thumb is the speed limit is "as fast as your car will go until you have to hit the brakes for traffic again".



Just like we have no discipline on HELOCs, I doubt most of the natives here have much discipline with their right foot.
 
I don't know how you keep a gap in Socal traffic. Every time I get what I think is 'defensable' space, some meathead puts the slide on me to take it away. And then brakes. Right in front of me. Annoying.
 
Wait!!! Since when the hell did we get speed limits on the freeway? No one told me.



Now... if you will excuse me, I need to use my HELOC credit card to get gas.
 
No_Vase, I attribute it to summer lite and $5/gal gas. Traffic has really lightened up since the 1st week of June. The compression points are still doing 20/30 and a couple car lengths is all you need which with the heavier traffic isn't enough for the guy slightly ahead and to the side to squeeze in and isn't worth the car in front of them cutting over.



But the meatheads abound, however in general, as gas as spiked, the drivers have steadily mellowed with the lane change jockey for a inch attitude. Tailgating has slacked too AFAICT.



And while many may curse me and it's too early to tell, I suspect the hands free law has actually helped traffic in the first 10 days of July. (or maybe it's just the holiday). But prior, every 1/3 car had a cell held up to their head and were not paying attention to the road. Now you don't see the phones, I saw one yesterday, and looking around only have seen one other driver obviously yammering away at the hands free phone. Most you don't even see a headset. It seems to show in their driving as they are much more attentive to where the car is in front of them and to the sides.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1215833034]I don't know how you keep a gap in Socal traffic.</blockquote>


Ask bix about borrowing his Tommy Gun: it should clarify what you classify as "defensible" for other drivers.
 
<em>And while many may curse me and it?s too early to tell, I suspect the hands free law has actually helped traffic in the first 10 days of July.</em>



NSR, I'm glad to hear that you can see a tangible difference....I've been working nights lately, so it's not easy for me to notice this.



BTW, all you doubters out there: We are giving out tickets like hotcakes for this. It's like shooting fish in a barrel. Do yourselves a favor and go out and get a handsfree device. /preaching
 
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