Anyone been watching the Towering Inferno at Marquee Place?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Somewhere in the off-topic derailment I helped create was a potentially interesting tangent about the highrises in downtown LA and how they may contrast with similar attempts in OC.



In the short term, both sub-markets are doomed to keep on falling like a rock. The reality is that Southern California is the land of cars and backyards, and all of the social policy and chonus buildings in the world won't change that this is what people here want.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1219922659][quote author="carsany" date=1219916089]Bosox has handed Yankees there asses. Can't say I am fan, but I did love the Yankees back when I had season tix between the 98-01 years. That was a great team to watch then. Tino, Paul, Bernie, Jeter, Jorge, Clemens and Mariano with his A game then. Team got kind a lost for the past few years. I lived on Newbury St. in Boston for 4 years in the early 90's. and the Boston games were a blast too. But then again, University days. That was all drinking, before and after. Everything was fun then :-)</blockquote>
Ah, Newbury Street. It's a must-do destination on all my return trips to Boston.



Now I'm homesick. :sick:</blockquote>


For me its the North End. Neptune Oyster Bar.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1219977383][quote author="CalGal" date=1219922659][quote author="carsany" date=1219916089]Bosox has handed Yankees there asses. Can't say I am fan, but I did love the Yankees back when I had season tix between the 98-01 years. That was a great team to watch then. Tino, Paul, Bernie, Jeter, Jorge, Clemens and Mariano with his A game then. Team got kind a lost for the past few years. I lived on Newbury St. in Boston for 4 years in the early 90's. and the Boston games were a blast too. But then again, University days. That was all drinking, before and after. Everything was fun then :-)</blockquote>
Ah, Newbury Street. It's a must-do destination on all my return trips to Boston.



Now I'm homesick. :sick:</blockquote>


For me its the North End. Neptune Oyster Bar.</blockquote>
I'll start a <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2961/">Boston thread</a> in the Off Topic area so we don't derail this topic. :-)
 
agreed 100% Hormiguero. It will be interesting to see how all these condos turnout in the next couple of years. In the meantime, I am more than content renting :-)



I'll pass on the drink Adam. No offense taken, but you don't come across as a cool person. I am dumbfounded at the point you are trying to make? I am arrogant and ignorant because I mentioned where I lived before. I actually hate living in NYC, hence my move here. You make me sound like some kind of NY fanboy?? Where in my post did I portray this?



I guess Adam would expect people to make comparisons on where to live based on places you read about in People magazine and Travel channel ??











[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1219977115]Somewhere in the off-topic derailment I helped create was a potentially interesting tangent about the highrises in downtown LA and how they may contrast with similar attempts in OC.



In the short term, both sub-markets are doomed to keep on falling like a rock. The reality is that Southern California is the land of cars and backyards, and all of the social policy and chonus buildings in the world won't change that this is what people here want.</blockquote>
 
<img src="http://www.funnyforumpics.com/forums/Thread-Hijack/1/Hijack-Car.jpg" alt="" />



Name what movie this is for, win a round of drinks from no_vas next get together.
 
And were back, thanks for sticking around through that.... haha



Here is a question / comment about the towers including the new ones in Santa Ana on MacArthur.



I included some satire to keep it light and fun:



I am 27, would love to live in a high rise, think of the parties, late nights coming back from Sutra or The Helm :), the Irvine PD couldn't get to my floor, because my personal buttler from the HOA dues better prevent police access to my floor. Unfortunately I can't live there, not on daddy's loans, not on the bank loan's not anyway anyhow.



Even if I am lucky enough to pull down 100k a year, If I want to afford a 4000 monthly payment to the bank, 1200 in HOA and 1% tax, around 60-70k for the house alone. I need dual incomes. This doesn't work for many reasons, what wife/girlfriend is going to want to live the lifestyle of constant parties, entertainment, and bringing back my drunk friends in a cab. If I am married and my wife also pulls that much, why would I want to live in a tower, with that money I'd buy something with a 5000sqft lot.



I know my math and supposed lifestyle are inaccurate, but my point is these are priced out of reach of 99.9% of anyone who might be interested in living there.



Will these units EVER come down to 250,000 (in my mind closer to reality) or will the HOA and people in the unit prevent this?
 
[quote author="Irvinite" date=1220379635]And were back, thanks for sticking around through that.... haha



Here is a question / comment about the towers including the new ones in Santa Ana on MacArthur.



I included some satire to keep it light and fun:



I am 27, would love to live in a high rise, think of the parties, late nights coming back from Sutra or The Helm :), the Irvine PD couldn't get to my floor, because my personal buttler from the HOA dues better prevent police access to my floor. Unfortunately I can't live there, not on daddy's loans, not on the bank loan's not anyway anyhow.



Even if I am lucky enough to pull down 100k a year, If I want to afford a 4000 monthly payment to the bank, 1200 in HOA and 1% tax, around 60-70k for the house alone. I need dual incomes. This doesn't work for many reasons, what wife/girlfriend is going to want to live the lifestyle of constant parties, entertainment, and bringing back my drunk friends in a cab. If I am married and my wife also pulls that much, why would I want to live in a tower, with that money I'd buy something with a 5000sqft lot.



I know my math and supposed lifestyle are inaccurate, but my point is these are priced out of reach of 99.9% of anyone who might be interested in living there.



Will these units EVER come down to 250,000 (in my mind closer to reality) or will the HOA and people in the unit prevent this?</blockquote>


Oh, thank HEAVEN, someone got back OT. Those posts were like dead opossums in the road.



How would the HOA prevent the prices from dropping further? Usually I see these smaller 2/2s on CL for $2700 per month. Conveniently, I calculated this:



Selling price: $250,000

Loan amount: $200,000 (20% down)

Interest Rate: 6.25%, 30-year fixed

An Prop Tax: $2750 (1.1%?)

Annuel HOA: $13,500 ($1,125/mo)

Ann Haz Ins: $1,200 (estimated, please correct if way wrong)



Estimated monthly payment: $2,685. $250k actually does look very close. I bet they'd have plenty of buyers at a price a bit higher than that, though. The only problem is I'm sure they can raise your HOA dues a certain max percentage every year, which they will. Even a 5% increase every year would be over $50 per month.
 
Get real guys. As much as I have enjoyed and ridiculed these towers they are a really nice product. I just don't foresee them ever getting into those 250 zones. Yes, the HOAs are crushing and the competitive supply is enormous but I don't think it is of equal quality. (look at me defending this place!)
 
so where do you think they will be in a few years if not $250k?



and who will be the buyers at the price you predict? all corporate?
 
I doubt highly anything will drop into the 250k range in the Marquee. The smaller floor plans are still a 2bed/2bath and some people are still willing to pay more for a higher quality product. If Marquee sells for $250k, a practically new attached townhouse in woodbury around 1700 sq ft with junkie appliances and brady bunch tiles would be selling for around $150k then?? I would be the first on line to pick one or two up. I think the more likely scenario IMO is the smaller ones will drop to the low 300's and the decent size units will be in the low 400's. Then again, that is my opinion. If it goes to 250k, this neighborhood will be pretty sad. Those older brady bunch houses will be worthless, Fletcher Jones will be selling there AMG cars for 50% off and South Coast Plaza would close down.
 
[quote author="carsany" date=1220421935]I doubt highly anything will drop into the 250k range in the Marquee. The smaller floor plans are still a 2bed/2bath and some people are still willing to pay more for a higher quality product. If Marquee sells for $250k, a practically new attached townhouse in woodbury around 1700 sq ft with junkie appliances and brady bunch tiles would be selling for around $150k then?? I would be the first on line to pick one or two up. I think the more likely scenario IMO is the smaller ones will drop to the low 300's and the decent size units will be in the low 400's. Then again, that is my opinion. If it goes to 250k, this neighborhood will be pretty sad. Those older brady bunch houses will be worthless, Fletcher Jones will be selling there AMG cars for 50% off and South Coast Plaza would close down.</blockquote>


While Marquee prices may not drop to $250k range, I wouldn't assume that prices for high rise product would have a linear correlation to other Irvine real estate. Since high rise is very much a niche product, with unproven demand, it is quite possible that it will experience price drops much more drastic than other product segments.



Still, prices in the $350-$450 range would make the project much more attractive.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1220405246]Get real guys. As much as I have enjoyed and ridiculed these towers they are a really nice product. I just don't foresee them ever getting into those 250 zones. Yes, the HOAs are crushing and the competitive supply is enormous but I don't think it is of equal quality. (look at me defending this place!)</blockquote>


I think you're under estimating the impact of $1125/month in HOA that is likely to only increase.



More importantly, in 1999/2000, $190,000 would buy you a wide range of 3/2.5 1400s townhomes. That really is how distorted the pricing is.
 
Yes, but what are the taxes like for these? If they don't have mello roos, HOA + mello roos for woodbury is over 800 a month, so this isn't <I>that</I> much more then a condo there.
 
[quote author="carsany" date=1220421935]I doubt highly anything will drop into the 250k range in the Marquee. The smaller floor plans are still a 2bed/2bath and some people are still willing to pay more for a higher quality product. If Marquee sells for $250k, a practically new attached townhouse in woodbury around 1700 sq ft with junkie appliances and brady bunch tiles would be selling for around $150k then?? I would be the first on line to pick one or two up. I think the more likely scenario IMO is the smaller ones will drop to the low 300's and the decent size units will be in the low 400's. Then again, that is my opinion. If it goes to 250k, this neighborhood will be pretty sad. Those older brady bunch houses will be worthless, Fletcher Jones will be selling there AMG cars for 50% off and South Coast Plaza would close down.</blockquote>


you mean the same way that Fletcher Jones didn't sell cars and there was no South Coast Plaza when



This SFR sold for $200K in 2001

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Varesa-92620/home/4782141



or this condo sold for $200K in 2003

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Echo-Run-92614/unit-22/home/5641244



I think that the brady bunch houses will actually be supported by the high taxes and HOAs in the newer developments. $500/month is basically $100k of home value without the supplemental taxes (more or less, i don't want to get into a huge debate over the figure if its actually 95k or 105k my argument doesn't change) So to have a HOA + Mello Roos of $800 a month means that you are actually paying $150k more than a house without that. Therefore if the newer woodbridge condos drop to $200k, a brady bunch house may stay at $350k to keep the same monthly cash flow out. The same argument works for Marquee, although personally, i think rental values are more applicable at Marquee as the units are so directly comparable to each other.
 
Why am I hearing so much negativity about Marquee when compared to other nearby high rises? I agree they are overpriced, but so are the others. What makes this one different?
 
EricG, I heard Fletch Jones laid off a few people a couple of weeks ago? Actually, I don't know why I put the question mark, I heard from a Guy who works there..



But back to Marquee, I don't think anyone is picking on that place exclusively, all those high rises have had their share of air time on IHB...



I like all of them myself, they're just too high priced...
 
quote author="dayday" date="1220572990"]Why am I hearing so much negativity about Marquee when compared to other nearby high rises? I agree they are overpriced, but so are the others. What makes this one different?</blockquote>


dayday,



This little petri-dish called Marquee is not the focus of "negativity" as much as it is the focus of full circle analysis. If you follow this thread and its predecessors back to the construction and sale of this little high rise experiment you will find that long ago the board itself came to the conclusion that this project would fail. It is now in just that process of failure we find ourselves. This is a template for all the other projects that subsequently sprouted up all over the OC. What happens in Marquee does not stay at the Marquee. It gravitates to all the other projects in town. Thus close scrutiny of these towers can shed light on the future.
 
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