Another 20%-25% drop in the next 3-4 Years in Irvine?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
While there is a presence of realestate related jobs in Irvine, by no mean does it represent the majority job market. There are lots of bio-medical related companies here. Not to mention FDA's brand new lab off of Jamboree.



Speaking of FDA's office, In that area there's also what used to be Rockwell International (now Conexant/Jazz/Mindspeed) which employee tons of people. And to add to ABC123's list, some other well know tech companies in the vicinity includes Linksys (now in Cisco Irvine office), D-Link, buy.com, Q-Logic, Ben-Q. And even non-IT related companies such as Saleen (mustang modder), Oakley, O'Neill, St John, etc.



Point is, Irvine's advantage is not about massive jobs in a specific industry, but the variety of companies. Housing crash will not be triggered by failure of single industry such as dot com or subprime mortgage, but a serious economic downturn amongst the whole economy. By then I don't think most of us will be looking at buying that cheap house, but rather looking for a new job.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217989165][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217986649]The article was a survey by the American Electronic Association. A little more credible than the articles you cite which consistently lump IT jobs in with other high tech jobs. Consulting or corporate IT <> high tech.



But the thread here was about Irvine seeing another 20-25% drop. Based on the published household median and median prices combined with the hazy outlook for proven high paying occupations in OC, the prices should fall by at least another 25%. Incidentally SJC with the rising tech salaries and rate of median price decline is starting to look MORE affordable than Irvine.



It all goes back to jobs.</blockquote>


The article was from SFGate aka the San Francisco Chronicle, which cherry picked the numbers for the bay area and a few losers to compare it to. Link the entire survey and I bet you will see OC on the list in the top five for salary growth. Nice spin... are you sure you are in tech or really are you in RE? Did you even bother to go back and check the EDD link or any of the other surveys from the other link? It looks like you didn't, because you might find your point about IT and tech jobs would be found to be a complete fallacy.



You are right... the thread was about price drops, and with the rising salaries and increasing jobs in both OC and SC, it makes OC even more affordable and nicer place to live. You like San Jose, that is cool, but this is the Irvine housing blog, and Irvine is in OC, so we like OC not San Jose. If people loved San Jose so much then there would be a blog and forums just like this, and maybe there is. Maybe you can find more people that will agree with you there, but I am not going to go to a San Jose blog and post biased stats on job growth trying to say it is better in OC. That would, well, just be childish and lame.</blockquote>


I looked at your links. Why did you ignore the US Govt Bureau of Labor Statistics? These further support the survey you cite as using "cherry picked" numbers. Per the BLS, in Q407 OC avg weekly wage was $1027. Santa Clara county was $1700. That is a huge gap:http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.t01.htm

Now let's examine the avg weekly wage of the 10 highest counties:

New York, N.Y. $1,862

Santa Clara, Calif. 1,700

Fairfield, Conn. 1,575

Suffolk, Mass. 1,546

San Francisco, Calif. 1,529

San Mateo, Calif. 1,513

Washington, D.C. 1,506

Somerset, N.J. 1,461

Arlington, Va. 1,458

Fairfax, Va. 1,358



No OC or LA? Check. Does it line up with the major high paying tech centers of employment spelled out in the survey that was cherrypicked? Check.



Oh wait - OC did merit mention in the 10 largest counties with the SMALLEST avg wage gains:

The smallest wage gain among the 10 largest counties

occurred in Miami-Dade, Fla. (0.6 percent), followed by Maricopa,

Ariz. (2.0 percent), and Orange, Calif. (2.8 percent). (San Mateo and Santa Clara registered 8% wage growth)



If I recall, Miami and Phoenix housing markets are in the toilet. Extrapolation would lead one to believe OC will follow suit.



So now I have correlated my thesis with two sets of data, and I challenge anyone to show me more definitive and accepted wage stats than BLS. THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE.



So in summary, OC has 40% lower avg wages and the third lowest rate of wage gains in the nation with among the highest median housing prices. The data spells a grim picture and yields a positive conclusion for the title of this thread.
 
<a href="http://marketing.dice.com/pdf/Dice_2007_TechSalarySurvey_1-31-08.pdf">Dice's 2007 Salary Survey</a> has LA/OC as #4 tech job market in the nation in terms of average salary... SV has a 16% wage premium according to their findings.



Most of the data sources we have access to, and remember I run a smallish IT staffing and ERP consulting firm operating primarily in four markets nationally (no longer in the Bay Area though), put SV salaries for comparable positions at around a 10-15% premium at a similar-sized organization. As there is a higher proportion of larger high tech employers in SV, the overall premium probably registers more around the neighbor of 12-18% I'd guess...
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1218000231]I looked at your links. Why did you ignore the US Govt Bureau of Labor Statistics? These further support the survey you cite as using "cherry picked" numbers. Per the BLS, in Q407 OC avg weekly wage was $1027. Santa Clara county was $1700. That is a huge gap:http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.t01.htm

Now let's examine the avg weekly wage of the 10 highest counties:

New York, N.Y. $1,862

Santa Clara, Calif. 1,700

Fairfield, Conn. 1,575

Suffolk, Mass. 1,546

San Francisco, Calif. 1,529

San Mateo, Calif. 1,513

Washington, D.C. 1,506

Somerset, N.J. 1,461

Arlington, Va. 1,458

Fairfax, Va. 1,358



No OC or LA? Check. Does it line up with the major high paying tech centers of employment spelled out in the survey that was cherrypicked? Check.



Oh wait - OC did merit mention in the 10 largest counties with the SMALLEST avg wage gains:

The smallest wage gain among the 10 largest counties

occurred in Miami-Dade, Fla. (0.6 percent), followed by Maricopa,

Ariz. (2.0 percent), and Orange, Calif. (2.8 percent). (San Mateo and Santa Clara registered 8% wage growth)



If I recall, Miami and Phoenix housing markets are in the toilet. Extrapolation would lead one to believe OC will follow suit.



So now I have correlated my thesis with two sets of data, and I challenge anyone to show me more definitive and accepted wage stats than BLS. THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE.



So in summary, OC has 40% lower avg wages and the third lowest rate of wage gains in the nation with among the highest median housing prices. The data spells a grim picture and yields a positive conclusion for the title of this thread.</blockquote>


Ummm... where do you think the EDD gets their numbers?



Anyway, you only see it as SJ is better, so to you it is. That is why you live there. Good for you. I live here, and I see OC as better, and so does most everyone else who posts here on the Irvine housing blog, again not San Jose housing blog. Plus, everyone I have met here on the forums gets paid way more than the average weekly wage, so it really doesn't matter. So in conclusion you get paid a premium to live in SJ, but because your job market is sooooooo much better than ours, then home prices will stay inflated in SJ. That is awesome... for those who live here, make slightly less, but the cost of living is better and getting better because no one else gets paid well and there are no jobs. Huh... sounds like we have the better situation here in OC who have jobs if you are looking for a home. Sucks for you though.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218001906]<a href="http://marketing.dice.com/pdf/Dice_2007_TechSalarySurvey_1-31-08.pdf">Dice's 2007 Salary Survey</a> has LA/OC as #4 tech job market in the nation in terms of average salary... SV has a 16% wage premium according to their findings.



Most of the data sources we have access to, and remember I run a smallish IT staffing and ERP consulting firm operating primarily in four markets nationally (no longer in the Bay Area though), put SV salaries for comparable positions at around a 10-15% premium at a similar-sized organization. As there is a higher proportion of larger high tech employers in SV, the overall premium probably registers more around the neighbor of 12-18% I'd guess...</blockquote>


IPO - thanks for the data. Let me ask you a question: does your firm place HW and SW engineers at high tech firms (meaning semiconductor vendors, software companies, computer or networking OEMs) or IT-type folks (Java developers, sys admins, ERP types) in roles in non-high tech firms, like say staffing developers at Capital Group? Dice would capture those IT/ERP jobs, but the survey by the American Electronics Association would not classify those as high tech jobs. Also, which of your 4 marekts are showing the strongest growth now? Thanks.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1218008226][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218001906]<a href="http://marketing.dice.com/pdf/Dice_2007_TechSalarySurvey_1-31-08.pdf">Dice's 2007 Salary Survey</a> has LA/OC as #4 tech job market in the nation in terms of average salary... SV has a 16% wage premium according to their findings.



Most of the data sources we have access to, and remember I run a smallish IT staffing and ERP consulting firm operating primarily in four markets nationally (no longer in the Bay Area though), put SV salaries for comparable positions at around a 10-15% premium at a similar-sized organization. As there is a higher proportion of larger high tech employers in SV, the overall premium probably registers more around the neighbor of 12-18% I'd guess...</blockquote>


IPO - thanks for the data. Let me ask you a question: does your firm place HW and SW engineers at high tech firms (meaning semiconductor vendors, software companies, computer or networking OEMs) or IT-type folks (Java developers, sys admins, ERP types) in roles in non-high tech firms, like say staffing developers at Capital Group? Dice would capture those IT/ERP jobs, but the survey by the American Electronics Association would not classify those as high tech jobs. Also, which of your 4 marekts are showing the strongest growth now? Thanks.</blockquote>


We do both but IT roles at non tech organizations would be the most predominant. My second largest revenue segment are JDE and PS functional and technical resources, mostly into manufacturing, goverment, and education. I have some software engineers, QA types, PMs, and BAs at software companies and some manufacturing engineers at a fabrication company, but we try not to stray too much in HW and/or embedded systems... HW guys are a much tougher find on the recruiting side so the order to cash cycle is much longer.



I agree that the breadth of Dice's survey is quite wide and the comp for a similar position between a true tech firm and a non-tech firm would likely be higher. SW engineers at Symantec are going to make probably 20-25% more than their counterparts at non-tech firms. That's one of the reasons its so hard to pry them away. We've occassionally had companies looking for hardcore guru kernel-level senior developers but many of those guys are making big cash at places like Microsoft, Symantec, VMware, etc. and wouldn't normally dream of heading to a non-tech firm.



No market is showing growth now. Carolinas are in the tank of a result of pullbacks in spending by the banks and financial services. Phoenix has been in the doldrums for a while. Denver has been in the doldrums for quite some time. So Cal has actually been the steadiest of late, but I don't think that is a reflection of the local economic conditions, but more the strength of a new team we have here... They are finding the going very tough though.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218010799][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1218008226][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218001906]<a href="http://marketing.dice.com/pdf/Dice_2007_TechSalarySurvey_1-31-08.pdf">Dice's 2007 Salary Survey</a> has LA/OC as #4 tech job market in the nation in terms of average salary... SV has a 16% wage premium according to their findings.



Most of the data sources we have access to, and remember I run a smallish IT staffing and ERP consulting firm operating primarily in four markets nationally (no longer in the Bay Area though), put SV salaries for comparable positions at around a 10-15% premium at a similar-sized organization. As there is a higher proportion of larger high tech employers in SV, the overall premium probably registers more around the neighbor of 12-18% I'd guess...</blockquote>


IPO - thanks for the data. Let me ask you a question: does your firm place HW and SW engineers at high tech firms (meaning semiconductor vendors, software companies, computer or networking OEMs) or IT-type folks (Java developers, sys admins, ERP types) in roles in non-high tech firms, like say staffing developers at Capital Group? Dice would capture those IT/ERP jobs, but the survey by the American Electronics Association would not classify those as high tech jobs. Also, which of your 4 marekts are showing the strongest growth now? Thanks.</blockquote>


We do both but IT roles at non tech organizations would be the most predominant. My second largest revenue segment are JDE and PS functional and technical resources, mostly into manufacturing, goverment, and education. I have some software engineers, QA types, PMs, and BAs at software companies and some manufacturing engineers at a fabrication company, but we try not to stray too much in HW and/or embedded systems... HW guys are a much tougher find on the recruiting side so the order to cash cycle is much longer.



I agree that the breadth of Dice's survey is quite wide and the comp for a similar position between a true tech firm and a non-tech firm would likely be higher. SW engineers at Symantec are going to make probably 20-25% more than their counterparts at non-tech firms. That's one of the reasons its so hard to pry them away. We've occassionally had companies looking for hardcore guru kernel-level senior developers but many of those guys are making big cash at places like Microsoft, Symantec, VMware, etc. and wouldn't normally dream of heading to a non-tech firm.



No market is showing growth now. Carolinas are in the tank of a result of pullbacks in spending by the banks and financial services. Phoenix has been in the doldrums for a while. Denver has been in the doldrums for quite some time. So Cal has actually been the steadiest of late, but I don't think that is a reflection of the local economic conditions, but more the strength of a new team we have here... They are finding the going very tough though.</blockquote>


thanks for sharing the data. It's very interesting. I think your company is a good inidicator for the state of professional services as a job segment. If the FCBs start dumping Treasuries and flushing the dollar down the drain, we could see a wave of on-shoring and expansion of domestic production, which means your business should take off again. Recruiting is an awesome business if you can ride out the down cycles.
 
OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. That means less professionals and generally lower incomes once various speculative bubbles wash out. It's also much too dependent on real estate and finance as a job creator. The monoculture of TIC doesn't help.



Save the anecdotals, please. There are more people in OC than in the state of CT - personally knowing a few dozen (or thousand) people that fit a profile means less than nothing in the big picture.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.
 
<a href="http://www.hanfordsentinel.com/articles/2008/07/29/news/doc488f5919d62b1072221873.txt">http://www.hanfordsentinel.com/articles/2008/07/29/news/doc488f5919d62b1072221873.txt</a>



This is from my childhood hometown newspaper last week. It lies just in between SC and OC.



When it comes to lack of oppourtunity, you folks don't have any idea what you are(n't) missing.
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1218073076][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.</blockquote>


Cal Tech & Harvey Mudd grads do better than Stanford & Berkeley grads.



http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Salaries_for_Colleges_by_Region-sort.html
 
[quote author="ERPguy" date=1218077675][quote author="25w100k+" date=1218073076][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.</blockquote>


Cal Tech & Harvey Mudd grads do better than Stanford & Berkeley grads.



http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Salaries_for_Colleges_by_Region-sort.html</blockquote>


I am a Harvey Mudd grad but my salary is lower than many upper strata salary of Stanford and Berkeley grads.



Both CalTech and Harvey Mudd are small schools. Student enrollment is about several thousands compared to 40,000 at Stanford and Berkeley. Graduates from the small schools made fairly good money getting jobs right out of college but that is not even close to some top salary earners from Stanford and Berkeley.



The larger schools also produced a lot of low income earners in skewing the average salary down because many of the students advancing to PHD and research programs that tend to have a much lower salary scale. Both Cal Tech and Harvey Mudd do not have graduste programs while the larger schools offer advance degrees.
 
[quote author="ERPguy" date=1218077675]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Salaries_for_Colleges_by_Region-sort.html</blockquote>


*ahem*

Where did they get those numbers?

Look where SC is ranked, in the middle just above UC Davis.

We should be at the top of that list.

Just a moment, let me check the party school rankings
 
[quote author="ERPguy" date=1218077675][quote author="25w100k+" date=1218073076][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.</blockquote>


Cal Tech & Harvey Mudd grads do better than Stanford & Berkeley grads.



http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Salaries_for_Colleges_by_Region-sort.html</blockquote>


Perhaps their mechanical engineering/aerospace programs are better, I have no idea, but I don't believe Cal Tech or Harvey Mudd have top CS programs. Starting salary surveys are pretty much useless too, as they don't take into account the hundreds (or thousands) of graduates that don't land jobs.
 
Top party school is University of Florida at Gainesville, where

my daughter went. She got an excellent education.



There was however, an incident involving booze and trees however.
 
[quote author="lawyerliz" date=1218082733]Top party school is University of Florida at Gainesville, where

my daughter went. She got an excellent education.



There was however, an incident involving booze and trees however.</blockquote>


Yeah, I can see why they're number#1

She looks hot?



<img src="http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2006/sioncampus/10/03/sterger.swamp/p1_sterger2.jpg" alt="" />



Go Gators!
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1218073076][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.</blockquote>


*cough*maybe it is the company not offering competitive salaries/benes*cough*



I know a UCI grad, who is extremely talented and knowledgeable, makes more than a $100k with great benefits. Mmmm... I think I remember something about just being short of $100k once before. You aren't going to get talent if you don't pay for it. Trust me, there are some UCI grads that you wonder WTF happened, and how they got their degree, but then again they are not making $100k either. It's not always the school, some people are just stupid but get by. Also, UCI suffers from not teaching social skills or have a lack of social activities to do well in an interview situation. Sadly, that is a benefit of a school that has a better social scene. Sometimes that can be a detriment too, they can seem great in person and on paper, but as soon as you get them working you realize they don't know squat. It is hard to find talented CS/CE grads, too many got into it because it was the thing to do, just like doctors who leave the objects they drop in the body during surgery.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1218085843][quote author="25w100k+" date=1218073076][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.</blockquote>


*cough*maybe it is the company not offering competitive salaries/benes*cough*



I know a UCI grad, who is extremely talented and knowledgeable, makes more than a $100k with great benefits. Mmmm... I think I remember something about just being short of $100k once before. You aren't going to get talent if you don't pay for it. Trust me, there are some UCI grads that you wonder WTF happened, and how they got their degree, but then again they are not making $100k either. It's not always the school, some people are just stupid but get by. Also, UCI suffers from not teaching social skills or have a lack of social activities to do well in an interview situation. Sadly, that is a benefit of a school that has a better social scene. Sometimes that can be a detriment too, they can seem great in person and on paper, but as soon as you get them working you realize they don't know squat. It is hard to find talented CS/CE grads, too many got into it because it was the thing to do, just like doctors who leave the objects they drop in the body during surgery.</blockquote>


I work with a great programmer from UCI. Another friend is doing well at google who came out of UCI. Don't get me wrong, you can be a rockstar and have a degree from UCI. Its just very *rare* from what I've seen, and has more to do with the person then the schooling. 100k right out of school from UCI? Not unless we're talking many years of professional experience before or during his/her schooling...
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1218085843][quote author="25w100k+" date=1218073076][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1218060613]OC is seriously lacking in institutions of higher education relative to its size and significance. </blockquote>


Agreed. No offense to the alumini here, but UCI just doesn't cut it in regards to a CS/CE program from what I've seen. Our company is having a hard time finding qualified Software Engineers despite being 15 minutes from a major university. Thats a problem. We need a Stanford or Berkley quality CS department here or tech growth is going to struggle.</blockquote>


*cough*maybe it is the company not offering competitive salaries/benes*cough*



I know a UCI grad, who is extremely talented and knowledgeable, makes more than a $100k with great benefits. Mmmm... I think I remember something about just being short of $100k once before. You aren't going to get talent if you don't pay for it. Trust me, there are some UCI grads that you wonder WTF happened, and how they got their degree, but then again they are not making $100k either. It's not always the school, some people are just stupid but get by. Also, UCI suffers from not teaching social skills or have a lack of social activities to do well in an interview situation. Sadly, that is a benefit of a school that has a better social scene. Sometimes that can be a detriment too, they can seem great in person and on paper, but as soon as you get them working you realize they don't know squat. It is hard to find talented CS/CE grads, too many got into it because it was the thing to do, just like doctors who leave the objects they drop in the body during surgery.</blockquote>


I was at an amazing USC alumni event last week in Silicon Valley. It featured 2 extremely prominent VCs (David Lane, Onset Ventures and Mark Stevens, Sequoia) and the CEO of Wind River Systems (publicly traded OS company). All three are USC Engineering School grads, and were conducting a panel for area alumni sharing their experiences that led to their success. There is an incredibly strong sense of community within the USC alumni ranks and the current administration is strengthening it tremendously, especially in Engineering. Stanford is the birthplace of the entire personal computer industry and most of the networking and internet industries, and Cal has 19 Nobel laureates and is still the center of the universe for many many academc disciplines. For OC to grow its knowledge based economy they need the local insitutions to develop their alumni communities (like USC) and place some big bets on organic growth through IP commercialization (like Stanford).
 
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