Another 20%-25% drop in the next 3-4 Years in Irvine?

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billbaldi_IHB

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If you go by the Median Prices for the OC from 1988 ($184K) to 2000 ($271K) prices appreciated 47.2% in a 12 year period. If you apply the same logic to Home prices between 2000 to 2012 that would mean that the median home price in the OC in 2012 would be around 399K. If Irvine commands a 20% premium over the OC which I think is reasonable we are looking at $480K for the median in Irvine. I think that it is a distinct possibility of where we are headed. There is going to be a second wave of people walking away from their homes. The economy will get worse in the next year or two. Interest rates will be higher in the future than they are now. I think 9% for Mortgages is not out of the question by 2010. That will put further downward pressure on home prices. The housing decline is not near the end. Normally when bubbles happen the prices actually go below what they should be before correcting to the norms. So with those numbers we should see another 20% -25% on the downside although that number is not inflation adjusted. What do you guys think?
 
Only another 10-15% tops. The US dollar is now only worth HALF as much as it was worth back in 2000. So...Irvine's medium price should bottom somewhere in the 5's.
 
it's going to be more like 25%+ just by numbers. average family income in irvine is 85k. full docs that'll qualify you for mid upper 3s for the avg property.
 
[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1217240735]Only another 10-15% tops. The US dollar is now only worth HALF as much as it was worth back in 2000. So...Irvine's medium price should bottom somewhere in the 5's.</blockquote>


Can you explain to me the relevance of the US dollar? Does importing/exporting have a big influence on the price of houses? Or are those rich foreigners buying in Irvine again?
 
[quote author="ndiddy" date=1217279834]it's going to be more like 25%+ just by numbers. average family income in irvine is 85k. full docs that'll qualify you for mid upper 3s for the avg property.</blockquote>


But what is an average Irvine property?
 
I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


You need to peak again....most of the broker jobs have gone bye-bye. We are left with tech... Don't get me wrong, prices will continue to settle...but as far as Sac being as nice as Irvine...lol. Sac prices have always been half/ one quarter the price of San Diego, OC, LA, SF, Napa...
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


Sounds like your best move is to stay up in Sacto, Jeff. Like was said, nobody here makes over $85k a year, and I'm pretty sure the people who say they make $85k a year are lying, because there are no jobs here anyway. I don't even know why I get out of bed in the morning. Irvine is such a depressing place. I'm pretty sure that by 2015 they will have plowed it over and it will be strawberry fields forever again.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217897667][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


Sounds like your best move is to stay up in Sacto, Jeff. Like was said, nobody here makes over $85k a year, and I'm pretty sure the people who say they make $85k a year are lying, because there are no jobs here anyway. I don't even know why I get out of bed in the morning. Irvine is such a depressing place. I'm pretty sure that by 2015 they will have plowed it over and it will be strawberry fields forever again.</blockquote>


Way to misinterpret his post. Constructive analysis too.
 
[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1217890257][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


You need to peak again....most of the broker jobs have gone bye-bye. We are left with tech... Don't get me wrong, prices will continue to settle...but as far as Sac being as nice as Irvine...lol. Sac prices have always been half/ one quarter the price of San Diego, OC, LA, SF, Napa...</blockquote>


Uh, yeah. Tell me again what are the major tech firms besides BRCM HQd in OC? OC is dominated by RE and Financial services. also lots of light mfg. A minute portion of the OC economy is high tech. As for Sacto, it is NOT Bay area. That is an ugly commute, like Temecula to Irvine.



The recent Digital City survey showed SJC as the #1 paying area, with the avg tech worker making $140K. Santa Clara County I believe recently surpassed New York as the county with the highest avg weekly wage in the US. OC is MUCH closer to Sacto from a high tech job market perspective, as they are both tech backwaters.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1217932135]

Way to misinterpret his post. Constructive analysis too.</blockquote>
Uh, there was a bit of sarcasm in my comments.



I get tired of reading comments from our far flung posters (see B2B above as another example) who continually need to come to the forums and the main blog to tell me how there are no jobs in OC, and that nobody can possibly make more than $85k in OC because all we have is a real estate/service industry economy. That is a load of crap (as I know very well), but since many on the IHB are devoted to crapping all over OC and portraying it as being inhabited by a bunch of immoral, uneducated degenerates living off HELOC money, I figure I will give them what they are looking for. Maybe if I help them talk OC down they will decide to stay up there. Less people here is ok by me.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217935323][quote author="PadreBrian" date=1217890257][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


You need to peak again....most of the broker jobs have gone bye-bye. We are left with tech... Don't get me wrong, prices will continue to settle...but as far as Sac being as nice as Irvine...lol. Sac prices have always been half/ one quarter the price of San Diego, OC, LA, SF, Napa...</blockquote>


Uh, yeah. Tell me again what are the major tech firms besides BRCM HQd in OC? OC is dominated by RE and Financial services. also lots of light mfg. A minute portion of the OC economy is high tech. As for Sacto, it is NOT Bay area. That is an ugly commute, like Temecula to Irvine.



The recent Digital City survey showed SJC as the #1 paying area, with the avg tech worker making $140K. Santa Clara County I believe recently surpassed New York as the county with the highest avg weekly wage in the US. OC is MUCH closer to Sacto from a high tech job market perspective, as they are both tech backwaters.</blockquote>


Let's see here...we have Emulex, Imgram Micro, Microsemi...shall I go on? Here are a bunch of small and mid sized tech companies in OC and that's just from my knowledge of the client list from my days at PricewaterCoopers. Don't get me wrong, OC has a crap load of RE, fiancial service, and banking jobs but the job market is more diversified than you may think.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217940622][quote author="Roo" date=1217932135]

Way to misinterpret his post. Constructive analysis too.</blockquote>
Uh, there was a bit of sarcasm in my comments.



I get tired of reading comments from our far flung posters (see B2B above as another example) who continually need to come to the forums and the main blog to tell me how there are no jobs in OC, and that nobody can possibly make more than $85k in OC because all we have is a real estate/service industry economy. That is a load of crap (as I know very well), but since many on the IHB are devoted to crapping all over OC and portraying it as being inhabited by a bunch of immoral, uneducated degenerates living off HELOC money, I figure I will give them what they are looking for. Maybe if I help them talk OC down they will decide to stay up there. Less people here is ok by me.</blockquote>


Quote some stats to refute the argument that Irvine housing is WAY overpriced for the job market? That's all that is being debated here. And FYI I wish that someone had clued me in to the economic disparity between OC and SV 15 years ago. I had no clue until I moved here. If you have a degree in EE or CE/CS you will make much much more working up here, and be exposed to many more career options. That is a fact.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1217940820][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217935323][quote author="PadreBrian" date=1217890257][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


You need to peak again....most of the broker jobs have gone bye-bye. We are left with tech... Don't get me wrong, prices will continue to settle...but as far as Sac being as nice as Irvine...lol. Sac prices have always been half/ one quarter the price of San Diego, OC, LA, SF, Napa...</blockquote>


Uh, yeah. Tell me again what are the major tech firms besides BRCM HQd in OC? OC is dominated by RE and Financial services. also lots of light mfg. A minute portion of the OC economy is high tech. As for Sacto, it is NOT Bay area. That is an ugly commute, like Temecula to Irvine.



The recent Digital City survey showed SJC as the #1 paying area, with the avg tech worker making $140K. Santa Clara County I believe recently surpassed New York as the county with the highest avg weekly wage in the US. OC is MUCH closer to Sacto from a high tech job market perspective, as they are both tech backwaters.</blockquote>


Let's see here...we have Emulex, Imgram Micro, Microsemi...shall I go on? Here are a bunch of small and mid sized tech companies in OC and that's just from my knowledge of the client list from my days at PricewaterCoopers. Don't get me wrong, OC has a crap load of RE, fiancial service, and banking jobs but the job market is more diversified than you may think.</blockquote>


A small storage player, a distributor and a $500M/yr analog chip firm. Not exactly HP, Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple, Yahoo, eBay, Sun, Xilinx, Cadence, Applied Materials, Chevron, AMD, Juniper, Oracle, Adobe etc et etc. Kind of proves my point.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217941078]

Quote some stats to refute the argument that Irvine housing is WAY overpriced for the job market? That's all that is being debated here. And FYI I wish that someone had clued me in to the economic disparity between OC and SV 15 years ago. I had no clue until I moved here. If you have a degree in EE or CE/CS you will make much much more working up here, and be exposed to many more career options. That is a fact.</blockquote>


Of course Irvine is overpriced, nobody is arguing that. But to portray it like we are heading the way of Fresno or something because we have no economy is a joke.



Besides, if I were a tech guy like you in Silly Valley, I'd would be more concerned with the next H1B Visa flight landing to import dudes from Bangalore to take my job than I would be the Irvine housing market.



Excuse me now. My low income OC job that keeps me busy from 8am past 11pm is calling...
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217941604][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1217940820][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217935323][quote author="PadreBrian" date=1217890257][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


You need to peak again....most of the broker jobs have gone bye-bye. We are left with tech... Don't get me wrong, prices will continue to settle...but as far as Sac being as nice as Irvine...lol. Sac prices have always been half/ one quarter the price of San Diego, OC, LA, SF, Napa...</blockquote>


Uh, yeah. Tell me again what are the major tech firms besides BRCM HQd in OC? OC is dominated by RE and Financial services. also lots of light mfg. A minute portion of the OC economy is high tech. As for Sacto, it is NOT Bay area. That is an ugly commute, like Temecula to Irvine.



The recent Digital City survey showed SJC as the #1 paying area, with the avg tech worker making $140K. Santa Clara County I believe recently surpassed New York as the county with the highest avg weekly wage in the US. OC is MUCH closer to Sacto from a high tech job market perspective, as they are both tech backwaters.</blockquote>


Let's see here...we have Emulex, Imgram Micro, Microsemi...shall I go on? Here are a bunch of small and mid sized tech companies in OC and that's just from my knowledge of the client list from my days at PricewaterCoopers. Don't get me wrong, OC has a crap load of RE, fiancial service, and banking jobs but the job market is more diversified than you may think.</blockquote>


A small storage player, a distributor and a $500M/yr analog chip firm. Not exactly HP, Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple, Yahoo, eBay, Sun, Xilinx, Cadence, Applied Materials, Chevron, AMD, Juniper, Oracle, Adobe etc et etc. Kind of proves my point.</blockquote>
As I stated, there aren't huge tech firms like Intel or Cisco that are headquartered out here but they do have a local presence. Like I said, there are a local of mid and small sized tech firms based out of OC. The Bay area is the capital of tech land, is and always will be.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1217942375][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217941604][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1217940820][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217935323][quote author="PadreBrian" date=1217890257][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217859340]I spent a week in the Irvine this past week looking at real estate. One conclusion: Way way over priced. There?s just no other way to put it. I can see priced in the SF area are high because there are actually good paying tech jobs. And if you don't like the one you have, just jump next door and get a 20% raise without trying very hard. You don't have that in Irvine. Most of the jobs are tied to real estate. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. And if you look at places like nicer areas of Sacramento, Irvine is 2-3 times those numbers even though median income is very similar. I think the splay Chris Thornberg is talking about will be very loud in Irvine, so put your ear muffs on.</blockquote>


You need to peak again....most of the broker jobs have gone bye-bye. We are left with tech... Don't get me wrong, prices will continue to settle...but as far as Sac being as nice as Irvine...lol. Sac prices have always been half/ one quarter the price of San Diego, OC, LA, SF, Napa...</blockquote>


Uh, yeah. Tell me again what are the major tech firms besides BRCM HQd in OC? OC is dominated by RE and Financial services. also lots of light mfg. A minute portion of the OC economy is high tech. As for Sacto, it is NOT Bay area. That is an ugly commute, like Temecula to Irvine.



The recent Digital City survey showed SJC as the #1 paying area, with the avg tech worker making $140K. Santa Clara County I believe recently surpassed New York as the county with the highest avg weekly wage in the US. OC is MUCH closer to Sacto from a high tech job market perspective, as they are both tech backwaters.</blockquote>


Let's see here...we have Emulex, Imgram Micro, Microsemi...shall I go on? Here are a bunch of small and mid sized tech companies in OC and that's just from my knowledge of the client list from my days at PricewaterCoopers. Don't get me wrong, OC has a crap load of RE, fiancial service, and banking jobs but the job market is more diversified than you may think.</blockquote>


A small storage player, a distributor and a $500M/yr analog chip firm. Not exactly HP, Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple, Yahoo, eBay, Sun, Xilinx, Cadence, Applied Materials, Chevron, AMD, Juniper, Oracle, Adobe etc et etc. Kind of proves my point.</blockquote>
As I stated, there aren't huge tech firms like Intel or Cisco that are headquartered out here but they do have a local presence. Like I said, there are a local of mid and small sized tech firms based out of OC. The Bay area is the capital of tech land, is and always will be.</blockquote>


The Bay area used to be proportional with OC, however with Irvine showing the stickiness on the way down compared to South OC I would say Irvine is more overpriced relative to income right now than the Bay area. And regarding local tech presence, we have a presence there. Tech jobs exist but the supply/demand of jobs/qualified applicants is steady state in OC compared to up here, where we have tons of unfilled skilled openings in SV. Don't believe the hype.
 
Cisco actually has a huge office here in Irvine. Blizzard is HQed here and employs a *lot* of tech folks. Microsoft, IBM, Verizon, Intel, and Google all have offices in Irvine that employ programmers and other high tech jobs.
 
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