Health care is so much fun.
Let's play death panel.
First question. Annually roughly 2 people over 65 years of age get an intestine transplant. The death rate is 20% the first year, 50% by the fifth year.
The per person, per month (PMPM) costs of paying for the transplants is 1 cent (slightly under), basically 1 dime, per person per year that's just for the 30 days up to and the 180 days following the procedure). 10 cents. For every single man, woman and child in the country.
In 2011 there were 72 intestine transplants in people under 65 years of age. PMPM is roughly 3 cents. Their death rate is still the average 20% first year, 50% by year five.
Combined, to treat those 74 people, of which, roughly 15 are going to die the first year is just under $90 million and about 29 cents per person for every single person in the USA.
Should we pay or not? Should we pay for the under 65 group only?
Heart transplants fair much better, their five year survival is 72%. They're one year survival is 88%. They're also about 30% cheaper per procedure. Unfortunately, they have about 30X the number of procedures.
PMPM costs for heart transplants is 57 cents. $6.84/yr for every person, whether one day old or 112 years old. Your family of four, cut a check for $25.
Isn't it fun playing real world survivor?
Next up, heart lung transplant combo. 30 people in 2011. Average cost $1.25 million. PMPM costs, 1 cent, 12 cents a year. Only 1/3rd will die in the first year following transplant and by year five, 2/3rds have died.
Yes, you've said yes to all three, annual costs are only $7.25 per year, for every person in your house it's a pittance right?
Don't worry, there's a lot of different transplants to work through. Kidney-heart is a good one. There were 66 of them in 2011. Cost is roughly $1.3 million per procedure. Only 28 cents per year per person to do them.
Bone marrow transplants? We do a lot of them. Five year death rate is roughly 50%.
Autogeneic bone marrow transplants cost roughly $805K. With 6500 procedures a year it's $18/per person for every man, woman and child in the USA. Your family of four is just short of $80/year.
Autologous bone marrow transplants are much cheaper at $363K. With 13,000 procedures a year, it's $15.60/per person a year.
Your running total for saying yes is $40.91 for each person in your household and we haven't gotten to the common stuff yet.
Like pregnancy, we have a 4.5% c-section rate. No biggy. Average pregnancy delivery costs are $18K for the insurers with another $3400 out of pocket by the parents, and $28K for a c-section.
In 2008, we have 4.28 million births. For simplicity sake let's assume 1 pregnancy, 1 birth so we don't have to address the 2 million non-births.
PMPM cost of pregnancy is roughly $20. That's $256 per person a year in your household. That family of four bill is getting steep, it's pushing $1200.
Now, back to death panel. COPD. We have emergency room visits, simple admissions, complex admissions and intensive care admissions.
Let's just look at intensive care admissions, they have 1/3rd fatality rate, readmission rate in 30-60 days is 15%. Average cost $45K per admission. There's roughly 8500 admissions a year. 1/3 rd die before they get out. That's $1.25 year for every person in the US. There's ~490,000 more COPD admissions a year, they're not as expensive, but the volume makes up for it. In complex admissions, only 10% die, they add $2.80 per year to every person bill. The simple admission rarely die, but they add $10.50 a year to every person's bill. Those ER visits, they're not bad they average about $0.30/year.
Shall we keep playing? It's death of a thousand cuts. We're at $1250/yr for a family of four and we've covered birth delivery cost and about 50,000 out of 308,000,000 people's conditions
We haven't hit pneumonia yet, primarly fatal in the 65+ crowd with the majority of the bill coming from the 65+ crowd.
Heart stints? Angioplasty? Crutchfield-Jakobs disease?
Want to check numbers?
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_07.pdfhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20869226http://publications.milliman.com/research/health-rr/pdfs/2011-us-organ-tissue.pdf