"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="graphrix" date=1251556030][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251553084]Whenever you want to send it over



P.S. I'm already living with the rents. Your 4900+ posts have nothing on me...</blockquote>


You have a PM with a spreadsheet of all the REOs in 92656 going back to 8/1/08. It is tedious to go through it, but I am sure they taught you right click to copy and paste at SC to save you some time. Yes, many have sold to another buyer, but there are plenty that are just sitting there. Keep in mind that is probably not all the REOs that have happened, and many never make it to the market for whatever reason because FR doesn't have all the data.



BTW, I feel weird posting all this crap on a Friday night, but at least I have an excuse... my girl is hanging out at a friend's house. What is yours? It's a Friday night, you're 26, live in OC, went to SC, are a hot up and coming RE agent at well known coastal office, and judging by your crappy photos <strong>you are not as ugly as trojanman</strong>... why are you not out getting laid, instead of wasting your time debating us old fuddy duddies about shadow inventory? Yeah... you will learn a lot here, but dude... go have some fun. Where is tenmagnet when you need him to really bag on someone from his alma mater?</blockquote>
You forgot old and not as cranky as Graph. haha Yeah, I'll admit I have no life on Friday nights....especially when I have to be up at 7am to get to my CPA review classes that begin at 8am. Man, I could use the day to be a few more hours. Good to see you are taking the rookie under your wing Graph, you might make him a super agent one day after all. GO TROJANS! Oh yeah, where's that damn ten bastid???
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1251556030][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251553084]Whenever you want to send it over



P.S. I'm already living with the rents. Your 4900+ posts have nothing on me...</blockquote>


You have a PM with a spreadsheet of all the REOs in 92656 going back to 8/1/08. It is tedious to go through it, but I am sure they taught you right click to copy and paste at SC to save you some time. Yes, many have sold to another buyer, but there are plenty that are just sitting there. Keep in mind that is probably not all the REOs that have happened, and many never make it to the market for whatever reason because FR doesn't have all the data.



BTW, I feel weird posting all this crap on a Friday night, but at least I have an excuse... my girl is hanging out at a friend's house. What is yours? It's a Friday night, you're 26, live in OC, went to SC, are a hot up and coming RE agent at well known coastal office, and judging by your crappy photos you are not as ugly as trojanman... why are you not out getting laid, instead of wasting your time debating us old fuddy duddies about shadow inventory? Yeah... you will learn a lot here, but dude... go have some fun. Where is tenmagnet when you need him to really bag on someone from his alma mater?</blockquote>


Haha, gf is working (nanny) and I have work this morning so I got over it. Sounds like a slow night in newport anyways... or at least, that's what i'm telling myself.
 
Focus Graphrix, focus! The experiment just proved (if I followed that right) that 37 out of the 125 were quickly found. I may be old, but that's what I recall predicting. How that got to be an "L" for me and a "W" for you is.......well, it didn't. On your new chart with the NTSs: more of the same. If half, or even two-thirds get foreclosed on, that will mean 4-6k coming. They will happen over months and that will equate to the current foreclosure rate. Funny you brought up Matt Padilla, because he disproves your whole argument right here:



"Well, not on an annual basis and in percentage terms, according to First American CoreLogic (the data tracker didn?t provide actual totals). In February, real estate-owned properties (REOs) totaled 0.8% of all outstanding mortgage loans in Orange County, up from 0.6% a year earlier but down from 0.9% in January. Not a huge year-over-year change, but it suggests the total inventory of unsold foreclosures is flat or increasing."



http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/04/01/banks-holding-more-oc-foreclosures/8583/



You can argue about how many loans .08% is, but it is only 25% higher than a full year ago and still less than 1/10th of 1% of Orange County loans.



I'm still waiting to see you prove your brilliance. You can do it!
 
"you?re not disproving this brain-thrust (spelled correctly this time for you) are you now when more and more and more and more and more and more factual data comes out proving you are just full of? well? Kool-Aid filled air. ROFL! Dopes!"



"brain-thrust"



"are you now when"



How about:



brain trust;



are you, now;



and: questions are ended with a question mark



I could barely read that mangled mess!
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251583832]"you?re not disproving this brain-thrust (spelled correctly this time for you) are you now when more and more and more and more and more and more factual data comes out proving you are just full of? well? Kool-Aid filled air. ROFL! Dopes!"



"brain-thrust"



"are you now when"



How about:



brain trust;



are you, now;



and: questions are ended with a question mark



I could barely read that mangled mess!</blockquote>


Never mind, you are no longer worth my time. You are just like all the other pig headed bulls I have dealt with for the past three years. You don't listen, all you do is throw insults out there, and you NEVER provide the stats to back up your opinion. It's cool, because time will prove who is correct. Like how in 07 it proved that my predictions were correct from 06, and 08 proved my predictions in 07 were correct, and in 09 when most of my predictions from 08 were correct... I am confident that what I say about 2010 and 2011 will be correct as well. But... who knows, I could be wrong, or maybe not pessimistic enough like I was in 06 and 07, but I will be right more than I am wrong.



BTW, thanks for the grammar lesson. For once you have provided the forums with something that is actually useful.
 
I can already tell where there is going to be a problem. If I use a list that is 8/1/2009 or newer then most of the properties owned by larger corporations, BofA JPM etc.., will not be listed. It takes, on average, anywhere between 1-2 months for properties to be assigned and listed. I'm not saying they can't do it faster, I'm just pointing out what I've seen from what has been listed. Smaller lenders usually list the properties anywhere from 1 day to 2 weeks.



I actually spoke with a friend of mine today that works the REO for a big group and he was telling me that banks are having to pay 2,3,5, and even $7K to bride the occupant to leave. He said they used to just bring the sheriff and a locksmith on the day the bank took the property and kick the occupant out and give them 30 days to schedule an appointment to get their belongings back. But, new regulations prohibit this now because they feel it's unfair to homeowners. They can have up to 30-90 days after the bank takes it back to vacate.



So what I'm saying is, give me a list of REOs from 6/1/2009 to 6/30/2009, and I'll see if I can account for all of them.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1251499543][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251499340]Active, backup offers accepted, hold, pending sale and closed in August.</blockquote>
No promises, but I think I can show accurately if REOs are going to contract quickly or if there is indeed many REOs neither in contract or listed and just being held by the bank for whatever reason.</blockquote>
There are 70 REOs shown by Foreclosure Radar in the zip code 92656, that being a zip code in Aliso Viejo that Mr. Larsen chose for our experiment.

Of those 70 REOS;

5 are showing as "Active" on the MLS

3 are showing as "Back Up Offers" on the MLS

1 is showing as "Hold Do Not Show" on the MLS

12 are showing as "Pending" on the MLS

and 5 are showing as "Sold" on the MLS

which means

that of the 70 showing on FR, 44 are "shadow inventory".

This is REOs only, not NTSes which is whole other "shadow inventory" in dispute.

It would seem that NewportSkipper's assertion that "<em>Would it not be reasonable to assume 2.5 x 15, or 37 REO homes are in escrow as well?</em>", although maybe reasonable to some, is a false assumption. In actuality, only 15 are in escrow, less than half of NewportSkipper's reasonable assumption.

And further,

NewportSkipper's assertion that, "REOs go into contract in days, you would never expect to see them in Redfin or other websites like theirs", is also baseless and a fabrication based on fantasy or intentional misleadings. REOs actually sit in bank inventory for a month or two or three or longer, and only go into contract quickly, once listed, and they do show up on Redfin within 24 hours or less of being listed.

Interestingly, about the only thing NewportSkipper got correct was that there are a few REOs which show up as

Active - 1

Back Up Offers - 1

and Pending - 5

on the MLS and are not showing on Foreclosure Radar, but quite to the opposite of NSes "calculations", this inventory when compared to the total inventory would indicate a possible 14 more REOs as "shadow inventory".





To be clear, I have given no reasons in the above analysis as to the reasons for the banks carrying shadow inventory to listed inventory at a 2:1 ratio. I am highly suspicious of conspiracy theories and think the reasonable and logical explanation is the banks are continuing in the previous behaviors of postponing losses as long as possible so as to keep from "realizing" losses and therefore finding it necessary to improve their depleted capital reserve ratios. And they probably are still trying to find staff to process an overwhelming number of foreclosures.







Will the shadow inventory of REOs influence home prices in a downward direction? Well, it sure as heck ain't gonna push prices up. As neither will the postponement of NTSes toward their inevitable auction.



Thank you IrvineRealtor.

There are a few realtors who would rather know the truth than make more sales based on assumed and false information.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1251614289][quote author="awgee" date=1251499543][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251499340]Active, backup offers accepted, hold, pending sale and closed in August.</blockquote>
No promises, but I think I can show accurately if REOs are going to contract quickly or if there is indeed many REOs neither in contract or listed and just being held by the bank for whatever reason.</blockquote>
There are 70 REOs shown by Foreclosure Radar in the zip code 92656, that being a zip code in Aliso Viejo that Mr. Larsen chose for our experiment.

Of those 70 REOS;

5 are showing as "Active" on the MLS

3 are showing as "Back Up Offers" on the MLS

1 is showing as "Hold Do Not Show" on the MLS

12 are showing as "Pending" on the MLS

and 5 are showing as "Sold" on the MLS

which means

that of the 70 showing on FR, 44 are "shadow inventory".

This is REOs only, not NTSes which is whole other "shadow inventory" in dispute.

It would seem that NewportSkipper's assertion that "<em>Would it not be reasonable to assume 2.5 x 15, or 37 REO homes are in escrow as well?</em>", although maybe reasonable to some, is a false assumption. In actuality, only 15 are in escrow, less than half of NewportSkipper's reasonable assumption.

And further,

NewportSkipper's assertion that, "REOs go into contract in days, you would never expect to see them in Redfin or other websites like theirs", is also baseless and a fabrication based on fantasy or intentional misleadings. REOs actually sit in bank inventory for a month or two or three or longer, and only go into contract quickly, once listed, and they do show up on Redfin within 24 hours or less of being listed.

Interestingly, about the only thing NewportSkipper got correct was that there are a few REOs which show up as

Active - 1

Back Up Offers - 1

and Pending - 5

on the MLS and are not showing on Foreclosure Radar, but quite to the opposite of NSes "calculations", this inventory when compared to the total inventory would indicate a possible 14 more REOs as "shadow inventory".





To be clear, I have given no reasons in the above analysis as to the reasons for the banks carrying shadow inventory to listed inventory at a 2:1 ratio. I am highly suspicious of conspiracy theories and think the reasonable and logical explanation is the banks are continuing in the previous behaviors of postponing losses as long as possible so as to keep from "realizing" losses and therefore finding it necessary to improve their depleted capital reserve ratios. And they probably are still trying to find staff to process an overwhelming number of foreclosures.







Will the shadow inventory of REOs influence home prices in a downward direction? Well, it sure as heck ain't gonna push prices up. As neither will the postponement of NTSes toward their inevitable auction.



Thank you IrvineRealtor.

There are a few realtors who would rather know the truth than make more sales based on assumed and false information.</blockquote>


Awgee can I get that list? I would much rather work with 70 than 188...
 
Awgee, it took me one call and 2 minutes to have this emailed to me:



REO Listings in Aliso Viejo



4 Active

5 Backup

1 Hold

16 Pending

9 Sold in August



Sat, Aug 29, 2009 07:09 PM RES MLS No. Status P V H T Q Type A/D Address City Area Zip TGNO Trct/M Bd B t/f Sty Gar SqFt Yr Blt Price DOM

1 MRM-I09092863 A 1 H T Q CONDO A 23382 VIA SAN MARTINE AV AV 92656 921E1 / 3 2/2 1 2 D 1,246 1971 $230,000 3

2 P700974 A 16 H T Q CONDO A 15 Tulare Dr AV AV 92656 921D5 CAMD/C 3 3/2 3 2 A 1,390 2001 $339,900 2

3 S583834 A 10 H T Q CONDO A 11 Pappagallo Pt AV AV 92656 921E4 WDW/0 2 2/2 1 2 A 1,300 1989 $345,500 20

4 S586390 A 8 H T Q CONDO A 3 Camomile Pl AV av 92656 921E5 WFL/C 3 3/2 2 2 1,330 1990 $399,500 9

5 S583061 B 6 H T Q CONDO A 23412 Pacific Park Dr 34f AV AV 92656 921E6 CANV/C 2 2/2 1 1 D 1,140 1984 $289,900 37

6 MRM-K09073420 B 12 H T Q CONDO A 153 SANDCASTLE AV AV 92656 921E6 / 2 2/2 2 1 A 1,162 $297,000 3

7 S584877 B 10 H T Q CONDO A 33 Trofello Ln AV AV 92656 921D7 MILA/0 2 3/1 2 2 A 1,150 1998 $321,750 22

8 S577650 B 6 H T Q CONDO A 15 Benchmark Ln AV AV 92656 921D4 CAMD/C 3 3/2 3 2 1,390 2002 $324,900 80

9 S585421 B 11 H T Q SFR D 63 Endless Vis AV AV 92656 921C7 OAKV/D 5 5/4 2 2 A 3,300 2001 $796,950 10

10 S585718 H 4 H T Q CONDO A 22 Candlewood Ln 8 AV av 92656 921F5 MST/1 2 2/1 2 0 1,000 1985 $227,000 5

11 S585087 P 7 H T Q SFR A 23374 El Reposa 200 AV AV 92656 921E1 NW/X 3 2/2 1 2 D 1,246 1971 $212,000 2

12 S583383 P 8 H T Q CONDO A 4 Glenoaks 10 AV AV 92656 921E3 GV/2 2 2/1 1 1 1,000 1987 $228,000 4

13 F1812745 P 1 H T Q CONDO A 140 Birchwood Ln AV AV 92656 921G6 MST/1 3 3/1 2 0 1,174 1981 $256,500 7

14 S546652 P 10 H T Q CONDO A 95 Dogwood Ln 152 AV AV 92656 921F6 MOR/A 3 2/1 2 0 1,163 1985 $260,000 122

15 S586047 P 6 H T Q CONDO A 22681 Oakgrove 422 AV AV 92656 921D6 CYNP/- 2 2/1 1 0 1,100 1998 $287,000 8

16 S584599 P 7 H T Q CONDO A 2 Southwind AV AV 92656 921E4 WS/0 3 3/2 2 2 A 1,479 1992 $292,000 15

17 U9003609 P 14 H T Q CONDO A 23412 Pacific Park Dr 21a AV AV 92656 921E6 CANV/E 2 2/2 1 1 D 1,089 1991 $308,460 9

18 S581264 P 5 H T Q CONDO A 85 Montara Dr AV AV 92656 921E3 STP/a 2 2/1 2 1 A 1,067 1989 $309,520 11

19 U9002817 P 1 H T Q CONDO A 26 Silveroak AV AV 92656 921E3 OTHR/% 3 3/2 2 2 1,400 1988 $359,000 11

20 MRM-K09087218 P 1 H T Q CONDO A 136 MAYFAIR AV AV 92656 921E5 / 3 3/2 2 2 A 1,729 1991 $365,000 1

21 S586542 P 7 H T Q SFR D 13 Catalina Islands St AV AV 92656 921F4 CRE/B 3 3/2 2 2 1,301 1989 $370,000 4

22 S585725 P 8 H T Q CONDO D 35 Rue Du Chateau 30 AV AV 92656 921D7 SOLE/X 3 3/2 2 2 1,234 2000 $402,000 6

23 S584415 P 6 H T Q CONDO D 32 Nantucket Ln AV AV 92656 921D5 TWPK/u 3 3/2 2 2 1,609 2000 $449,900 24

24 S583365 P 20 H T Q SFR D 25 Scrub Oak AV AV 92656 921B4 VSRG/E 4 3/2 S 3 A 2,400 1996 $599,900 5

25 S582053 P 16 H T Q SFR D 42 Deerwood AV AV 92656 921C4 CRM/C 3 3/3 2 3 A 2,106 1995 $609,900 13

26 S574105 P 3 H T Q SFR D 24 Lyon Rdg AV AV 92656 951E1 LYNR/0 5 3/3 2 3 2,802 1998 $672,500 60 *

27 U9003185 S 1 H T Q CONDO A 175 Cinnamon Teal AV AV 92656 921B2 OTHR/% 2 2/2 2 1 D 1,011 1990 $240,000 14

28 S572385 S 4 H T Q CONDO A 65 Tradewinds AV AV 92656 921E4 WS/C 3 3/2 2 2 A 1,368 1992 $360,000 44

29 F1813032 S 1 H T Q CONDO A 34 Sandcastle AV AV 92656 921E7 VS/1 3 2/2 2 2 1,317 1990 $370,000 16

30 MRM-T09061186 S 4 H T Q CONDO D 2 KIRRA Ct AV AV 92656 921C6 / 3 2/2 2 2 A 1,500 1996 $416,000 12

31 S581332 S 13 H T Q CONDO A 81 Tortuga Cay 167 AV AV 92656 0921E4 WDW/D 3 3/2 2 2 1,850 1993 $420,000 6

32 S577378 S 16 H T Q SFR D 18 Santa Clara St AV AV 92656 921F4 CRE/1 2 2/1 2 2 1,301 1989 $400,000 20

33 Y903077 S 6 H T Q CONDO D 52 Las Flores AV AV 92656 951E1 OTHR/0 3 3/2 2 2 A 1,355 1998 $410,000 8

34 P689642 S 1 H T Q SFR D 17 Amber AV AV 92656 921E2 GT/4 4 3/2 2 2 A 1,963 1986 $545,000 23

35 S565764 S 4 H T Q SFR D 12 Durango Ct AV AV 92656 921C6 SILO/* 5 6/5 2 3 A 3,950 2001 $945,000 102 *



That's 35 REOs accounted for.



You should pretend to be more humble. Your bad attitude isn't working for you.
 
"that of the 70 showing on FR, 44 are ?shadow inventory"



So even if we use your numbers, shadow inventory is equal to two month's sales? Isn't that what Geotpf and Robert and I have been saying? A two month supply isn't going to change anything. I guess I miss your point.



"NewportSkipper?s assertion that, ?REOs go into contract in days, you would never expect to see them in Redfin or other websites like theirs?, is also baseless and a fabrication based on fantasy or intentional misleadings. REOs actually sit in bank inventory for a month or two or three or longer, and only go into contract quickly, once listed, and they do show up on Redfin within 24 hours or less of being listed."



Whoa! You really don't understand, do you? Let me clarify: REOs go into contract within days of being listed, not days of becoming REO. This is so basic that I didn't think it needed an explanation. It would be stupid of me to suggest they are not on Redfin before they are listed, now wouldn't it? At any given time that you look at Redfin, you will not see many REOs because....as I said: they go into different status quickly.



You really don't have a clue what you are talking about. You should be ashamed of your bad attitude and complete lack of manners.



(After seeing your disgusting comments on Ted Kennedy, I guess this lack of class is your own personal albatross)
 
Graphrix, Graphrix, Graphrix, you did not let me down. That's one cringe-worthy post you put up there! For real? You sound like a 14 year old with a narcissistic personality disorder. You put me down as not adding value when what I added had three times the sophistication of your hopelessly shallow "there's your shadow inventory, bitches" analysis? Are you for real? All you've done is prove your complete inability to stay on topic. So, you have a lifetime "Get out of jail free" card because you saw the bubble? What the hell are you "right" about anyway? This is a thread that you added no value whatsover to.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251623562]Awgee, it took me one call and 2 minutes to have this emailed to me:



REO Listings in Aliso Viejo



4 Active

5 Backup

1 Hold

16 Pending

<b>9 Sold in August</b>

<snip>

That's 35 REOs accounted for.



You should pretend to be more humble. Your bad attitude isn't working for you.</blockquote>






Key word <b>sold</b>.



Shadow 44/9 sold = 4.9 months supply. Pending isn't sold in one month. Pending may be 'bought', but they are 'sold' when the deal closes and it only counts once. Just like eventually most if not all of those 16 pendings will be sold.



It's looking a lot like 4 months of shadow existing REO inventory at current sale rates.



How many foreclosures will occur in the next 4 months?



How many went REO so far in August? 14. How many previous REOs sold in August? 9.



So far in August the Banks took back 55% more homes than they sold.



How many Auctions are scheduled for the one remaining day in August? 10. Originally 20, but 9 have already been postponed until September.



Which is going to be greater? The number of previous bank REOs that close in August or the number of homes the banks take back as REOs in foreclosure?



Currently, in September, there are 144 Auctions listed. As long as we have a 90% postponement rate, things won't get too out of control. There are 175 Auctions scheduled in total.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1251629900]

Key word <b>sold</b>. </blockquote>


I agree.



<img src="http://plasteredpoets.com/images/coffee-is-for-closers2.gif" alt="" />



You can't spend booked or pending or whatever sales. Only closes matter.



<blockquote>Currently, in September, there are 144 Auctions listed. As long as we have a 90% postponement rate, things won't get too out of control. There are 175 Auctions scheduled in total.</blockquote>


And we are all expecting them to be delayed, what, forever?
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251624986]Graphrix, Graphrix, Graphrix, you did not let me down. That's one cringe-worthy post you put up there! For real? You sound like a 14 year old with a narcissistic personality disorder. You put me down as not adding value when what I added had three times the sophistication of your hopelessly shallow "there's your shadow inventory, bitches" analysis? Are you for real? All you've done is prove your complete inability to stay on topic. So, you have a lifetime "Get out of jail free" card because you saw the bubble? What the hell are you "right" about anyway? This is a thread that you added no value whatsover to.</blockquote>


Right... like I said, another pigheaded bull who just hurls insults. You will look like the fool you are, just like you did in 2006 when you said prices will never come down, and a fool like when you said in 2007 that prices will only come down a little and it is contained to subprime. I could go on and on, but you will just change your screen name again next year, and call another bottom then.



I posted the shadow inventory stats, you said they were wrong... I asked for the stats to prove that I am wrong... still waiting. Bulls like you are so predictable... you are wrong graph... my stats tell me so... but I will never show the stats to back my opinion up because I don't have to. Blah Blah. Same thing over and over again. My shadow inventory numbers are right, and you are wrong until you actually post the numbers that prove that I am wrong. Now go back to being a used house salesmen, and try to sell a house to a knife catcher.



You have posted nothing but words, therefore you have added no value at all... ever. You are just a babbling bull with no context and can only hurl insults to make you feel better that you are underwater by 30%-40% on your home.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251624986]Graphrix, Graphrix, Graphrix, you did not let me down. That's one cringe-worthy post you put up there! For real? You sound like a 14 year old with a narcissistic personality disorder. You put me down as not adding value when what I added had three times the sophistication of your hopelessly shallow "there's your shadow inventory, bitches" analysis? Are you for real? All you've done is prove your complete inability to stay on topic. So, you have a lifetime "Get out of jail free" card because you saw the bubble? What the hell are you "right" about anyway? This is a thread that you added no value whatsover to.</blockquote>


Do I need to point out how obnoxious your statements are? Do you already know you are being inflammatory and you chose to do it anyway? Do you win many arguments that way?



You are calling out people who have been active on this forum for over two years and who have over 4,000 comments each. Do you think you are the first person who has come in here to tell all of us we are wrong? Ever since this board has existed, we have been saying prices will drop, and we have been consistently right. People who have come in here and told us we are crazy have been consistently wrong. It is what it is.



You seem to have a need to "win" the argument here. You can't, and neither can Graphrix. The only winners and losers in this debate are those who act on their opinions about the market. So far, everyone who has come in here being bullish has been made a loser by the market. Everyone who has decided to rent has saved significant equity; they are winners.



I have watched many people present information and good arguments on boards like this one. From experience I can tell you that the more condescending you become, the less people will listen to you. Your posts are condescending (and so are Graphrix's at times). As long as you are <em>not </em>calling names or making strongly negative characterizations, we will not ban you (this is borderline: "You sound like a 14 year old with a narcissistic personality disorder.") Most will chose to ignore you until you add something substantive.



If you want to join the community and participate in the conversation, you are welcome. If you want to talk smack and tell us how stupid we are, you will not find too many people willing to engage in that conversation for very long; you will be ignored. The choice is yours.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1251634905]Right... like I said, another pigheaded bull who just hurls insults.

</blockquote>


Pot. See kettle.

<blockquote>

You will look like the fool you are, </blockquote>


You know better...
 
You are right, Irvinerenter. I guess I was just getting irratated at watching the rude comments to Geotpf and Robert. I thought the Redfin test was very simplistic and flawed and I had to point that out. Having said that, being right about the war does not make one right about every battle. This is a legitimate, and even interesting, debate and it should never have offended people the way that it did - even before I entered into it.



On the point about 9 "closed" sales: that will double when the dust clears from August. It will be a two month supply. Like I said.
 
That would make 18 sales. Likely better than the foreclosures that go to the bank. I'll watch the ten on Monday and see what the disposition is for them.



At 18 sales, it's on pace with REOs. Maybe slightly ahead maybe slightly behind. August has had good sales to date. July was the best in nearly two years. In July, there were 83 sales according to DQ. Like Lake El and Riverside, the question really is when does the REO fraction begin to dominate the market? Today for Aliso, the ratio is low. But if that ratio climbs to 25% or 30% or 50%, then like Riverside, the market is only REOs and pricing gets hammered.



Hard to tell, frankly, I don't think we'll know until March 2010. By then the banks either have mastered extend and pretend or the bank accounting changes will force their hand. Frankly, I doubt it. It's not in the Government's interest to have housing go haywire. However, the majority of the US housing is doing much better than in California.



Right now, we're at a bottom. I suspect a false bottom. But for sub $500K properties, until rents soften, interest rates rise, or the top end compresses, 3/2s townhomes and SFRs in the non-roughish parts of OC are bottomed out or nearly so. Even with low downs PITI is nearly, if not, equal to rent.

The real bottom, in inflation adjusted terms, is I suspect several years out. As in 5 or more years out. That's just my gut.



Are current prices the nominal bottom with inflation grinding away for years? I don't know, but with the interest rates where they are, I suspect inflation is going to play a big role, contrary to the Government saying COLA for Social Security is zero.



I may be wrong, I'll know come March or April when we can see what the Banks finally do with their foreclosures, the winter lull and the new accounting rules.
 
One last tidbit, to date for August in 92656, ten (10) have been sold at the courthouse auctions to 3rd parties. How many are investors? I suspect all. So for foreclosures, that makes 10 scheduled for Monday, 14 back to the bank, and 10 to 3rd parties likely to quickly show up competing for sales.



That's 24 and maybe more in August, versus how many sales? In July it was 83 market sales with 32 foreclosures going to either the bank or investors. That's not quite 40%.
 
You won't get the true numbers on Monday. It will be a week or more (especially with Labor Day coming up) before everything is updated. Your point about the investor purchases doesn't change things much because some of what you thought were normal sales in August were themselves investor flips bought at auction in recent months.
 
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