"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1252329024]If I may... Robert, I understand you are not necessarily looking to promote your services or yourself. However, have you considered that it may not be best to cause damage your professional image either? I am not trying to take sides here. I just wouldn't want you to do or say something you may regret in 5 or 10 years when a potential client goes to Google you and gets more than they were expecting. Today, you may pay it no mind, but in a few years, you may wish your 25 year-old self chose not to self-destruct your 35 year-old self. It is simply food for thought. I think it took me quite a few years to realize the value in the saying of "don't burn your bridges". I truly hope you will just consider the advice before dismissing it. (Your 35-years-old-and-married-with-two-mouths-to-feed-self might thank me.)</blockquote>


I agree and I am civil with the majority of people on here. But, there are times when you need to stand up to the little annoyances you encounter in life. Some bridges are just too expensive to maintain. And yes, sometimes I let the let those meaningless little annoyances get the best of me. I need to learn to just hit the ignore button quicker on people.



I think the majority of outside readers would feel for the minority on these forums, since there's pages and pages and pages of aggressive comments to almost anyone new here. Plus, it will be a sad day if in 5 or 10 years, 1 of the first even 50 pages on me that shows up on google is an IHB forum post from a decade ago. Not meaning anything bad against IHB, but search engine webcrawlers don't give much attention to forum posts.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1252329024]If I may... Robert, I understand you are not necessarily looking to promote your services or yourself. However, have you considered that it may not be best to cause damage to your professional image either? I am not trying to take sides here. I just wouldn't want you to do or say something you may regret in 5 or 10 years when a potential client goes to Google you and gets more than they were expecting. Today, you may pay it no mind, but in a few years, you may wish your 25 year-old self chose not to self-destruct your 35 year-old self. It is simply food for thought. I think it took me quite a few years to realize the value in the saying of "don't burn your bridges". I truly hope you will just consider the advice before dismissing it. (Your 35-years-old-and-married-with-two-mouths-to-feed-self might thank me.)</blockquote>


And that, is why she is, and should be, a moderator.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252329979]Plus, it will be a sad day if in 5 or 10 years, 1 of the first even 50 pages on me that shows up on google is an IHB forum post from a decade ago. Not meaning anything bad against IHB, but search engine webcrawlers don't give much attention to forum posts.</blockquote>


Google Brightwater in Huntington Beach. 10 years from now it might be number 1, or number 2 after the article about being the fifth company to go BK on that project.



And what is with you always asking for people's credentials? Most of us, myself included, have been involved in a real estate transaction before you even started high school. Just knock it off, it's annoying, and some of us like to remain anonymous, so we don't want to be dropping our RE cred right and left. If you want to be perceived as a professional, then start acting like one, and show some respect to people who are older than you, have more experience than you, have been involved with more RE transactions, and been involved in aspects of the RE business you will never be involved in. You're 25, have had your license for a year, and don't have a single transaction under your belt according to the MLS. Lets be real here, you need to stop being the one to run your mouth, and learn keep your mouth shut and listen. Like I have said before, you might learn something from us bitter renters. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6098/">It looks like someone else has learned a lot from us, and has a lot of respect from us</a>. You can learn a lot from him, and one thing he did... he took or sh*t and has become a very highly respected member.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252329979]...but search engine webcrawlers don't give much attention to forum posts.</blockquote>


Actually, Google pays a great deal of attention to the forum posts. Active forums are indexed frequently, and since Google's algorithms emphasize traffic, the IHB threads come up on many searches. Most newbies now find the forums through an internet search.
 
Robert isn't the problem here. How did that go unnoticed?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252341135][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252329979]Plus, it will be a sad day if in 5 or 10 years, 1 of the first even 50 pages on me that shows up on google is an IHB forum post from a decade ago. Not meaning anything bad against IHB, but search engine webcrawlers don't give much attention to forum posts.</blockquote>


Google Brightwater in Huntington Beach. 10 years from now it might be number 1, or number 2 after the article about being the fifth company to go BK on that project.



And what is with you always asking for people's credentials? Most of us, myself included, have been involved in a real estate transaction before you even started high school. Just knock it off, it's annoying, and some of us like to remain anonymous, so we don't want to be dropping our RE cred right and left. If you want to be perceived as a professional, then start acting like one, and show some respect to people who are older than you, have more experience than you, have been involved with more RE transactions, and been involved in aspects of the RE business you will never be involved in. You're 25, have had your license for a year, and don't have a single transaction under your belt according to the MLS. Lets be real here, you need to stop being the one to run your mouth, and learn keep your mouth shut and listen. Like I have said before, you might learn something from us bitter renters. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6098/">It looks like someone else has learned a lot from us, and has a lot of respect from us</a>. You can learn a lot from him, and one thing he did... he took or sh*t and has become a very highly respected member.</blockquote>


He voluntarily felt the need to brag about his MBA. I'm not sure, but that seems to be an open invitation to ask more about it, or at least it would if you were in my shoes graphy. Everytime a new person mentions something about themselves, you are always the first to ask more questions. So veteran members should not get so offended when they are asked about their credentials, especially when they are the first to start mentioning credentials.



I'm not sure what shit he was taking from me, but by the looks of it, he has been the one just giving shit to anyone disagreeing with the consensus. And you can argue that all you want, but the fact that somehow you found a way to transition this into you, and the entire forum for that matter (It looks like someone else has learned a lot from us, and has a lot of respect from us), it shows that no matter what you will defend the older members here. Apparently, to become a highly respected member all you have to do it stick around here long enough and agree with the forums single-sided opinion.



And since so many are in RE and know it so well, they should realize the effects of teams/groups on the real estate business. Unless the transaction is a direct result of your social sphere, they are listed under a different name.



With that being said, I do like this forum. I, and I recommend to anyone new, need to learn to hit the ignore button quicker on the veteran trolls because arguing will never work. It always ends up being 1 vs. the forum.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252372072]Apparently, to become a highly respected member all you have to do it stick around here long enough and agree with the forums single-sided opinion.</blockquote>


Graphrix earned respect because he consistently backs his analysis with data and sources... and has done so for years. People have been coming here trying to call the bottom (or outright denying there was a bubble) for almost as long. The consensus of people who look at the data objectively is that prices aren't done dropping and the shadow inventory is going to tank everyone's equity when it hits the market. You are free to interpret the data as you see fit, but unless your data, sources, and analysis are rock solid and irrefutable, you are going to be challenged. That isn't being single-sided, it is being rigorous and thorough in an attempt to get at the truth. If your argument is weak and unsupported, or you present opinion as fact, or you make personal attacks rather than defend your conclusions... you will be annihilated. This is not a bearish community because we hate the real estate industry, it's a bearish community because the facts tell us that this collapse is not yet done.



So far, you have yet to convince anyone otherwise.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252373089][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252372072]Apparently, to become a highly respected member all you have to do it stick around here long enough and agree with the forums single-sided opinion.</blockquote>


Graphrix earned respect because he consistently backs his analysis with data and sources... and has done so for years. People have been coming here trying to call the bottom (or outright denying there was a bubble) for almost as long. The consensus of people who look at the data objectively is that prices aren't done dropping and the shadow inventory is going to tank everyone's equity when it hits the market. You are free to interpret the data as you see fit, but unless your data, sources, and analysis are rock solid and irrefutable, you are going to be challenged. That isn't being single-sided, it is being rigorous and thorough in an attempt to get at the truth. If your argument is weak and unsupported, or you present opinion as fact, or you make personal attacks rather than defend your conclusions... you will be annihilated. This is not a bearish community because we hate the real estate industry, it's a bearish community because the facts tell us that this collapse is not yet done.



So far, you have yet to convince anyone otherwise.</blockquote>


That's really funny in light of the rock solid and irrefutable facts unearthed in this thread that indicate your conclusions are far from certain. You are also free to interpret them as you see fit and are currently doing. May I suggest you look at more actual closed sales in Irvine?
 
"If your argument is weak and unsupported, or you present opinion as fact, or you make personal attacks rather than defend your conclusions? you will be annihilated."



Start with the man in the mirror.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252374318]"If your argument is weak and unsupported, or you present opinion as fact, or you make personal attacks rather than defend your conclusions? you will be annihilated."



Start with the man in the mirror.</blockquote>


Skipper Dan, care to point to which argument I have made, which opinion I have claimed to be fact, or which conclusion I have refused to defend?



Take your time, use the search function, and thoroughly scour any response for inconsistencies before you hit the post button.
 
People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252374552][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252374318]"If your argument is weak and unsupported, or you present opinion as fact, or you make personal attacks rather than defend your conclusions? you will be annihilated."



Start with the man in the mirror.</blockquote>


Skipper Dan, care to point to which argument I have made, which opinion I have claimed to be fact, or which conclusion I have refused to defend?



Take your time, use the search function, and thoroughly scour any response for inconsistencies before you hit the post button.</blockquote>


I am not going to explore your posting history, especially in light of the fact that I understand you haven't written much lately. However, I will run with this:



"The consensus of people who look at the data objectively is that prices aren?t done dropping and the shadow inventory is going to tank everyone?s equity when it hits the market. You are free to interpret the data as you see fit, but unless your data, sources, and analysis are rock solid and irrefutable, you are going to be challenged."



The data support that prices, with a few exceptions, are done dropping. Whether they resume dropping based upon shadow inventory is an entirely different matter. I know it's nuanced, but it is a rock solid and irrefutable fact at this moment in time.



And my name isn't Dan and I don't appreciate the snide comments and cute name you think you came up with. You should be ashamed of your conduct.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252373089][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252372072]Apparently, to become a highly respected member all you have to do it stick around here long enough and agree with the forums single-sided opinion.</blockquote>


Graphrix earned respect because he consistently backs his analysis with data and sources... and has done so for years. People have been coming here trying to call the bottom (or outright denying there was a bubble) for almost as long. The consensus of people who look at the data objectively is that prices aren't done dropping and the shadow inventory is going to tank everyone's equity when it hits the market. You are free to interpret the data as you see fit, but unless your data, sources, and analysis are rock solid and irrefutable, you are going to be challenged. That isn't being single-sided, it is being rigorous and thorough in an attempt to get at the truth. If your argument is weak and unsupported, or you present opinion as fact, or you make personal attacks rather than defend your conclusions... you will be annihilated. This is not a bearish community because we hate the real estate industry, it's a bearish community because the facts tell us that this collapse is not yet done.



So far, you have yet to convince anyone otherwise.</blockquote>


Graphrix does offer a lot. That's why no matter how much he gets on my nerves sometimes, I can't ignore him because he provides good data. However, I will not say the facts tell you that the collapse is not yet done. That's definitely one interpretation.



Okay, I'm done with this. If anyone has anything analytical to say, let me know. This thread was fun while it lasted...
 
I don't have much to add to this thread, but I've been watching it with interest.



I'm no real estate expert, so the arguments back and forth--the my facts vs. your facts--in this thread are kind of lost on me. That said, I respect the longtime members for their knowledge of real estate. These guys (and I'm including women) know what they're talking about, in my opinion. As a mostly-lurker on the forums, I've learned enough to be convinced that housing prices probably are going to drop once the REOs hit the market, unless something extraordinary occurs to prevent that from happening.



But still, I think it's not just my facts vs. your facts. I feel like as new members, RoLar and Newport Skipper have an uphill battle to climb. Like someone else was mentioning earlier, it's kind of a mob mentality. The senior members watch each other's backs and the newbies have to prove themselves. That's understandable. But more than that, I think the senior members have more leeway when it comes to "personal attacks," or whatever you want to call them. The longtime members seem to be able to get away with a little bit more.



I do wish the forums were a little less intimidating to newbies. For me, I definitely don't have the facts or data to argue about stuff, but I do have opinions and I wish I could post more without being afraid of being attacked. I wonder if there are other people lurking out there like me.



Whatever anyone's viewpoint, I respect people who have the time, energy, and persistence to keep up with a thread like this...especially the newbies going up against the IHB brain trust goliath.
 
I'm wondering if I can get the addresses for the Irvine homes shown on Foreclosure Radar as NOD and NTS (not REO). I see that there are 390 short sales active or in the works for Irvine right now and I am wondering how well they match up with the NODs and NTSs. It also appears that Foreclosure Radar has HOA actions on it. Correct me if I am wrong on that.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252375111]People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.</blockquote>


Sorry, but that's just a cop-out to completely disregard our posts. There is plenty of supporting data, which we continue to post.



When it comes down to, only time will tell. The next 6 months will definitely tell if we hit the bottom or are a long ways away.
 
Notice of defaults tend to appear about six months to one year after recasts in the present enviornment.
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[quote author="awgee" date=1252377624]Notice of defaults tend to appear about six months to one year after recasts in the present enviornment.</blockquote>


It is a leap of faith to assume that this will mean much of anything. As I said, there are currently 390 short sales active or in progress. This has been the case for some time, and prices have stablized nonetheless. Even if all the NODs and NTSs become REO, it is far from certain that prices will fall, especially considering this will not happen all at once.



Nevermind, it looks like your charts are statewide anyway.
 
It is a leap of faith to believe anything other than what has proven to be true.
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