3000 The Plaza

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^^ I suppose our point of view of what a primary residence is differs. It is not a true investment. Most property, unless you are making positive cash flow (which is hard to do with California property), is a liability. Just look at your balance sheet. In this market, if you have more than 3-4 investment properties for which you are leveraging lender cash, lenders won't let you borrow for your own home. Don't get me wrong, housing can be an investment in the sense you hope it appreciates. Certain "products" (if the high-rise is sold as a "product," then I suppose any sort of housing community can be characterized as such) will fair better than others, and condos aren't typically on the receiving end of large upswings in market, and can, at the same time, be sensitive to large down swings. But what it really boils down to, at least for me is: (1) viewing this as a place to LIVE, first and foremost (not to "invest"), (2) appreciating what the product has to offer, and it is clear - rightfully so - that many posters on this forum do not, and (3) understanding who the product is intended for. Just realizing that the untis from floors 6-14 are essentially million (and up to million-dollar) homes tells you this place isn't for people who cut coupons or shop at Wal-mart on a regular basis. Something tells me that if those expensive units can sustain this market value (again, the saying goes you only need to find one person more foolish than you to buy your unit), the lower priced units can hold their value fairly well.



From what I understand, there were a number of business people and international buyers who purchased units to have a place to stay when they traveled to the area once or twice a month. This can explain the dark windows at night. But I have not verified the accuracy of this information, however, and i have no clue whether these international buyers bought these as "investment properties." They would be delusional to think that they can appreciate much, which I'm conceding is the likely scenario.



But look, all points here are well taken, especially from you experienced posters. I am not in denial that these units can start selling for a lot less, but how much less remains to be seen. Based on Jim Cramer's (what a hack) outlook, he believes we have 300 days left in the housing slump before it rebounds. I'd be fine if it rebounds longer than that, because I'm looking for a place t olive. If I want to invest, my money would be going to true investment properties out of this state.



FWIW, i don't believe the luxury hi-rise condos in Irvine are being tagged as an "affordabilty" product (at least the Plaza isn't). I think that it is true that hi-rise condos have to generally have that quality in dense urban populations. But once you begin taking that product out of its true element and sticking it in a place like Irvine, there has to be a different marketing appeal, because no one is trying to fool anybody (and I don't think the developers of the Plaza are doing this) that the surrounding area resembles anything urban. Thus, it is a truly premium product. Again, I will point out the fact that at least 1/2, if not more than that, are over $1 million. In that territory, how can anyone believe this ia about "affordability." It really is about lifestyle.
 
What I got from JLegend's post is a review of The Plaza through the eyes of a person it's designed for. I think what he's saying is that the lifestyle it offers is something he would enjoy and as they say: people pay for convenience. (For example the concierge service is something you can't get by buying a SFR or other property.) I don't think he's trying to convince us it's a great investment but if money is not really a concern to you then this might be a place you'd enjoy. Am I right JLegend?
 
[quote author="Ambiepants" date=1220055940]What I got from JLegend's post is a review of The Plaza through the eyes of a person it's designed for. Am I right JLegend?</blockquote>


Yup. Someone who has lost site of the value of the dollar and has been sick of living in apartments for the last 13 years of his life. A sucker is what the Plaza was looking for, and that is what it has found. =)
 
Well, it sounds like you really want to buy here. So do it. What do you need our approval for if you are already set on buying here?



I'm sorry, but the towers might be a luxury product now, but the purpose for them, in any city in the world, is an affordability product. It is when there really is no more land to build, houses cost more than condo units like this, population is growing rapidly, and there is a shortage of SFRs. This is basic urban development.



I like this product, yes it is called a product in the RE industry, but the price is just insanely too high. I don't what anyone says, when these places drop another $100k it will hurt. Anyone who tells you they can just see it through is a liar. It will hurt. And, mark my words, this place will drop in price hard.
 
^^ Thanks graphrix. Not looking for approval. Just thought I'd share my thoughts, and not surprisingly, received the same type of comments that were running through the other threads. Which is certainly fine, but it's nice to have this discussion, since the respones to the "3000 Plaza" thread was a good year ago. Looks like people's minds have not changed. But again, we'll see what I end up doing. If I decide to move forward, I will certainly keep the visitors to this site apprised (although market values will be readily available on redfin and the like).
 
Why 3000 The Plaza instead of the two towers at The Plaza (5000 and 8000)?



I really liked the 'model' I toured at The Plaza a while ago. Is 3000 The Plaza any different (other than the rooftop pool - bad feng shui right bk?)?
 
JLegend, I know you like this place and are thinking about buying so lets just assume you are definetly going to buy at 3000. What are your thoughts on waiting a year or two and buying then? No, you wouldnt be the first owner (although you possibly could since they aren't selling like hotcakes) but what are your views on waiting on your purchse given that the odds of a signifigant price drop are pretty high. Do you think these sellers may be desperate soon and you might be able to get a great deal and not pay such an extreme premium?



Or another option, renting like others do at the marquee? Would you ever consider renting at the Marquee or the 3000 instead of owning?



Urban living does not really appeal to me so I have never really looked at the costs or comparables too closely (plus the stadium lofts are closer to my price range anyways :) ), so it would be great to see your view on these.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220058119]^^ Thanks graphrix. Not looking for approval. Just thought I'd share my thoughts, and not surprisingly, received the same type of comments that were running through the other threads. Which is certainly fine, but it's nice to have this discussion, since the respones to the "3000 Plaza" thread was a good year ago. Looks like people's minds have not changed. But again, we'll see what I end up doing. If I decide to move forward, I will certainly keep the visitors to this site apprised (although market values will be readily available on redfin and the like).</blockquote>


Might I suggest you start tracking foreclosures. I can tell you they are very forward looking, and it isn't looking pretty for the Plaza. You keep us apprised on what is happening right now, and we will keep you apprised on what is going to be happening in the future there.
 
The other two towers are nice. I prefer the different floor plans at the 3000 building and like the fact it is independent from the other two towers (again, the down side being a smaller work out facility and pool area, but not deal breakers). But the fact 3000 is a new build, you have more negotiating leverage with the builder (upgrades, having some HOA covered, closing costs paid, etc.). With a resell, you'd only be negotiating the purchase price, typically, and those buildings are a year or two older.



Oh, and another reason for no lights at the 3000 - no units have closed. I hear about 45% "sold." I was told move-ins to begin slowly Sept. through Oct. Not sure about the other two towers. don't typically drive by there at night.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220058933]

Oh, and another reason for no lights at the 3000 - no units have closed. I hear about 45% "sold." I was told move-ins to begin slowly Sept. through Oct. Not sure about the other two towers. don't typically drive by there at night.</blockquote>




Can someone with good MLS access check this out? have 45% really gone into escrow? Have any closed?
 
[quote author="zovall" date=1220058574]Why 3000 The Plaza instead of the two towers at The Plaza (5000 and 8000)?



I really liked the 'model' I toured at The Plaza a while ago. Is 3000 The Plaza any different (other than the rooftop pool - bad feng shui right bk?)?</blockquote>


BAD BAD BAD BAD feng shui to have a water drain over your head.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1220066380][quote author="zovall" date=1220058574]Why 3000 The Plaza instead of the two towers at The Plaza (5000 and 8000)?



I really liked the 'model' I toured at The Plaza a while ago. Is 3000 The Plaza any different (other than the rooftop pool - bad feng shui right bk?)?</blockquote>


BAD BAD BAD BAD feng shui to have a water drain over your head.</blockquote>


I guess this gives a <em>whole</em> new meaning to Chinese water torture...
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220058119]^^ Thanks graphrix. Not looking for approval. Just thought I'd share my thoughts, and not surprisingly, received the same type of comments that were running through the other threads. Which is certainly fine, but it's nice to have this discussion, since the respones to the "3000 Plaza" thread was a good year ago. Looks like people's minds have not changed. But again, we'll see what I end up doing. If I decide to move forward, I will certainly keep the visitors to this site apprised (although market values will be readily available on redfin and the like).</blockquote>


The posters here at IHB represent a huge cross spectrum of demographic. They are different in every way ranging from income to food choices. Their view points on high-rise living in a SUBURB are the same and they will not change as you have pointed out since a year ago. You may say who cares and I am going to buy it anyway. You are not wealthy you admitted for not being able to afford Crystal Cove so you will be putting all your money into a flat. At some point you will need to sell it and guess who will be the buyers? They are the same people on IHB. The opinions expressed here represent the voice of the majority and good luck in finding a buyer for your resale. I hope your retirement asset is not tie to your home equity or we will have to invent a special name for your Inverse reverse mortgage.



Highrise must be tied to land economic where land value is over $10 mil per acre. It works in places like NY, HK, Shanghai, Tokyo, and SF. It will never works when the surrounding areas offer single family detached living with a swing set in a backyard.
 
JLegend, would you provide some information (nothing too pesronal) about your demographic, so I can better understand the potential market for 3000 the plaza? The two I see would be young professionals making a ton of money, and retired couples. How many young professionals in Irvine are really making twice as much as I make? Enough to fill up the plaza and Marquee?



I would live at either of these towers, but I don't make enough. By the time I am making that much, i'll be more interested in having a family and getting a place with a yard, etc.
 
JLegend - Is it about Choice and Is it about Affordability? Most of the time, affordability limits your choices?

You want to live in Crystal Cove, but you cant afford it. So now you can afford 3000,

and you choose to make your opinion known. And you have made a point to defend the choice with vigor.



But Crystal Cove is what you really want? Why not post about that? Like why it is the best...etc



What does 3000 have to do with what you want? It's not what you want, it's what you have chosen.

So your post seems like a Marketing Tool for 3000...



You're SUSPECT!
 
First, I appreciate that there is a ranging demographic of participants on this forum. To be fair, it is only somewhat representative. Obviously, not all potential purchasers are on this board. And those are the people that may very well be willing to buy in to the high-rise lifestyle in OC, or not.



The demographics for the place like the Plaza are simple: working professionals with a bit more disposable income. Just running the numbers, a combined (or single) household would have to be making around $200K and up to get into one of these places. They could be doctors, dentists, lawyers at big law firms, people in the financial field, investment bankers or business people (no need to argue with me that Kaiser doctors don't make that much or not all lawyers do - I don't know, I'm just saying). There are some technology companies in the area as well, and I'm sure they have their share of high salaried employees - maybe not as high as $200K, but a young couple with a combined income of that level could swing it. I also mentioned international business people - for some reason those people seem to have a lot of money, and with the weakness of the dollar, property here may be more affordable than in their own countries.



There is a big stretch between me saying I want to live in Crystal Cove (at the very least $3million homes) and buying a $700K condo in irvine, the former being more of a dream than anything. I'm not posting about Crystal Cove because there is no way I can afford to live there in the next 10-20 years, if ever, and I have no reason to do any research regarding those types of properties. I haven't finally decided whether 3000 is what I want. It looks nice, the numbers don't look totally insane, and what it has to offer looks great. Maybe I'm disillusioned because I've seen a lot of crap in the market that is cheaper, but on the other hand, is not as move-in ready as the Plaza. Maybe I'm also sick of renting. I also refuse to live in Tustin, can't afford an SFR in the areas I like (Crystal Cove for one, other parts of Newport, etc.). I've looked into Aliso Viejo, and I'm not interested. Not interested in Laguna Niguel either, nor other areas of Costa Mesa, Orange, or Santa Ana. So, apparently I am imposing huge limitations on myself, which is fine.



The consensus here that short or long term hi-rise living in OC is not a good buy because the market won't support it - very well informed opinions for sure, but I also feel there is a bit of "the sky is falling," in the warnings I'm receiving here. The Marquee could be a sign of what's to come for the Plaza, or maybe not. Different developers, different locations, different looks, and the fact 3000 is not overrun by multi-unit flippers, could play into the calculus of what happens to the Plaza. Apparently my crystal ball isn't as clear as everyone else's. But I'm guessing very few of you guessed (or even calculated) the trajectory of the housing market before and during the bubble. Bottom line, I'd be happy if such a place holds its value. Sure it could go down, but that's life. EVERYONE's property value is down now.
 
Thank you for your view point. New members like yourself is what IHB needs so it is not an echo chamber forum. I hope that you are not discouraged by the negative attitude toward prematured highrise living in OC and that you'll continue to post other subjects. The experts here are number driven and practical. The law of economic does not make sense for such a project. You are emotional and lifestyle driven and this project makes sense for you. Good luck in finding 104 more similar thinking neighbors or 105 customers and in both cases they are not here in IHB.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1220074409]Thank you for your view point. New members like yourself is what IHB needs so it is not an echo chamber forum. I hope that you are not discouraged by the negative attitude toward prematured highrise living in OC and that you'll continue to post other subjects. The experts here are number driven and practical. The law of economic does not make sense for such a project. You are emotional and lifestyle driven and this project makes sense for you. Good luck in finding 104 more similar thinking neighbors or 105 customers and in both cases they are not here in IHB.</blockquote>


Thanks, luckily I have thick skin, and I am by no means discouraged. I like hearing these viewpoints. Hell, maybe I won't end up buying there. You're right, part of it, if not a majority of my perspective on this project is driven by emotion. I'll tell you, I was sure impressed during my visit. But I had also been checking out properties out in San Diego (all new home builds), and was similarly impressed by the models, and you could get hell of a lot more home out there in certain areas. Unfortunately, it would be too much of a long commute to OC.



I look forward to continued participation outside of this thread. Since none of you will ever buy a place at the Plaza, and if I end up pursuing this, feel free to stop by and use the rooftop pool!
 
I support buying a highrise flat in Downtown SD. The infrastructure and context are right for it. I do know people bought there along the water and across the street from the train depot. They commute via train to OC everyday. The time on the train is for project correspondences and Internet. They also keep a cheap car parked at the Irvine train station. They love the lifestyle in SD and Gas lamp district.



An important part of my job is lifestyle branding and I know all the facets in creating elements appealing to buyers emotion and a rooftop pool is one of them. I can also find another dozen of things that will appeal to you as well. I absolutely understand your psychology.



Buyers are moved by the merchandising of model homes and soon after moving in realizing all the nice decorations were just an illusion.



I am currently working on a top luxury historic hotel. Getting the patrons to feel like a king and queen in providing all the required details.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

The consensus here that short or long term hi-rise living in OC is not a good buy because the market won't support it

</blockquote>
I for one, think it is a fine buy if that is what you want. But, do not count on being able to sell it for your purchase price within the next few years.





[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

very well informed opinions for sure, but I also feel there is a bit of "the sky is falling," in the warnings I'm receiving here.

</blockquote>
Actually, in the residential re market, the sky is falling. Many are in denial, but figuratively, the sky is falling.



[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

The Marquee could be a sign of what's to come for the Plaza, or maybe not. Different developers, different locations, different looks, and the fact 3000 is not overrun by multi-unit flippers, could play into the calculus of what happens to the Plaza.

</blockquote>
Again, the individual project is the least relevant of factors when projecting future returns.



[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

Apparently my crystal ball isn't as clear as everyone else's.

</blockquote>
Yup.



[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

But I'm guessing very few of you guessed (or even calculated) the trajectory of the housing market before and during the bubble.

</blockquote>
It may be a few, but there are those of us who did foresee the "trajectory of the housing market before and during the bubble", and are profiting from that assessment.



[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

Bottom line, I'd be happy if such a place holds its value.

</blockquote>
But, more importantly, will you be happy if your potential condo depreciates and depreciates greatly? I have been upside down on a property, and I did not like it at all. It bothered me, alot. I hate to lose money. But then, you aren't me and maybe it would not bother you.



[quote author="JLegend" date=1220072422]

Sure it could go down, but that's life. EVERYONE's property value is down now.</blockquote>
This is the rub. Most folks do not feel as bad about losing money as long as everyone else is in the same boat.

Seriously. It is a fact.




I have not been humble in this thread. My posts have been designed to disturb and irritate.




But now, may I humbly suggest that you ask open questions of the <em>"well informed opinions"</em> in here. By open, I mean without pre-formed opinions. I do not think I can relate how much I have learned from the posters here. They have exquisite knowledge of subjects relating to housing which I did not even know existed.
 
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