3000 The Plaza

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JLegend_IHB

New member
I visited 3000 the Plaza at one of their open houses, and here are a few of my thoughts. Prices for the units are from mid-$600,000 for the "A" Plan and to over 2 million for the penthouses. Things in between are around low to mid $1 million.



As an initial matter, I would estimate that for someone (or a couple) to qualify for the smaller plans in the mid-600K to $800K range, one would have to have a decent amount saved up for the down payment and a yearly salary of about $200K or more. I think the floor plans for the 3000 building are generally nicer than the first two towers. The only drawback is that residents of the 3000 tower cannot use the amenities of the first two towers, since they have different HOAs. So the rooftop pool of the 3000 is smaller, but not big deal if one isn't an avid swimmer anyway. I was underwhelmed by the 3000's workout facility which is on the terrace level of the building. The workout facilities for the first two towers, which are shared, are much nicer. On the other hand, there are only 105 units in the 3000 building, so you are dealing with less residents anyway.



I was impressed by the overall quality of the 3000 tower. Surprisingly, the small things make a big difference. It was very well thought out. All units come with Viking appliances (except for a washer/dryer). The media areas are prewired. Units come with recessed lighting. Walls are hand troweled rather than blasted by a machine, so walls have a nice texture. The front doors are heavy, substantial wood doors. The hallways are quite large and don't have a hotel-type feel. The lobby, although small, is beautifully decorated. Adjoining unit walls are double thick and floors and ceiling are 8" concrete.



So the next question is whether it is "worth it." I will limit my discussion to the units that are less than $1 million, because I think the approach, calculus and perspective changes when one has the money to afford the million and up units. With respect to the HOA dues, my understanding is that it is based on size of unit. Now, HOA dues are priced at high $800 for the A plans and up to $1000 for the smaller 2 bedroom plans, with square footage in the high 1300 - 1700, I think. This includes all amenities, cable (not sure the extent of the package, maybe just basic), internet, water, tele land line, but not electricity. I understand that many places in Costa Mesa, Irvine and Tustin, whether SFRs, townhomes or condos generally have HOA that ranges from $200-$350, and on top of that some communities add Mello Roos. The Plaza has no additional Mello Roos. Adding the cost of at least cable, internet, and other utilites for these types of homes gets your monthly to $400-$550 conservatively (not sure if Mello Roos would add even more). The way I see it, if your HOA is $900-$1000, you are paying about $500, maybe $600 for a "luxury" lifestyle. Whether that premium is worth it, is up to the individual, but certainly not "insane," or "stupid" as some people make it out to be.



What about the purchase price? Again, assuming one is looking in the areas of Costa Mesa, Irvine and Tustin, many "comparable" condos are still in the $500-600K range (I use quotes for comparable, because I really have not seen a move-in ready unit as nice as the Plaza, but for arguments sake, considering similar square footage). I saw a townhouse in Costa Mesa (about 1900 sq. ft) near the back bay as a short sale for $630K. Sure the HOA was only $200, but this place was 20 years old, the deck over looking the back bay was falling apart and needed to be replaced, it was noisy and all windows also needed to be replaced. The kitchen cabinets were also a wreck. I'm thinking this place needed at least an additional $40K of work, and it's still 20 years old! You can obviously find a unit cheaper than what is offered at 3000, but I assure you it would not be as nicely finished, won't have Viking appliances, and similar amenities. I see units in Turtle Ridge going for at least $600K.



With 3000 The Plaza, we're talking about a brand new build. There is still opportunity to reduce the builder's asking price, asking for help with HOAs (have it covered for a certain amount of time), asking for upgrades or maybe even have closing costs paid. Certainly things one wouldn't get buying resells.



3000 isn't an "investment property." Hardly anything, if at all, in OC would be. This is a place to live. I can't see how someone would not love coming home to a place there (unless you have punk neighbors). Whether one can sell a place like this in 3-8 years remains to be seen. It only takes one sucker greater than you to sell the place. Admittedly, the market for these types of units is pretty small, but there are plenty of law firms, doctors offices and successful people in the area to be in that market. It might take some time to sell a place, but I can't imagine one losing much, if at all in the 3-8 year range. Asking for 5% annual appreciation might be asking for much, but really, who knows? If one is set on getting an SFR, you'll likely be deep in Tustin, and people inclined for SFRs wouldn't be looking at the Plaza anyway. The Plaza is close enough to Newport Beach and not deep in Irvine. It's nice and quite, and does not have the cookie cutter feel.



Overall, I'm highly considering it because I can afford it, and I think I would enjoy coming home every night after a hard days work.
 
Not at all. Definitely not in the real estate business. I'm someone shopping for a nice place in OC, and I think the Plaza and its HOA dues are misunderstood. I was just giving my candid thoughts. There are people who think it is a rip off. I'm just explaining how it isn't.



The Marquee is a mess. I've been there, and I certainly wouldn't endorse the place.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1220005608]condo salesman?</blockquote>


I dunno, but the idea that you can't lose if you hold on for three to eight years to one of these losers is hilarious. In three years, they will be selling for half of what they are selling for now in real vs. nominal dollars, and in eight years, they will still be the same price.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1220007097][quote author="freedomCM" date=1220005608]condo salesman?</blockquote>


I dunno, but the idea that you can't lose if you hold on for three to eight years to one of these losers is hilarious. In three years, they will be selling for half of what they are selling for now in real vs. nominal dollars, and in eight years, they will still be the same price.</blockquote>


I'm glad to see you are routing for the failure of these condos. There is no way a $700,000 unit here will sell for $350K or $400K. That is just not the market in Irvine (close to UCI and Newport Beach) and East Side Costa Mesa. Even in this market, regular condos are still fairing quite well in those areas. I understand that HOA dues are high, and not everyone can afford them. I do agree that even assuming the market is robust years out, there is not much room for a $700,000 or even $800,000 condo to go any higher. And certainly, this isn't a rental property. I also acknowledge that Central Park West is being planned off Michaelson and that can further dilute the market for planned condo-type communities, but even what they offer is different than the 105 unit tower at 3000 the Plaza. But let me guess, you have never even seen them. I was quite skeptical about the idea and thought buying a place here would be a sink hole and a ridiculous move. After some analysis, it appears it isn't such a bad deal. I like to think I'm smart. I get paid enough to be able to afford a place there, afterall.



And quite frankly, I rather pay more for a really nice place than a $450,000 condo that is mediocre. I'm just saying I would be willing to pay the premium for such a nice place.
 
If he's not a realtor, it's very convenient that his only 3 posts related to pumping up this property. Also, it reads like a diary, not a post to a blog. Most posts are questions not someone's life long dream of owning a condo in a crappy market.
 
So tell me how big the market is for the 500 or so $750k 2b condos along Jamboree?



You need people making north of $200k without kids and without the desire for a house. In NYC, this is a significant market. In The OC, it is tiny. And most of those people would rather have one of the condos in Newport close to Fashion Island, rather than on Jamboree, where they have ocean views and more dining and entertainment options walkable. Particularly if they are in the financial services companies clustered there.



UCI is a red herring. I work there, and the number of potential buyers from UCI employees is single digits, if that. And no parents are going to buy their kids attending the place a $750k crash pad.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1220010111]If he's not a realtor, it's very convenient that his only 3 posts related to pumping up this property. Also, it reads like a diary, not a post to a blog. Most posts are questions not someone's life long dream of owning a condo in a crappy market.</blockquote>


Relax bro. this was my first good experience after having been looking in this market for the last 4 months, and I'd thought I'd share it. I've seen a lot of crap on the MLS and following up on short sales and foreclosures. there's a reason those properties are so cheap. Besides, I didn't realize this forum was for only posting asinine questions like, "should I buy this place." I can certainly make that decision on my own. Next time I'll get my post count in the hundreds to gain some credibility. For some reason it took over a week just to get my log-in credentials.



If I was interested in selling a unit or "pumping" up this property, as it were, I would have hyped up the expensive units. I was just focusing the discussion on those that are sort of in my price range. From what I understand, it's the lower priced units that are selling pretty quick, and the builder certainly doesn't need me to speak on its behalf.



I have no stake in this, nor am I looking for any validation on my thoughts. Rather than carrying on an intelligent dialogue why some place like the Plaza can't be successful in Irvine (by at least people who havevisited the property), I'm being branded as a realtor, and someone who doesn't deserve to post.



You can all be belligerent at the idea of urban-style living in the heart of suburbia and complain how expensive it is (most likely because you're priced out of it anyway), which was really my initial take on it. But a nice place is a nice place, and I would rather live at a place like the Plaza than Tustin or Irvine. Actually I'd rather live in Crystal Cove, but I can't afford it.
 
Jlegend,



Your post is well composed and a very good testimony of your preferred lifestyle. We have been on this forum for a very long time that a 1st time poster being this articulate is rare so we are skeptical or your sincerity. I am excited to seeing about a thousand more of your thoughtful posts. You certainly fit the demographic of the Plaza buyer. The posters here are extremely smart and have read the one million reasons we posted on why highrise living is too premature for OC.



Try the search button and read some of our earlier posts. Looking forward to identify your unit because it will be the only one lit at night.
 
Just curious, if you do not see them selling around 350k to 400k. What do you see them selling for in 3 to 8 years?



Hmm, heres a new one selling for 499k...and it hasnt sold for 262 days......



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3141-Michelson-Dr-92612/unit-807/home/12126335">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3141-Michelson-Dr-92612/unit-807/home/12126335</a>



Would this serve as a comparable?



Do you think its worth nearly double the price of <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#pt=3&min_price=350000&max_price=500000&num_beds=2&num_baths=2&min_listing_approx_size=1250&max_listing_approx_size=2000&min_year_built=2006&v=3&lat=33.66758996285635&long;=-117.76483275565087&zoomLevel=10&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">this one</a> not counting HOA's?
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1220011599]Jlegend,



Your post is well composed and a very good testimony of your preferred lifestyle. We have been on this forum for a very long time that a 1st time poster being this articulate is rare so we are skeptical or your sincerity. I am excited to seeing about a thousand more of your thoughtful posts. You certainly fit the demographic of the Plaza buyer. The posters here are extremely smart and have read the one million reasons we posted on why highrise living is too premature for OC.



Try the search button and read some of our earlier posts. Looking forward to identify your unit because it will be the only one lit at night.</blockquote>


Thanks. I've seen the many posts on here, and I appreciate the thoughts that highrise living is not only premature for OC, but even likely inappropriate. I also understand it doesn't help that the Marquee was a total flop, and that the planned Astoria does not look too promising. Testimony of the over-expansion of an untested market is going on in Santa Ana, at what is it, Skyline? Same thing can be said of the Plaza. But I particularly enjoyed by visit at the 3000 The Plaza, and have put it on my radar. We'll see what happens. But I have yet to see other housing options that has gotten me excited.



I guess deep down inside I am not ready for the surburban lifestyle, but I am also too lazy and old (and not rich enough) to live the city life of S.F. or Manhattan.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220011571][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1220010111]If he's not a realtor, it's very convenient that his only 3 posts related to pumping up this property. Also, it reads like a diary, not a post to a blog. Most posts are questions not someone's life long dream of owning a condo in a crappy market.</blockquote>


Relax bro. this was my first good experience after having been looking in this market for the last 4 months, and I'd thought I'd share it. I've seen a lot of crap on the MLS and following up on short sales and foreclosures. there's a reason those properties are so cheap. Besides, I didn't realize this forum was for only posting asinine questions like, "should I buy this place." I can certainly make that decision on my own. Next time I'll get my post count in the hundreds to gain some credibility. For some reason it took over a week just to get my log-in credentials.



If I was interested in selling a unit or "pumping" up this property, as it were, I would have hyped up the expensive units. I was just focusing the discussion on those that are sort of in my price range. From what I understand, it's the lower priced units that are selling pretty quick, and the builder certainly doesn't need me to speak on its behalf.



I have no stake in this, nor am I looking for any validation on my thoughts. Rather than carrying on an intelligent dialogue why some place like the Plaza can't be successful in Irvine (by at least people who havevisited the property), I'm being branded as a realtor, and someone who doesn't deserve to post.



You can all be belligerent at the idea of urban-style living in the heart of suburbia and complain how expensive it is (most likely because you're priced out of it anyway), which was really my initial take on it. But a nice place is a nice place, and I would rather live at a place like the Plaza than Tustin or Irvine. Actually I'd rather live in Crystal Cove, but I can't afford it.</blockquote>


Relax bro.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1220011599]Jlegend,



Your post is well composed and a very good testimony of your preferred lifestyle. We have been on this forum for a very long time that a 1st time poster being this articulate is rare so we are skeptical or your sincerity. I am excited to seeing about a thousand more of your thoughtful posts. You certainly fit the demographic of the Plaza buyer. The posters here are extremely smart and have read the one million reasons we posted on why highrise living is too premature for OC.



Try the search button and read some of our earlier posts. Looking forward to identify your unit because it will be the only one lit at night.</blockquote>


I love you BK. I've been lurking forever and with each post I grow more attached. Is that wrong?
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1220011909]Just curious, if you do not see them selling around 350k to 400k. What do you see them selling for in 3 to 8 years?



Hmm, heres a new one selling for 499k...and it hasnt sold for 262 days......



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3141-Michelson-Dr-92612/unit-807/home/12126335">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3141-Michelson-Dr-92612/unit-807/home/12126335</a>



Would this serve as a comparable?



Do you think its worth nearly double the price of <a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#pt=3&min_price=350000&max_price=500000&num_beds=2&num_baths=2&min_listing_approx_size=1250&max_listing_approx_size=2000&min_year_built=2006&v=3&lat=33.66758996285635&long;=-117.76483275565087&zoomLevel=10&region_id=332&region_type=5&market=socal">this one</a> not counting HOA's?</blockquote>


Fair enough. This is a likely a short sale, and at such a huge loss for the bank it is not willing to approve a sale at that price, hence its inability to sell. But what do I know. Marquee is a flop because units were purchased by many short-sighted investors looking to flip their units, and the overall quality just isn't up to par for what they were asking. 3000 Plaza at least restricts one home per buyer.



Besides, you are pointing out an example of a property trying to be sold in this crappy market. I would assume that anywhere from 3-8 years the housing market will fair better in general, banks will have figured out more appropriate lending standards than the strict ones they have in place now to clean up the mess of the past few years. But if your point is that this is evidence that the Plaza is ridiculous for trying to sell their units for what they are, well, they are obviously trying to make money, or in the least limit losses, since obviously the market has changed dramatically since their initial projections. If you are also suggesting that people are pretty stupid to step into 3000 for these very reasons, well, they only need 105 stupid people (and likely their spouses). I may or may not be one of them.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1220011368]So tell me how big the market is for the 500 or so $750k 2b condos along Jamboree?



You need people making north of $200k without kids and without the desire for a house. In NYC, this is a significant market. In The OC, it is tiny. And most of those people would rather have one of the condos in Newport close to Fashion Island, rather than on Jamboree, where they have ocean views and more dining and entertainment options walkable. Particularly if they are in the financial services companies clustered there.



UCI is a red herring. I work there, and the number of potential buyers from UCI employees is single digits, if that. And no parents are going to buy their kids attending the place a $750k crash pad.</blockquote>


All quite true. Which condos in Newport are you talking about? I would like to check them out. If you are talking about the old brown ones off Jamboree and San Joaquin, or further up Jamboree towards PCH, those are still very expensive and old. I'd probably have to spend an additional $25K just to make them look nice and more modern.



I'm not advocating spending $900K on a condo at the Plaza. Hell, if one can get it for $600K or less, I'm just saying it's not a bad deal, and probably a good place to live if that 's what you are looking for.
 
[quote author="zotmecula" date=1220012469][quote author="bkshopr" date=1220011599]Jlegend,



Your post is well composed and a very good testimony of your preferred lifestyle. We have been on this forum for a very long time that a 1st time poster being this articulate is rare so we are skeptical or your sincerity. I am excited to seeing about a thousand more of your thoughtful posts. You certainly fit the demographic of the Plaza buyer. The posters here are extremely smart and have read the one million reasons we posted on why highrise living is too premature for OC.



Try the search button and read some of our earlier posts. Looking forward to identify your unit because it will be the only one lit at night.</blockquote>


I love you BK. I've been lurking forever and with each post I grow more attached. Is that wrong?</blockquote>


Zot,



Hope you will post your thought. Interesting handle? Any relationship to Temecula?
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220012147]



Thanks. I've seen the many posts on here, and I appreciate the thoughts that highrise living is not only premature for OC, but even likely inappropriate. I also understand it doesn't help that the Marquee was a total flop, and that the planned Astoria does not look too promising. Testimony of the over-expansion of an untested market is going on in Santa Ana, at what is it, Skyline? Same thing can be said of the Plaza. But I particularly enjoyed by visit at the 3000 The Plaza, and have put it on my radar. We'll see what happens. But I have yet to see other housing options that has gotten me excited.



I guess deep down inside I am not ready for the surburban lifestyle, but I am also too lazy and old (and not rich enough) to live the city life of S.F. or Manhattan.</blockquote>


I am renting a 2/2 at the Marquee now. It's fantastic. Very convenient living. Great for couple with no kids. The Marquee is a quality Bosa development with a fantastic lobby and amenities. Why would you say 3000 Plaza is a much better buy? Yes, the the building was bought by flippers but the 3000 Plaza can't be worth more than a comparable unit at the Marquee. In fact, I suspect both the Marquee and 3000 Plaza will sell for $300/SF or less in a couple of years. Some units at the Marquee are not too far away from $350/SF.
 
Whoa... whoa... IHBers, come on now, even <em>I</em> wouldn't jump on a newbie who posted such a long post with such quick quips. So, I will add my ?2, even if they are not worth as much as they once were, and add some facts and my opinion. Also, like BK said, I hope JLegend posts more of his articulate opinions in the future. We need the diversity, and truly at IHB we really encourage it. JLegand, I hope you have thick skin and keep posting. Look at IR2, Ipoplaya, etc., as examples of those who have toughed it out, and have survived to become very valued members.



First, and I repeat what a search would find, the high rise/high density product is designed to be an affordability product, not a premium product. I am not joking, as there are some great examples in the south side of Chicago that can be used as examples. They were a premium product, that are now a project that they wish they could demolish. I want anyone here to really think about this. Do we in OC really need this product? Are we really running out of land? Are we really creating jobs to fill these spaces? Do we have an stock/equity/commodity/bond exchange to fill these units for that type of lifestyle, or did all the mortgage brokers who bought in Marquee go busto?



Second, I love the lifestyle this type of product provides, and especially the Plaza. This is a great product, and I would love to live there, but the premium does not justify the lifestyle IMO. Maybe for some, but they need to understand RE and urban economics to really have a grasp of what this product is. How many towers have been canceled again?



Third, Marquee is just now going busto. The flippers are just now starting to get burned. The Plaza is years behind, and is just now starting to see the foreclosures. You laugh at prices in the $350k-$450k range, but people laughed at me when I said we would have 1000 foreclosures in a month. I never thought it would get that bad prior to that, but it did, and it is getting worse. Use the search for northirvinerealtor, and see the flipper/flop she had. I hope she helped them get out, cuz it is about to get a hell of lot worse. Go to the tax collectors site and check how many people are behind on their taxes. Don't check Marquee, because it has gotten really bad, and they have just now reached that tax default time line.



Lastly, you are more than welcome to buy there, but if you searched here, and have an idea of what urban economics is, then you would know this is not a premium product in OC, but it should be an affordability product. Seriously, use the search button, it will open your eyes to the death spiral of the towers, Marquee and any others. You love the lifestyle, so pay for it. You think prices won't come down, but your HOA dues for SFRs are way, way too high. What you have cited as down sides are nothing, you should take the up sides and weigh them out. You still might buy there, but do not, and I mean do not think for second that they will not drop to $350k after you search here and elsewhere for what has happened to premium product towers. It ain't pretty.



Oh... and if this thread keeps going, this is just a start on wha I think about this product.
 
<em>Use the search for northirvinerealtor, and see the flipper/flop she had</em>



How soon we forget our nirvinerealtor (n....nnnnnn......not north) ;)



Hey NIR, you still lurking? We miss you.



ps- I like these towers, but not in Irvine.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1220009392][quote author="awgee" date=1220007097][quote author="freedomCM" date=1220005608]condo salesman?</blockquote>


I dunno, but the idea that you can't lose if you hold on for three to eight years to one of these losers is hilarious. In three years, they will be selling for half of what they are selling for now in real vs. nominal dollars, and in eight years, they will still be the same price.</blockquote>


I'm glad to see you are routing for the failure of these condos. There is no way a $700,000 unit here will sell for $350K or $400K. That is just not the market in Irvine (close to UCI and Newport Beach) and East Side Costa Mesa. Even in this market, regular condos are still fairing quite well in those areas. I understand that HOA dues are high, and not everyone can afford them. I do agree that even assuming the market is robust years out, there is not much room for a $700,000 or even $800,000 condo to go any higher. And certainly, this isn't a rental property. I also acknowledge that Central Park West is being planned off Michaelson and that can further dilute the market for planned condo-type communities, but even what they offer is different than the 105 unit tower at 3000 the Plaza. But let me guess, you have never even seen them. I was quite skeptical about the idea and thought buying a place here would be a sink hole and a ridiculous move. After some analysis, it appears it isn't such a bad deal. I like to think I'm smart. I get paid enough to be able to afford a place there, afterall.



And quite frankly, I rather pay more for a really nice place than a $450,000 condo that is mediocre. I'm just saying I would be willing to pay the premium for such a nice place.</blockquote>


I am not rooting for failure or sucess of these condos or any others. I am an investor, not a cheerleader. When investing, the most influential factor is the overall trend of the market you are looking at; the next is the sector; and the last is the individual investment, company, or commodity. The overall market in this case is the real estate market, and residential re will not increase in real vs. nominal dollars for at least five years. The sector in this case is the location, Orange County, which has held up relatively well, but like all higher end re markets, OC will catch up to the overall trend. The specific investment in this case is a condo and a high rise condo at that. Condos will do worse than other res. re and high rise condos, even worse. It is naive at best to consider a condo project's individual appeal when considering it's investment aspect without realizing that the majority of it's appreciation or depreciation potential has almost nothing to do with that project's particular attractions.




/




Your analysis of the attractiveness of this project appears to be well considered and it sounds like it appeals to you. But, do not kid yourself or others into thinking that your housing desires translates into a good investment. It might in NY or downtown LA or SF, but OC is a different market. My wife wants our next house to have a pool. As much as she and my daughters find pools attractive, I do not for a second kid myself into thinking that a pool adds dollar for dollar value to a res. prop. or will a pool affect the continuing crash of the re market in this cycle. When res. re in Orange County starts to appreciate, and it will, high rise condos will be some of the last properties to experience that appreciation and will appreciate the least.
 
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