paperboyNC
New member
Buyer pool cannot possibly stay constant. Price in Irvine will rise sufficiently to push buyers out if Irvine once new inventory dries up. Overall sales (new + resale) will fall significantly.
2018 Housing Prices, what are the indications?
- Thread starter shahshah
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
The buyer pool doesn't even have to grow or stay constant (which I think it will) to get that pop in prices as the decrease in the supply from the lack of new homes will be greater than any drop in the buyer pool. I do agree with you that total sales will drop significantly once the new homes are done as they make up a good portion of the sales today due to the lack of resale inventory in the sub $1m market. You can see in the resale sales volume that the buyer pool has grown over the past 5+ years as sales volume has been trending up YOY. When you add new home sales into the mix, then you see a large increase in sales volume in the past 5+ years. I do agree that as prices continue to move up, buyers will start looking at alternatives like Tustin Legacy, Baker Ranch, Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, etc.
Hard to say because it depends on the time period that you are talking about. That same 1,800-2,000sf condo could very well get above $900k in the next few years and move towards $1m as we get over $500/sf. You are already around the $500/sf mark for Petaluma/San Mateo 3-bedroom detached condos. As long as the economy keeps moving in the right direction while interest rates stay contained, we'll see more and more properties cross over the $500/sf mark in the next few years.
Yeah, maybe "pop" wasn't the best word to describe what I wanted to say...maybe a tail wind for prices would have been better.
I don't know about that. Greenwood had high MRs too and I don't think the sales pace was as fast as similar sized homes in Irvine.
From what I remember, new home tracts in Tustin always lagged behind Irvine... esp with a question mark about the schools. What Tustin Legacy should have done was not have MRs, that would have pushed it a bit better.
IIRC, Tustin Legacy stalled out while Irvine continued on during the "crash", which just shows that "brand" name still matters.
#AHyundaiIsStillAHyundai
I don't think things are that different. One school, one shopping center and one park isn't world changing.
Is it really cheaper? I remember looking at Greenwood model homes, then looking at the price sheet and MRs and thinking, for whatever the difference was (and when financing, it's not that much), I would rather be in Irvine.
That may just be me because I'm Irvine's biggest proponent but I think 97% of the birth tourism community feels the same.
What TL has to do is release products that you can't find in Irvine, homes with a 3CWG, a driveway, bigger than 5ft sideyards, no MRs, then that would get over the Hyundai stigma (just like Hyundai did with their cars). It's like what the Great Park did with their first hood, Pavilion Park, more for less... not the same for a little less. The new GP hoods are not like that anymore because the greed caught up with them, but PP was great value for the money.
To be clear, I agree that having those, finally, are great. But it will take more than just one center, one school and one sports park to change perceptions of being on a Tustin air base (part of the problems with the Great Park but they have that "Irvine" badge to fall back on).
The "one school" is an issue because you have no idea how good it will be. Irvine schools have a track record, Tustin schools, depending on where they are, is hit or miss. The "one center" is an issue if the businesses in that center don't support what new home buyers are looking for. Take Crossroads in Irvine for example. Their only saving grace is Target, all the other businesses couldn't last and it hasn't been until recently that they have actually filled the vacant locations. It's the same thing The District is facing right now, does anyone even go to the mall area? So if neither of those centers have places that people want to shop (other than Target and Costco), then it bring no value to the equation. And the value is of a shopping center is overshadowed by many other factors. GP has no center near them, yet they sell, Laguna Altura is in no man's land when it comes to a walkable shopping center and we know what happened there.
Not sure if that's the correct pricing or square footage but even at that, if a buyer's budget is $1.3m, they would probably buy the 3000sft home in Irvine than the 3850sft home in Greenwood.
It's just like when those 3CWG alley 3000sft+ new homes in Columbus Grove were selling for ~$700k... I would have rather bought the 3CWG alley 2000sft condo resale in Quail Hill for around the same price.
I think that's the Irvine mentality that many didn't account for when it came to the crash, Irvine's "brand" just has a higher desirability... why did you buy your iPhoneX for $1000+ when you could have got cheaper?
Whoaaaa this back and forth is so old school! Love it. Irvine. Til death do us part.
I think for you, Irvine's cachet doesn't matter as much so that's why Tustin works for you... however, I think you have some homer-itis going on because if you actually bought in Irvine, this conversation would never happen. It's like how PatStar (where is that guy?) fell in love with wherever he now lives and Irvine is just a distant memory (also known as Panda Syndrome).
I feel ya bruh... like when I was renting I was like "Oh renting is soooo gooood" but now I'm like "NEVAR RENT EVAR!!".
I think you still eat/shop more in Irvine so you're a closet Irvine lover.
But back to what spurred this, even when new homes are gone in Irvine... housing will still be a premium like NorCal. But yes, just like NorCal, surrounding hoods will benefit from the lack of new inventory but it's more like their prices might go up too, not Irvine prices will go down.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
paperboyNC said:
The buyer pool doesn't even have to grow or stay constant (which I think it will) to get that pop in prices as the decrease in the supply from the lack of new homes will be greater than any drop in the buyer pool. I do agree with you that total sales will drop significantly once the new homes are done as they make up a good portion of the sales today due to the lack of resale inventory in the sub $1m market. You can see in the resale sales volume that the buyer pool has grown over the past 5+ years as sales volume has been trending up YOY. When you add new home sales into the mix, then you see a large increase in sales volume in the past 5+ years. I do agree that as prices continue to move up, buyers will start looking at alternatives like Tustin Legacy, Baker Ranch, Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, etc.
IrvineBug22
New member
USC... Oh you mean pop up. I thought you meant pop and drop.
The current 3bd 1800-2000sft condo/townhouse are currently at the $800k mark where you you see a peak? I can't see more than $950k but many people tell me they see a peak for that demographic in the $1.1
The current 3bd 1800-2000sft condo/townhouse are currently at the $800k mark where you you see a peak? I can't see more than $950k but many people tell me they see a peak for that demographic in the $1.1
Burn That Belly
New member
x
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
IrvineBug22 said:
Hard to say because it depends on the time period that you are talking about. That same 1,800-2,000sf condo could very well get above $900k in the next few years and move towards $1m as we get over $500/sf. You are already around the $500/sf mark for Petaluma/San Mateo 3-bedroom detached condos. As long as the economy keeps moving in the right direction while interest rates stay contained, we'll see more and more properties cross over the $500/sf mark in the next few years.
Yeah, maybe "pop" wasn't the best word to describe what I wanted to say...maybe a tail wind for prices would have been better.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
qwerty said:
I don't know about that. Greenwood had high MRs too and I don't think the sales pace was as fast as similar sized homes in Irvine.
From what I remember, new home tracts in Tustin always lagged behind Irvine... esp with a question mark about the schools. What Tustin Legacy should have done was not have MRs, that would have pushed it a bit better.
IIRC, Tustin Legacy stalled out while Irvine continued on during the "crash", which just shows that "brand" name still matters.
#AHyundaiIsStillAHyundai
qwerty
Well-known member
Yeah but things are different now. Before the schools were an issue. Now the elementary is open and middle/school is opening in 2020. Now there is a local shopping center with a grocery store in addition to the district. More restaurants are coming to the corner of red hill/barranca (tustin flight? Always forget the name). They have actually broken ground on the veteran sports park.
Things change. Tustin legacy now and in 2006 are entirely different. I?m not saying it will sell faster than irvine. I?m saying it will sell fast because it?s a cheaper alternative, that outside of the name irvine, is very similar to irvine. Irvine will probably always be the better brand. Not arguing that. But there is no denying TL has is closing the gap.
Things change. Tustin legacy now and in 2006 are entirely different. I?m not saying it will sell faster than irvine. I?m saying it will sell fast because it?s a cheaper alternative, that outside of the name irvine, is very similar to irvine. Irvine will probably always be the better brand. Not arguing that. But there is no denying TL has is closing the gap.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
qwerty said:
I don't think things are that different. One school, one shopping center and one park isn't world changing.
Is it really cheaper? I remember looking at Greenwood model homes, then looking at the price sheet and MRs and thinking, for whatever the difference was (and when financing, it's not that much), I would rather be in Irvine.
That may just be me because I'm Irvine's biggest proponent but I think 97% of the birth tourism community feels the same.
What TL has to do is release products that you can't find in Irvine, homes with a 3CWG, a driveway, bigger than 5ft sideyards, no MRs, then that would get over the Hyundai stigma (just like Hyundai did with their cars). It's like what the Great Park did with their first hood, Pavilion Park, more for less... not the same for a little less. The new GP hoods are not like that anymore because the greed caught up with them, but PP was great value for the money.
Burn That Belly
New member
x
qwerty
Well-known member
I guess we will agree to disagree on the value of the school and local grocery store. Given Asians and high earners that would buy in TL value education so much not sure how you can say having a school not having a school is no big difference. And having lived here for 5 years without a grocery store and having to drive to Ralph?s in Tustin ranch vs driving across the street is a big difference in convenience.
In terms of being cheaper, at some point I remember looking at Stafford homes (plan 2 and 3 at around 3800 sq ft) and they were a out 400k cheaper than similar products in or orchard hills.
The last of the Stafford plan 2s have been closing for 1.25 to 1.3M for 3850 or so sq ft. I?ve stopped looking st orchard hills prices so not sure what an equivalent price would be
In terms of being cheaper, at some point I remember looking at Stafford homes (plan 2 and 3 at around 3800 sq ft) and they were a out 400k cheaper than similar products in or orchard hills.
The last of the Stafford plan 2s have been closing for 1.25 to 1.3M for 3850 or so sq ft. I?ve stopped looking st orchard hills prices so not sure what an equivalent price would be
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
qwerty said:
To be clear, I agree that having those, finally, are great. But it will take more than just one center, one school and one sports park to change perceptions of being on a Tustin air base (part of the problems with the Great Park but they have that "Irvine" badge to fall back on).
The "one school" is an issue because you have no idea how good it will be. Irvine schools have a track record, Tustin schools, depending on where they are, is hit or miss. The "one center" is an issue if the businesses in that center don't support what new home buyers are looking for. Take Crossroads in Irvine for example. Their only saving grace is Target, all the other businesses couldn't last and it hasn't been until recently that they have actually filled the vacant locations. It's the same thing The District is facing right now, does anyone even go to the mall area? So if neither of those centers have places that people want to shop (other than Target and Costco), then it bring no value to the equation. And the value is of a shopping center is overshadowed by many other factors. GP has no center near them, yet they sell, Laguna Altura is in no man's land when it comes to a walkable shopping center and we know what happened there.
Not sure if that's the correct pricing or square footage but even at that, if a buyer's budget is $1.3m, they would probably buy the 3000sft home in Irvine than the 3850sft home in Greenwood.
It's just like when those 3CWG alley 3000sft+ new homes in Columbus Grove were selling for ~$700k... I would have rather bought the 3CWG alley 2000sft condo resale in Quail Hill for around the same price.
I think that's the Irvine mentality that many didn't account for when it came to the crash, Irvine's "brand" just has a higher desirability... why did you buy your iPhoneX for $1000+ when you could have got cheaper?
qwerty
Well-known member
Yeah but your a little weird
on this board you are the most pro irvine person. You and BTB.
I bought the iPhone X because I have more money than I know what do with
I did say on that thread though that in hindsight I should have just gotten the iPhone 8. The X is over rated, just like irvine
on this board you are the most pro irvine person. You and BTB.
I bought the iPhone X because I have more money than I know what do with
I did say on that thread though that in hindsight I should have just gotten the iPhone 8. The X is over rated, just like irvine
Burn That Belly
New member
x
qwerty said:Yeah but your a little weird
on this board you are the most pro irvine person. You and BTB.
I bought the iPhone X because I have more money than I know what do with
I did say on that thread though that in hindsight I should have just gotten the iPhone 8. The X is over rated, just like irvine
Whoaaaa this back and forth is so old school! Love it. Irvine. Til death do us part.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So true.qwerty said:Yeah but your a little weird
Scoreboard. My post count pwns BTB so I win.
That's the Irvine mentality.I bought the iPhone X because I have more money than I know what do with
But you still would have got an iPhone... see?
I think for you, Irvine's cachet doesn't matter as much so that's why Tustin works for you... however, I think you have some homer-itis going on because if you actually bought in Irvine, this conversation would never happen. It's like how PatStar (where is that guy?) fell in love with wherever he now lives and Irvine is just a distant memory (also known as Panda Syndrome).
I feel ya bruh... like when I was renting I was like "Oh renting is soooo gooood" but now I'm like "NEVAR RENT EVAR!!".
I think you still eat/shop more in Irvine so you're a closet Irvine lover.
But back to what spurred this, even when new homes are gone in Irvine... housing will still be a premium like NorCal. But yes, just like NorCal, surrounding hoods will benefit from the lack of new inventory but it's more like their prices might go up too, not Irvine prices will go down.
Do you think there won't be anymore new homes in Irvine? There are so many farms and fields all the way to Laguna that can be converted into home sites.
But I don't think the new homes are the main reason Chinese or any foreigners are buying in Irvine. The city has a value of investing and also living in itself especially if you are raising kids.
For 2018 alone, I think the price will not drop. It would either stay or go up higher a bit, but not as much as 2017 IMO.
After 2018, I don't think anyone can guess that far.
But I don't think the new homes are the main reason Chinese or any foreigners are buying in Irvine. The city has a value of investing and also living in itself especially if you are raising kids.
For 2018 alone, I think the price will not drop. It would either stay or go up higher a bit, but not as much as 2017 IMO.
After 2018, I don't think anyone can guess that far.
Tustin Legacy is an awesome place to live, work, and shop and will only get better as the amenities and new homes get built out. These are not the fantastical empty promises like the ones constantly made about the Great Park, TL's practical amenities are actually going to get built. Considering Myford, Peters Canyon, Hicks Canyon, Pioneer, Orchard Hills, Beckman, etc. there is absolutely no doubt TL schools will be excellent. TL is conveniently located in the heart of OC near the 55/5/405 unlike some far flung "Irvine" neighborhoods, it is not attractive to Communists as a place to parachute in their kids and money, no coyote attacks, just a great all American place to live. And it's literally right across the street (Jamboree, Barranca) from Irvine.qwerty said: