2010 Woodbury/WB East New Home Collection

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258425160][quote author="bkshopr" date=1258383545]Prices in Irvine will not go down. The New Home Collection is giving resellers a lot of confidence. Many Chinese want to move to Irvine. Not being familiar with history of prices $375/sf benchmark sounds just fine with sack cash buyers.</blockquote>
But graphrix says FCBs are a myth.</blockquote>


It is a localized phenomenon just like Texas is not experiencing much of a bad recession.
 
Irvine deserves a premium for it's location and convenience.



Maybe that premium is only 10% for me, but it might be 30% for a FCB. It is certainly how it feels. If it stays like that, I will be forced to live somewhere else where I am feeling I am getting the right value for the money. As I said elsewhere, Ladera Ranch is another viable alternative, the main con is the location being so far from job centers in Irvine, but I can get twice as large a yard (with a salt water pool and tub) and 1,500 extra sf in the home.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1258432479]Irvine deserves a premium for it's location and convenience.



Maybe that premium is only 10% for me, but it might be 30% for a FCB. It is certainly how it feels. If it stays like that, I will be forced to live somewhere else where I am feeling I am getting the right value for the money. As I said elsewhere, Ladera Ranch is another viable alternative, the main con is the location being so far from job centers in Irvine, but I can get twice as large a yard (with a salt water pool and tub) and 1,500 extra sf in the home.</blockquote>


$288/sf (theoretical) x 130% (Chinese Sack Cash buyer premium coefficient) = $375/sf (TIC's benchmark)



The Chinese who steam fish from the lower economic sector will be the one buying the 130% price premium because they are not IHB savvy to be researching home prices while the Prime Rib roasting Chinese on this board who know about prices would not be able to afford or justified the decision to paying this high premium.
 
If we assume that the premium scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB,

why dont we assume the wealth(money) scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB?



[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258433195]

$288/sf (theoretical) x 130% (Chinese Sack Cash buyer premium coefficient) = $375/sf (TIC's benchmark)



The Chinese who steam fish from the lower economic sector will be the one buying the 130% price premium because they are not IHB savvy to be researching home prices while the Prime Rib roasting Chinese on this board who know about prices would not be able to afford or justified the decision to paying this high premium.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1258434910]If we assume that the premium scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB,

why dont we assume the wealth(money) scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB?



[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258433195]

$288/sf (theoretical) x 130% (Chinese Sack Cash buyer premium coefficient) = $375/sf (TIC's benchmark)



The Chinese who steam fish from the lower economic sector will be the one buying the 130% price premium because they are not IHB savvy to be researching home prices while the Prime Rib roasting Chinese on this board who know about prices would not be able to afford or justified the decision to paying this high premium.</blockquote></blockquote>


[quote author="roundcorners" date=1258370400]



I would have to say BK, that I have meet a lot of First Gen Irvine Chinese and they have pretty much "Americanize" the ones who came here for college do not necessarily wok their duck and steam their fish; they pretty much cook American food, such as prime rib, turkey and salmon at get-togethers; now every day cooking might be different. The Chinese families that still cook traditionally are of lower economical social status; they couldn't/didn't come here for college, and still speak mainly their native tongue. Of course you know they live in S.G. Valley, South Bay, Roland Heights, Walnut, Diamond Bar & Chino...



The 2010 collection buyers will be the second generation children of these Americanize parents. And most certainly guarantee you that they don't saute beef & broccoli or deep fry crispy chicken. Well unless they just love to cook and have an background of some sort in Chinese food (momo ^_^)</blockquote>


From RC post the fish steamers are the poor Chinese but yet they are paying a 1.3:1 premium. Yes the math does not add up.



Wealth scale should be 1.3:1 for FCB:IHB Buyers
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1258434910]If we assume that the premium scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB,

why dont we assume the wealth(money) scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB?



[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258433195]

$288/sf (theoretical) x 130% (Chinese Sack Cash buyer premium coefficient) = $375/sf (TIC's benchmark)



The Chinese who steam fish from the lower economic sector will be the one buying the 130% price premium because they are not IHB savvy to be researching home prices while the Prime Rib roasting Chinese on this board who know about prices would not be able to afford or justified the decision to paying this high premium.</blockquote></blockquote>
Paying 30% more for something that someone would only pay 10% more for does not exactly mean the former has 3x the money of the latter... at minimum... just 20% more.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258440273][quote author="rickhunter" date=1258434910]If we assume that the premium scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB,

why dont we assume the wealth(money) scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB?



[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258433195]

$288/sf (theoretical) x 130% (Chinese Sack Cash buyer premium coefficient) = $375/sf (TIC's benchmark)



The Chinese who steam fish from the lower economic sector will be the one buying the 130% price premium because they are not IHB savvy to be researching home prices while the Prime Rib roasting Chinese on this board who know about prices would not be able to afford or justified the decision to paying this high premium.</blockquote></blockquote>
Paying 30% more for something that someone would only pay 10% more for does not exactly mean the former has 3x the money of the latter... at minimum... just 20% more.</blockquote>


I am sure RickHunter was not paying attention to his post and we all knew what he meant.
 
I actually want to amend my post, paying more for something than someone else doesn't actually mean they have more wealth at all... it just means they value whatever it is more.
 
Both of you are correct! I thought that the premium percentage was pulled out of the air and didnt noticed that you had applied an actual dollar value to the premium to get the percentage.



I dont believe ALL the FCB's THAT HAVE BOUGHT have 3:1 the wealth (money) of IHB. But I'm pretty sure SOME of the FCB's THAT HAVE BOUGHT do have 3:1 or even more the wealth (money) of IHB.



[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258440732][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258440273][quote author="rickhunter" date=1258434910]If we assume that the premium scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB,

why dont we assume the wealth(money) scale is 3:1 from FCB to IHB?



[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258433195]

$288/sf (theoretical) x 130% (Chinese Sack Cash buyer premium coefficient) = $375/sf (TIC's benchmark)

</blockquote>


I am sure RickHunter was not paying attention to his post and we all knew what he meant.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="CK" date=1258372844][quote author="PANDA" date=1258370749]



LOL. CK you know me too well and you are absolutely correct about the statement you made above. Irvine's inventory is so freakin tight right now at 500, it is to the point of being ridiculous! I won't lose my focus and keep my eyes on the prize. You too CK!</blockquote>


Yep, we are still focused. I'm seriously starting to have doubts about where Irvine ultimately lands --- but still holding out *hope* for that $250/sq ft median I had convinced myself would come to pass. I'm now coming up on my 3 year anniversary of reading IHB, and thought things would be more normalized than they are by this point. I mean, seriously --- it's almost 2010 and here we are with:



- Irvine homes are down what, 10% from peak? Yeah, there are some big losers down 30%+, but overall its just not that bad here compared to surrounding areas.



- A house on our very street just sold for $365/sq ft (over asking price with multiple bids). Uh, yeah. That's great if you own on this street. Not so great if you want to own on this street.



- Shadow inventory is still, well, in the shadows



- TIC held for a couple years, and is now confident enough to roll out a boat load of new homes. They are a lot of things, but stupid business people I think not.



- And last but certainly not least --- Irvine Renter is now selling houses



So WTF? Is this it? Is this the bottom? Is the big bang we were all waiting for just a big busto?



But all that said, Panda --- even if this is it, we are still not ditching Irvine. There ARE properties here for every price range...and even if our $550k target only gets us a really nice townhouse (and it would get us that today) or an older SFR, we are fine. I'm not willing to compromise on the location. Others may feel differently, but IMO a big backyard is not worth it you are spending all your time on a commute, or live so damn far out none of your friends want to come see you on the weekends.</blockquote>


These words from above from CK are coming from a true die hard Irvine fan. When unemployment rises to 15%, mortgage rates are at 10%, DOW is at 6000 and when T-man tells everyone here that buying Irvine real estate is a loser by 2012... If $600k only buys me IPO's 1600 sq/ft detach condo or a nice townhouse in Irvine that is what I shall buy because Panda is also a die hard Irvine fan.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258441855][quote author="CK" date=1258372844][quote author="PANDA" date=1258370749]



LOL. CK you know me too well and you are absolutely correct about the statement you made above. Irvine's inventory is so freakin tight right now at 500, it is to the point of being ridiculous! I won't lose my focus and keep my eyes on the prize. You too CK!</blockquote>


Yep, we are still focused. I'm seriously starting to have doubts about where Irvine ultimately lands --- but still holding out *hope* for that $250/sq ft median I had convinced myself would come to pass. I'm now coming up on my 3 year anniversary of reading IHB, and thought things would be more normalized than they are by this point. I mean, seriously --- it's almost 2010 and here we are with:



- Irvine homes are down what, 10% from peak? Yeah, there are some big losers down 30%+, but overall its just not that bad here compared to surrounding areas.



- A house on our very street just sold for $365/sq ft (over asking price with multiple bids). Uh, yeah. That's great if you own on this street. Not so great if you want to own on this street.



- Shadow inventory is still, well, in the shadows



- TIC held for a couple years, and is now confident enough to roll out a boat load of new homes. They are a lot of things, but stupid business people I think not.



- And last but certainly not least --- Irvine Renter is now selling houses



So WTF? Is this it? Is this the bottom? Is the big bang we were all waiting for just a big busto?



But all that said, Panda --- even if this is it, we are still not ditching Irvine. There ARE properties here for every price range...and even if our $550k target only gets us a really nice townhouse (and it would get us that today) or an older SFR, we are fine. I'm not willing to compromise on the location. Others may feel differently, but IMO a big backyard is not worth it you are spending all your time on a commute, or live so damn far out none of your friends want to come see you on the weekends.</blockquote>


These words from above from CK are coming from a true die hard Irvine fan. When unemployment rises to 15%, mortgage rates are at 10%, DOW is at 6000 and when T-man tells everyone here that buying Irvine real estate is a loser by 2012... If $600k only buys me IPO's 1600 sq/ft detach condo or a nice townhouse in Irvine that is what I shall buy because Panda is also a die hard Irvine fan.</blockquote>


Why pay $600k for a townhouse or detached condo when you can buy a SFD for the same price in the older Irvine villages with a huge lot. With a big lot you can remodel and add extra footages for the Octopandamom. When you have kids you will need a yard and running over the the pocket park will get old really fast.



Living in Irvine with a big yard and your racoon family members from Fullerton will still come to visit you.



Afterall Panda's favorite bamboo only grow on dirt and not in a pot on a condo deck.
 
I also think there is a stigma in buying in places like Ladera Ranch and Aliso Viejo in regards to Mello Roos and HOAs. Sure, there are similar costs in Irvine, but they feel there is value in those costs in Irvine infrastructure and amenities whereas in LR and AV... not so much.



I think CK is actually a more hardcore Irvinite than I am... because I've actually been looking in Aliso, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo and even San Diego-- err-- Clemente (almost the same distance right?).
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258443650]I also think there is a stigma in buying in places like Ladera Ranch and Aliso Viejo in regards to Mello Roos and HOAs. Sure, there are similar costs in Irvine, but they feel there is value in those costs in Irvine infrastructure and amenities whereas in LR and AV... not so much.



I think CK is actually a more hardcore Irvinite than I am... because I've actually been looking in Aliso, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo and even San Diego-- err-- Clemente (almost the same distance right?).</blockquote>


Yes I am...trust me, I've gone through the whole process. Gone to open houses and researched schools and neighborhoods everywhere from Villa Park on down to Ladera Ranch --- but each time the answer comes back the same. I know on this board I may be in the minority in wanting nothing but Irvine --- but I am comfortable in knowing I have weighed all the options. This city is not for everyone, but for us it is the pefect mix of everything we value.
 
Forget the schools, community, blah,blah blah. Its a clean well maintained community with a large Asian population. We know it often does not go together too well ...and the close proximity to decent noodles is so worth the extra 100k.
 
I just noticed that the estimated prices have changed slightly for sonoma and carmel.



http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-And-Residences/Woodbury-Homes.aspx



Also for those who constantly bitch and complain about how overpriced irvine is and how there are too many asians and how you would never live in irvine. Well if you hate irvine so much then why are you guys constantly talking about irvine on these forums? I also remember many members hoping that psf cost would get closer to 300 psf and now that its closer to that price point i see those members wanting 250 psf.For those who buy in irvine, they obviously have their reasons and it doesn't matter if you think they are getting ripped off at whatever price point. So to all the haters, just move on with your life and move to where ever you feel is a bargain and stop with all the irvine bashing.
 
Fishy, did you take your pills this morning?



I don't feel like there's much "baching" here. The story is that Irvine is holding up extremely well and most people here can see it. Granted some see the value at current prices, it is fair for others to explain why they may or may not feel the current price points are appropriate.



As long as homes sell at current price points, there won't be much of a reduction in prices. If supply increases or demands retracts, then there might be a reduction in price to what some would think are more reasonable levels.



Have a good day!
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1258615595]Fishy, did you take your pills this morning?



I don't feel like there's much "baching" here. The story is that Irvine is holding up extremely well and most people here can see it. Granted some see the value at current prices, it is fair for others to explain why they may or may not feel the current price points are appropriate.



As long as homes sell at current price points, there won't be much of a reduction in prices. If supply increases or demands retracts, then there might be a reduction in price to what some would think are more reasonable levels.



Have a good day!</blockquote>


There may not be a lot of bashing on this thread, but ive been reading a lot of threads on this forum and there is a lot of bashing. Its the same topic over and over again. My view is if you dont like it then don't talk about and don't live in irvine. its that simple.
 
I guess it was okay for Irvine to be overpriced when everywhere else was overpriced (yes... I'm looking at you Inland Empire and geotpf) but now that those areas have dropped substantially, it's kind of hard to justify paying so much more than everywhere else.



Hence... IHO's trips to South County recently.



(why am I talking about myself in the 3rd person PANDA style?)
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258441855][quote author="CK" date=1258372844][quote author="PANDA" date=1258370749]



LOL. CK you know me too well and you are absolutely correct about the statement you made above. Irvine's inventory is so freakin tight right now at 500, it is to the point of being ridiculous! I won't lose my focus and keep my eyes on the prize. You too CK!</blockquote>


Yep, we are still focused. I'm seriously starting to have doubts about where Irvine ultimately lands --- but still holding out *hope* for that $250/sq ft median I had convinced myself would come to pass. I'm now coming up on my 3 year anniversary of reading IHB, and thought things would be more normalized than they are by this point. I mean, seriously --- it's almost 2010 and here we are with:



- Irvine homes are down what, 10% from peak? Yeah, there are some big losers down 30%+, but overall its just not that bad here compared to surrounding areas.



- A house on our very street just sold for $365/sq ft (over asking price with multiple bids). Uh, yeah. That's great if you own on this street. Not so great if you want to own on this street.



- Shadow inventory is still, well, in the shadows



- TIC held for a couple years, and is now confident enough to roll out a boat load of new homes. They are a lot of things, but stupid business people I think not.



- And last but certainly not least --- Irvine Renter is now selling houses



So WTF? Is this it? Is this the bottom? Is the big bang we were all waiting for just a big busto?



But all that said, Panda --- even if this is it, we are still not ditching Irvine. There ARE properties here for every price range...and even if our $550k target only gets us a really nice townhouse (and it would get us that today) or an older SFR, we are fine. I'm not willing to compromise on the location. Others may feel differently, but IMO a big backyard is not worth it you are spending all your time on a commute, or live so damn far out none of your friends want to come see you on the weekends.</blockquote>


These words from above from CK are coming from a true die hard Irvine fan. When unemployment rises to 15%, mortgage rates are at 10%, DOW is at 6000 and when T-man tells everyone here that buying Irvine real estate is a loser by 2012... If $600k only buys me IPO's 1600 sq/ft detach condo or a nice townhouse in Irvine that is what I shall buy because Panda is also a die hard Irvine fan.</blockquote>
For now, there is no blood on the streets of Irvine and if interest rates stay below 6% and the economy doesn't fall off a cliff, I would not look for Irvine home prices to come down more than 5-10% from current value at most. There's a good bit of demand out there for Irvine homes and the lack of inventory is causing a frenzy for desperate buyers which results in them bidding up properties due to frustration. Think about it, we went from over 1,300 homes on the market about 2 years ago to less than 500 today (2.5 month supply). That's called a strong seller's market.
 
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