<blockquote>This is why the 1:1 shaker table at SDSU is so important.</blockquote>
That would be where my dad got his degree from after attending USC for a while.
Okay, I talked to my dad and I took 3 pages of notes. A few things that folks have already mentioned were brought up by him.
- If a 7.8-7.9 quake hits, you can expect shaking for 2-2.5 minutes. He recommended I watch the following YouTube video to get an idea of how long the ground shook in China:
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- The aftershocks of such a quake could be in the 5-6.5 range and will continue to do damage.
- He said that with that level of ground shaking, objects (obviously including people) will be "tossed in the air". He said something about an equation involving gravity and something being greater than 1 and then stuff gets airborne, but I didn't really understand what he was talking about. I just got that things will leave the ground. Childhood memory: it did freak me out when I was a kid when I went with him to a job site near the San Andreas and I asked what would happen to us if a quake hit (we were in an orchard which I believe is now a tract of McMansions. Idiots.). He said we would be launched in the air. I was incredulous, and he talked about the force of the earth moving and it being greater than gravity and how yes, it would launch us in the air. Scary.
- If an earthquake hits, get away from things that can fall on you and hold on to stable things. He mentioned that the dudes in the video were okay partially because their desks were attached to the walls of their dorm room.
- The epicenter will most likely be in the Indio/Coachella Valley area, but that is only 30-40 air miles from here. He pointed out that in China, with a quake that strong, "they were evacuating highrises 800 miles away" and "they [the highrises] were swaying 800 miles away...that's up to the Oregon border".
- I said, "but what if it's not that strong of a quake?" He said that with a 7.0-7.1 quake that there will still be shaking for 20 seconds and that can do damage.
- Soil types do matter. I said "so will houses in Laguna fall down the hill?" He said that they might, but it would be due to the amount of shaking causing the supports underneath them to fail. He said that the foundation could just give out if not properly reinforced.
- He went on for a while on building height and California building codes. He said a 1 story building is better than a 2 story, and a 2 story is better than anything higher (as far as earthquake safety is concerned). The foundations in Cali are built to withstand a certain amount of shaking based on the building height. He did tell a story about a whole house that was "tossed up in the air, and when it came down we found it was 4 inches lower than it was before. The house got compressed.". He also said that with a desert epicenter and a strong quake, "the highrises in downtown LA will be swaying".
- He pointed out that California building codes focus on "life safety". The building could be basically destroyed and will need to be rebuilt, but won't fall down on the occupants. The idea is that the building needs to stay up long enough for folks to get out.
- Houses built prior the the late 1970s = bad. Flat land = good. 1 story building = good.
- Swimming pools "will have problems"
- He tried to remember the exact number, and he thought it was that there was a 56% chance of that part of the San Andreas causing a major (7.0 or greater) earthquake in the next 30 years. He again said that it's "10 months pregnant" and I said "you have been saying that since I was a kid" and he replied "well, it is...actually it's more like 11 months pregnant now".
- He then talked about how you could be fine, and your house could be fine, but the support systems around you may not be fine. He said having a 4 wheel drive vehicle could help get around on blocked roadways. Everyone will need to be prepared to live for 3-5 days without electricity, water or gas. He especially pointed out the lack of electricity being likely, but seemed to think that the gas lines could be okay. It just depends. He pointed out that your toilet isn't going to flush if the water support systems are damaged, so keep in mind "sanitary needs". He said it could be a few months before everything is back to normal again when it comes to the utilities.
- He pointed out that schools and hospitals have a higher standard of construction to withstand earthquakes.
- It will take awhile before we know if buildings and roadways are safe because "there are only so many government officials to check on them". So even though a building or road looks fine, it may be tagged until somebody can get to it to check. He said this could cause tent cities to form in parks and parking lots (this is when I asked him about the Disneyland parking structure and he seemed to think it would be okay). He said it will "disrupt life for a couple months while they check on everything". Travel may be on surface streets only for a while as we wait for the overpasses to be checked for safety.
- The ground will "tear apart" in the desert where the plates are actually moving.
- Keep part of your earthquake kit in your car as you may be stranded away from home when it hits. He told me this as a concerned father since I travel by car for business a lot. He was also concerned for my sister who lives in the desert area, but he said "but they don't have a lot of highrises out there so that's good".