Dow?

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morekaos said:
Agreed, this cycle is similar to the 1994-95 rate cycle when the Fed raised interest rates 300 basis points in 12 months it caused an inverted yield curve And a subsequent recession. Best way to trade it was a zero-coupon US government strip ladder…worked beautifully in the Mid90’s. made over 20% in a year and a half when the yield curve collapsed back to normal. Haven’t put that trade on in 30 years. Putting it on aggressively now!
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Posted that in September 2023. That trade is already up double digits and will only do better as the Dow sinks.🤷🏽‍♂️😂😂👍🏽🇺🇸
 
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zubs said:
NFLX from $360 last year to $542 one year later...today in fact.
I only bought a few thousand dollars worth so it's not anything big.
Gonna just leave it alone as it's a retirement account....Not the gambling account.

I should probably dump it...but I have been watching that Korean dating show "Singles Inferno".......it's pretty good...better than the US boobie shows.

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It hit $700 today.
Rode this ticket from $360 down to $180 and back up to $700.
 
Dow at 40k.

When I started this thread in 2011, people were doubting it would get over 13k.

At that time, new Irvine starter SFRs (real ones, not detached condos) were less than $800k

How the world has changed.
 
morekaos said:
Don’t be surprised if rate cuts are met with a market selloff. Markets tell the future not really the present day🤷🏽‍♂️👍🏽🇺🇸
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I hope you are right. I have cash that I need to put back into the market. Been getting 5% in money market funds but nowhere near as good as the SP500 YTD return
 
The stock market does not equal the economy. If you believe companies are overcharging then stop buying from them
 
Didn’t say it equals the economy, it’s an indicator. Not sure what your second comment is about… there are some things you can’t stop buying (food, gas, etc).

And let’s be honest, if someone else was in charge… they would be saying how great the economy is doing based on the stock market and other things (I would link this admission but I don’t want to get into it).

Let’s disconnect politics from this… jobless numbers are low, stock market is high, people are actually paying these higher costs whether it’s inflation or corp greed, and housing prices are still ridiculous (at least locally)… is that really a “bad” economy?
 
The stock market can be an indicator of the economy, but it can also not be. It can be a forward looking indicator of where investors think the economy will be in 6-12 months. It can be a discounted cashflow calculator that estimates the present value of future cashflow based on expected discount rates (i.e. interest rates). It can be quite irrational too. It can be a lot of things.

You might not be able to forgo buying food, but you can substitute. If you think restaurant A is charging too much for item Y, then buy item Z. If you think restaurant A is charging too much, then go to restaurant B. If you think restaurant A and B are charging too much, then buy from grocer A and cook yourself. If you think grocer A is charging too much... and so on. You have lots of choices even for categories you have to buy, though those prices are less elastic than discretionary goods. The point is you and I are not at the mercy of some single evil all powerful price gouging corporation, we have choices.

Let's actually be honest, neither you nor I know what someone else would say if they were in charge.

If you dig into the job numbers you would see things that make you go hmmm.

For example, based on the latest BLS report...
12,000 new jobs vs expectation of 100,000 new jobs. It takes 150,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth.
That's 240,000 less new jobs than last month (pre-revision)
7,000,000 unemployed Americans currently
Previous month was revised down 112,000 jobs (the media rarely reports on revisions)
17/18 revisions have been downward (what are the odds!?!)
Private sector jobs fell for the first time since 2020, 28,000 jobs lost
Public sector jobs grew 40,000, now a record high, bringing the total public sector job growth under the current administration to over 1,000,000
In the past year America has lost 50,000 manufacturing jobs, but gained 500,000 public sector jobs
In the past year native born workers have lost 800,000 jobs, entirely replaced by migrant workers.
In the last 18 months 1,300,000 full time jobs have been lost, replaced with part time jobs

This is just jobs. There's also inflation. Housing affordability. [enter zombie mode] Yes, I want more of this. This is good. Praise be fellow comrade.
 
someguy said:
Let's actually be honest, neither you nor I know what someone else would say if they were in charge
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I do. History has proven so. And current statements continue to confirm this.

I still remember during Covid when people said the economy could not recover with lockdowns. Yet here we are.

I don't think a 40k+ Dow is an indicator of a bad economy but that's just me. If you read the history of this thread, 30k was impossible.
 
I was surprised at how much smallcap outperformed largecap today.

Bitcoin related stocks is big winner today - COIN, MSTR, RIOT, CLSK, etc.
 
Some guy says Dow doesn’t equal economy. :)

50k to the moon!!!!

BTW: This is one of the positives of a Trump occupation... big business loves him.
 
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