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Gohabsgo_IHB

Gohabsgo_IHB

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<p>What does your investment portfolio looks like today?</p>

<p>Did you take all your money from the market expecting it to fall?</p>

<p>Are you shorting the market? Shorting the banks or any builder?</p>

<p>Are you under/over weighting the US market vs the World market?</p>

<p>It looks like the market isn't fully reflecting all the bad things that will happen in the next few years. If some of you predicted the housing decline, why wouldn't you short the company overvalued and make a ton of money? I don't know but it looks like there's a ton of opportunities these days. It seems risky, but is it really? Put your money where your mouth is. </p>

<p>For example CFC, the stock gained almost 40% when they reported a $1.2M quarterly loss. Look where it is now...back at $13-$14.</p>

<p>We all know that all the loans will go bad, thus banks and lenders will lose ton of money...Couldn't we predict that these companies would be downgraded? It sure looks like it after the fact.</p>

<p>What about companies who sold ARM? <a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/accounting-for-negative-amortization.html">http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/accounting-for-negative-amortization.html</a></p>

<p>I feel like I know what will happen, but I'm not taking the opportunities that I see...</p>
 
I really did panic, and did nothing as usual, I'm kinda like a Deep Sea Diver in that way, I like to run my life so I don't have to worry about stuff, for instance, I rent and I have 3250 stocks in one Company, today they are at $84, the last 52 weeks saw a low of 72 and a high of 94....



awgee, I bought gold a few years ago, do you think I did the right thing? ;-) If you're thinking of buying some I'd be willing to sell all of it to you....as an incentive I'll even put a personal license plate on the black Bentley Continental GT I'll buy with the funds , it will say.....



"THX AWGE"



We could do the transaction at Starbucks tomorrow if you like...;-)
 
<p>PeterUK - Price? Less than spot? I am always looking for a deal.</p>

<p>I'll buy you the starbucks even without the deal.</p>
 
IC....thanks for the compliment, you're not so bad yourself!! ;-)



awgee..less than spot? why? you wouldn't want to see THX AWGE on a USED Bentley would you ?



acpme, they make some awesome tooth colored restoratives for teeth these Days.
 
PeterUK, as much as I like to take credit for the compliment, I think you misunderstood me. Peet's is a coffee chain. Although I do think you are pretty good guy.
 
IC, I didn't misunderstand you, it was my Brit SOH...sorry...



Is there a Peets in Irvine? Id like to start supporting them because they Support and sponsor Cycling and the nice thing is they donate 10% of the profits of their Jerseys to charity...

http://www.peets.com/shop/essentials_cycling.asp?rdir=1&
 
i'm a big fan of peets too and didnt even know about the orchard hills location until recently. the center was dead. the cashier told me they've been open 6 months with hardly any business.
 
<p>You're right...Peets is good. Great flavor on their coffee. In case anyone didn't know, there is now technically also a Starbucks in the Orchard Hills center...inside the Pavillions. Didn't look like a full menu, but all the staples are there. They also take Starbucks gift cards.</p>
 
<p>Right now I've invested in commercial property (apartments to be exact). I have 40 units with a whopping 3.8% Cap rate this year. Next year should be about 2-3% better. I also am invested in a few "non thinking" funds and then just a few dollars for playing in the market. I also keep a few dollars liquid for me to purchse the house as well other things. </p>

<p>I too have bought gold. Nothing spectular, i got them at the start of the year....</p>

<p>good luck</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
I'm almost all cash now. I have 10% in gold since last year.



I have been both short and long equities. Recently sold BIDU and CROX for nice gains but i am now basically out of the market now. I was short homebuilders and subprime last year and made good money, but I was a little early and it scarred me for life. I will never short homebuilders and subprime and any other volatile names again. Not worth the heartache to short. For example, I shorted tol at 28, watched it go to 55, doubled up my short and it finally tanked. Took years out of my life.



I'm bearish housing and the economy, but one thing i've learned is that being bearish on anything is not a good way to accumulate wealth. I know most people here are bears like me, but please do not invest like a bear. You will be broke sooner or later. As soon as I dumbed down and started thinking like the herd, I've made alot more money investing. I also think the fed will inflate to attempt to save the economy from a housing-induced recession. Means dollar will get killed. That is why I have gold, and why I will be buying a house to "diversify" away from cash. Yes, I expect housing to drop, but I also expect the dollar to drop just as much, so it's a wash in my eyes. I also think rates are much lower than the real rate of inflation, so I will borrow 800k now, and pay back over 10-15 years with rapidly depreciating toilet paper called the dollar. Yes, I may lose my downpayment, but it was paid for by TOL and LEND shareholders.
 
<i>"I too have bought gold. Nothing spectular, i got them at the start of the year...."</i><p>


Gold was about 640 at the start of the year and is about 800 now. 25% in 10 months? Not spectacular? Well, it doesn't suck.
 
I think rtlguru expressed the emotions involved with shorting accurately. One thing that might help is to hedge any short position, or at least use a stop loss. I am stopped out of 50% of my shorts.
 
Regarding the stock and credit markets, the day that the bubble bursted was <strong>02/07/07</strong>, after this day things were not the same anymore.





That day, this is what happened:





<em>HSBC warned on Wednesday night that the prospect of rising defaults in US mortgages meant provisions for bad debts in 2006 would be $10.56bn, $1.76bn higher than previously expected byanalysts. Shares in HSBC fell 14p to 917p on the news, suggesting that many investors had already discounted increased bad debts</em>.





I remember clearly this particular news piece, the next day <strong>02/08/07</strong> the <a href="http://search.ft.com/ftArticle?startDate=01%2F02%2F2007&dsz=2&dse=true&sortBy=gadatearticle&queryText=hsbc&page=16&endDate=28%2F02%2F2007&activeTab=ftNews&resultsToReturn=10&aje=false&id=070208008315&ct=0">market took a beating</a>, I guess "smart money" selling and shorting the hell out of financials, lenders and builders stocks.





Before this specific date, the kool-aid was freely flowing. The NAR chief economist was saying things will be "normal" in Spring '07.





Ironically the morning of that day, this is what he said:





<em><a href="http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/february_forecast_ehs_to_improve.html">David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, is looking for a steady rise in existing-home sales</a>. "After reaching what appears to be the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, we expect existing-home sales to gradually rise all this year and well into 2008," he said. "New-home sales should continue to slide, but we look for that sector to turn around later in the year. When you put it all together, home sales may appear weak in comparison with the record surge in 2005, but they will be sustained at historically high levels that are in line with long-term demand."


</em>


What I can't believe, is that this guy just walked away, he just disapeared without any kind of accountability.





My point with this little research is, I've been debating and entertaining the idea of calling the <strong>exact date</strong> that things turned to the point of no return and what can I learn from this.





Back to the original topic, this was the day to short everything related to the housing market: financials, lenders, builders, etc. Had you done this, you well could be sitting on 100% gains: New Century and others. This is wishful thinking, but one lesson that I take from here is to develop a contrarian skill and well this is not news for everybody, but this proves once again to don't trust market players.





It's interesting to note that many market players were down playing what happened that day: is just profit taking. He! yeah, right!.





Also, I can't accept that some of them now are saying: who could have thought?...Hah!





Check all the stock charts related to the housing market and you'll see that 02/08/07 was the peak for 2007.
 
80 acres of Riverside County dirt


75 acres of Denver Dirt


57,500 square feet of Florida Office Space


17 houses


$1,300,000 in Asian Equities


$1,100,000 in US Equities


$300,000 of European Equities


$500,000 in Canadian Equities












 
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