Why does data show Foothill Ranch prices up 20% (vs. 2007)

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The sample size of sold properties is very small - so the numbers are easily skewed and change a lot. In January, for instance, the median was more than $700k.



Also don't forget that 43.2% of the inventory there is either a foreclosure or a short sale - things aren't magically great there.
 
They also had a condo conversion that was selling in 2005 and 2006. At one time last year the price for Foothill Ranch was down over 40%, when almost every other zip was still showing increases. Take a small data sample, and throw in a large data sample of low priced homes, and viola... the median price becomes volatile.
 
caliguy - The price of many assets can do just about anything in a one or two month time span. That is why it is so important to take with a grain of salt any of those realtor proclamations, "Traffic is rising. Offers are increasing. More escrows are opening." If you read objective analysts, you will find they use year over year figures and over a time span of a more than a few months before they reach conclusions.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1211181609]caliguy - The price of many assets can do just about anything in a one or two month time span. That is why it is so important to take with a grain of salt any of those realtor proclamations, "Traffic is rising. Offers are increasing. More escrows are opening." If you read objective analysts, you will find they use year over year figures and over a time span of a more than a few months before they reach conclusions.</blockquote>


Exactly. No surprise of course that the ZIPs with the most fluctuations in price and % increase/decrease in volume tend to be the ones with the smallest # of sales. The scary thing is when places like Laguna Niguel are in there for largest year-over-year decline in sales, because that is a significantly sized area.



The numbers are indeed your friend.
 
There is an article out today on Lansner's blog trumpeting that there were more than 2000 sales in OC for April and how this shows the bottom is in and the re market is improving. When you look a bit closer, you read April 2008 sales are 19% less than April 2007 sales. And that is an improvement? It seems that if one wants badly enough to see what one wants, one will see it.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1211239450]There is an article out today on Lansner's blog trumpeting that there were more than 2000 sales in OC for April and how this shows the bottom is in and the re market is improving. When you look a bit closer, you read April 2008 sales are 19% less than April 2007 sales. And that is an improvement? It seems that if one wants badly enough to see what one wants, one will see it.</blockquote>


Did you also notice how April 2008 sales are 46% below the average amount from '88-'07? And this is with a lot more housing stock than in the 80s and 90s.
 
I love the Foothill Ranch area. Its a close second to the Irvine/Tustin Ranch area for me. However, I never really look into their sales numbers too closely because they vary so much month to month since the sample size is so small. Also, there are lots of condos in the area, so maybe one month its lower due to many condo sales then the next month it is a lot higher due to more SFR sales.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1211157604]They also had a condo conversion that was selling in 2005 and 2006. At one time last year the price for Foothill Ranch was down over 40%, when almost every other zip was still showing increases. Take a small data sample, and throw in a large data sample of low priced homes, and viola... the median price becomes volatile.</blockquote>


A 340 unit apartment property called Tuscany at Foothill Ranch was converted to condos by a condo converter called Montecito. Lyon had sold it to the converter. The sales started in late 2005. Not sure how long it went on, but with that many units it had to take a while.
 
I started looking around redfin for that tuscany complex, because if they started converting in late 2005/early 2006, it seems they would be all underwater by now.



19431 rue de valore will bring up many places for sale. Are these conversions that have stilll not sold for the first time? Nothing seems to come up under sales history for any of them.



Tons of places seem to be on sale on chaumont circle as well. Is that an apartment conversion too?



Heres an interesting 3/2 thats priced only $242 per sq. foot. Kitchen really grosses me out though



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/139-Chaumont-Cir-92610/home/5675921
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1211254725]I started looking around redfin for that tuscany complex, because if they started converting in late 2005/early 2006, it seems they would be all underwater by now.



19431 rue de valore will bring up many places for sale. Are these conversions that have stilll not sold for the first time? Nothing seems to come up under sales history for any of them.



Tons of places seem to be on sale on chaumont circle as well. Is that an apartment conversion too?



Heres an interesting 3/2 thats priced only $242 per sq. foot. Kitchen really grosses me out though



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/139-Chaumont-Cir-92610/home/5675921</blockquote>


The main address for the Tuscany property is 19431 Rue De Valore, so it sounds like you are looking at the right property. I think the Chaumont Circle stuff is a different property.



The company that did the conversion is called Montecito Property Company. If you go to their website - www.montecitodirect.com - it shows that they are sold out at Tuscany.



So you must be looking at re-sales, and they are likely all under water. Not sure why you can't find previous sales info.



Montecito's strategy was always to slightly underprice so that they could sell them very quickly. They did the same thing on big projects right at the same time in Yorba Linda and Laguna Niguel - all properties that they bought from Lyon. So I guess it's possible that buyer's aren't too far underwater. Though I doubt they would have discounted anywhere near 25%, so I would suspect they are all deep underwater.
 
Wow, so far, in the last month alone, there has been two units on Rue De Valore that went back to the bank. And, there are four more scheduled for the auction this month. I never knew that was the address of that condo conversion, but these are just a few of the foreclosures there, because I have seen that address come up a lot. With that amount of foreclosures, once they become REO and sold, they will drag down the median in Foothill again.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1211239450]There is an article out today on Lansner's blog trumpeting that there were more than 2000 sales in OC for April and how this shows the bottom is in and the re market is improving. When you look a bit closer, you read April 2008 sales are 19% less than April 2007 sales. And that is an improvement? It seems that if one wants badly enough to see what one wants, one will see it.</blockquote>


I was reading that thread too, and I am constantly amazed at the cognitive dissonance of the bullish posters there. They have so trained their minds to interpret all data as bullish that they can even manage to find a bullish spin on numbers that are clearly and overwhelmingly bearish. Then they create this bizarre echo chamber where they all agree with each others bullshit and believe they have somehow triumphed over something (I guess they beat the bears.) Somebody really should do a psychological case study on these people. I can't even get myself to post over there as I believe it would be more productive to talk to a brick.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1211266298]Wow, so far, in the last month alone, there has been two units on Rue De Valore that went back to the bank. And, there are four more scheduled for the auction this month. I never knew that was the address of that condo conversion, but these are just a few of the foreclosures there, because I have seen that address come up a lot. With that amount of foreclosures, once they become REO and sold, they will drag down the median in Foothill again.</blockquote>


It would be interesting to track how conversions do, I would be almost certain that they will underperform the market due to the quantity of buyer's who bought at the peak with toxic financing, and the amount of buyers that were likely investors/flippers. Likely to be a lot of foreclosures.



The Yorba Linda conversion was almost 300 units and it was at 5150 Twilight Canyon Road. Laguna Niguel had 2 at 25261 Via Lido (about 100 units) and 30902 Club House Drive (almost 300 units). There were 2 more in Aliso Viejo and 1 in Laguna Hills. I think that's it for south county. Several more in north county.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1211266383]I was reading that thread too, and I am constantly amazed at the cognitive dissonance of the bullish posters there. They have so trained their minds to interpret all data as bullish that they can even manage to find a bullish spin on numbers that are clearly and overwhelmingly bearish. <strong>Then they create this bizarre echo chamber where they all agree with each others bullshit and believe they have somehow triumphed over something (I guess they beat the bears.)</strong> Somebody really should do a psychological case study on these people. I can't even get myself to post over there as I believe it would be more productive to talk to a brick.</blockquote>


It must be fun to agree with yourself if you are a bull too.
 
Foothill Ranch is getting absolutely pancaked right now. They are lying on their back with their face smothered by the sumo wrestlers stomach. A friend bought in April 2005 for 696k and a model match was just foreclosed 4 houses down for 599k.
 
Thanks for the info. I just looked on a map and Foothill is a very small city. In fact, it isn't even really a city. It is a "census-designated place" with its own zip code (sort of like a sub-city within a city). Looks like it is technically part of Lake Forest, the same way that Corona del Mar is part of Newport Beach. Ditto for Portola Hills too. Anyhow, as I guessed, the numbers are a fluke... and as someone else said, the sample size is so small it skews everything. Reminds me of those "4 out 5 coffee drinkers like Foldger's Crystals" commercials where it was a total of just 4 people that needed a coffee fix and the only coffee brands available were Foldger's and Sanka. :)
 
I don't know if this is of any concern, but the Nissan dealership in RSM closed Friday, right on the heels of the Dodge/Jeep dealer in Foothill Ranch closing about a month ago, right behind the Pontiac/GMC/Buick dealership in Foothill Ranch about four months ago.



A short 24 months ago the Dodge/Jeep dealer was #1 in the region with a bullet.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1211312535]I don't know if this is of any concern, but the Nissan dealership in RSM closed Friday, right on the heels of the Dodge/Jeep dealer in Foothill Ranch closing about a month ago, right behind the Pontiac/GMC/Buick dealership in Foothill Ranch about four months ago.



A short 24 months ago the Dodge/Jeep dealer was #1 in the region with a bullet.</blockquote>


I was surprised when one of those dealers in Foothill Ranch showed up on Foreclosureradar (I believe it was the Dodge/Jeep one). Easy one to spot since the $ amounts involved were so high .



<blockquote>Laguna Niguel had 2 at 25261 Via Lido (about 100 units) and 30902 Club House Drive (almost 300 units). </blockquote>


The Club House drive conversion is a warzone. HUGE mass of foreclosures that have and will be going back to the bank very shortly. One of the conversions in Aliso Viejo I know about is Canyon Villas - they have been trying to sell their units (HURRY ONLY XX LEFT!) for a few years now but nobody wants them. Values are down there a bunch.
 
[quote author="code7700" date=1211277615]Thanks for the info. I just looked on a map and Foothill is a very small city. In fact, it isn't even really a city. It is a "census-designated place" with its own zip code (sort of like a sub-city within a city). Looks like it is technically part of Lake Forest, the same way that Corona del Mar is part of Newport Beach. Ditto for Portola Hills too. Anyhow, as I guessed, the numbers are a fluke... and as someone else said, the sample size is so small it skews everything. Reminds me of those "4 out 5 coffee drinkers like Foldger's Crystals" commercials where it was a total of just 4 people that needed a coffee fix and the only coffee brands available were Foldger's and Sanka. :)</blockquote>


I believe you are correct. I recall that Lake Forest (aka "El Toro") annexed Portola Hills, and I think it also annexed Foothill Ranch. Those two communities are sort of like Corona Del Mar and Newport Beach, in that the once unincorporated county area having a separate place name was annexed by an incorporated city, but kept the original name.
 
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