Gohabsgo_IHB
New member
Home prices have been dropping at an alarming rate. Have they?
Remember this post from IR, <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/how-bad-could-bad-get/">How Bad Could Bad Get?</a>?
1/1/2007 prices were at $687,000 and projected to be at $519,400 on 4/1/2007. I can't find any good Irvine only data. However, I've found this from <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/sales-median-http-2032524-ocregister-www">Dataquick</a>.
Irvine 92602 $649,000 -13.50% 22 -47.60% $750,289
Irvine 92603 $1,105,000 46.20% 26 -10.30% $755,814
Irvine 92604 $550,000 -9.10% 17 -41.40% $605,061
Irvine 92606 $560,000 -14.50% 17 -26.10% $654,971
Irvine 92612 $437,500 -22.60% 18 -63.30% $565,245
Irvine 92614 $672,500 22.30% 9 -67.90% $549,877
Irvine 92618 $489,000 -5.10% 17 -32.00% $515,279
Irvine 92620 $698,500 -5.50% 28 -42.90% $739,153
I am concerned about the quality of this data. If the mix of low-end/high-end home sales changes, the median becomes an inaccurate tracker of home price changes.
Anyhow, it seems like the market will go way down. It might be worse than anyone would have thought. You can't feel the impact of all the foreclosures yet. Soon they will be everywhere and banks will start unloading them in the market causing a new wave of price reduction.
My new prediction would be a total drop of 45%-50%. Adjust this for inflation and homes will have lost 60% from their peak. Stay tuned!
What's your new prediction?
Remember this post from IR, <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/how-bad-could-bad-get/">How Bad Could Bad Get?</a>?
1/1/2007 prices were at $687,000 and projected to be at $519,400 on 4/1/2007. I can't find any good Irvine only data. However, I've found this from <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/sales-median-http-2032524-ocregister-www">Dataquick</a>.
Irvine 92602 $649,000 -13.50% 22 -47.60% $750,289
Irvine 92603 $1,105,000 46.20% 26 -10.30% $755,814
Irvine 92604 $550,000 -9.10% 17 -41.40% $605,061
Irvine 92606 $560,000 -14.50% 17 -26.10% $654,971
Irvine 92612 $437,500 -22.60% 18 -63.30% $565,245
Irvine 92614 $672,500 22.30% 9 -67.90% $549,877
Irvine 92618 $489,000 -5.10% 17 -32.00% $515,279
Irvine 92620 $698,500 -5.50% 28 -42.90% $739,153
I am concerned about the quality of this data. If the mix of low-end/high-end home sales changes, the median becomes an inaccurate tracker of home price changes.
Anyhow, it seems like the market will go way down. It might be worse than anyone would have thought. You can't feel the impact of all the foreclosures yet. Soon they will be everywhere and banks will start unloading them in the market causing a new wave of price reduction.
My new prediction would be a total drop of 45%-50%. Adjust this for inflation and homes will have lost 60% from their peak. Stay tuned!
What's your new prediction?