monekoko -
The answer is easy. In the future! Generically, we'd assume a certain level of mortgage resets, etc., that will create financial pressure for current owners to get out of a burdensome home... but it all depends on the particulars of the individual homeowner. Believe it or not, but there are probably a strong number of either "cash buyers" or families intended to remain in the home for the long haul, which will create resistance to price reductions. The key is to see the make-up of the owners of individual properties. For example, Tripleleaf is probably someone in over their head. Same thing for 64 WindingWay and 50 WindingWay. The trick will be exactly how many of these homes become available and when. Additionally, the trick will be your relative price equilibrium - price paid and the cost of the money use use (if at all) to finance your purchase, versus changes in the home purchase variables. I'd really recommend constructing a relative cost model using current prices and a current interest rate that you actually qualify for... and then expand on the table to account for both a percentage in home price reduction as well as a potential increase in the interest rate for your proposed financing.
For example, a million dollar purchase today @ 6% on an 80% mortgage may be roughly equivalent to a 900K purchase @ 7% on an 80% mortgage... (just rough figures...)
That way you will be able to identify a value at any point in time relative to the values you see today....and at the end of the day, it really is all about the relative value of the purchase. It really is worth spending an hour figuring out the relative value of various hypothetical purchases... remember, inflation is coming, and future reductions in home prices will be met by (an arguably comensurate) increase in mortgage rates... so a mere reduction in price may not provide value (unless rates increase at a reduced velocity comapred with home price reductions)
GUII
