When are we going to see mortgages rates going up to 8-10%

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PANDA_IHB

PANDA_IHB

New member
I agree with Irvine Renter that the best time to buy your Irvine home is when interest rates are high and home prices are low. 2009 is definitely too early to buy in Irvine. I am afraid with the government's stimulus package and low mortgage rates, home prices in Irvine and the rest of OC may be just flat-line for the rest of the year (down 5 - 10%). I just don't see the 20% drop in Irvine happening until we see mortgage rates reach 8 - 10%. The question is how soon are we going to see 8 - 10% mortgage rates? How many of you forsee the biggest drops occuring for Irvine between 2011 - 2013, and not in 2009 - 2010?



For example: Manzanita Plan 2 in Portola Springs was selling for $804,900 in Jan 7, 2008. As of Jan 7, 2009 that same model is still selling for $804,900. Manzanita dropped 0% for one entire year. Did i tell you that zip code 92618 actually was in positive territory in 2008?



$804,900 for a freakin 2500 square feet detached condo with crazy HOAs and 1.9% Tax (serious wallet drainer)...!!!



I feel it in my gut that 2011 - 2013 is probably going to be the bottom. Are most of you guys planning to wait this long? I really hope that mortgage rates start to make some strong moves upward before end of this year.



I love Awgee's plan to join the elite FCBs by putting 100% down when mortgages rates shoot up to 8 - 10% between 2011 - 2013. I know that is the way to do it, but I don't know if i have Awgee's patience.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1231410215]I agree with Irvine Renter that the best time to buy your Irvine home is when interest rates are high and home prices are low. 2009 is definitely too early to buy in Irvine. I am afraid with the government's stimulus package and low mortgage rates, home prices in Irvine and the rest of OC may be just flat-line for the rest of the year (down 5 - 10%). I just don't see the 20% drop in Irvine happening until we see mortgage rates reach 8 - 10%. The question is how soon are we going to see 8 - 10% mortgage rates? How many of you forsee the biggest drops occuring for Irvine between 2011 - 2013, and not in 2009 - 2010?



For example: Manzanita Plan 2 in Portola Springs was selling for $804,900 in Jan 7, 2008. As of Jan 7, 2009 that same model is still selling for $804,900. Manzanita dropped 0% for one entire year. Did i tell you that zip code 92618 actually was in positive territory in 2008?



$804,900 for a freakin 2500 square feet detached condo with crazy HOAs and 1.9% Tax (serious wallet drainer)...!!!



I feel it in my gut that 2011 - 2013 is probably going to be the bottom. Are most of you guys planning to wait this long? I really hope that mortgage rates start to make some strong moves upward before end of this year.



I love Awgee's plan to join the elite FCBs by putting 100% down when mortgages rates shoot up to 8 - 10% between 2011 - 2013. I know that is the way to do it, but I don't know if i have Awgee's patience.</blockquote>


No one has Awgee's patience, including Awgee.
 
For the average person,



The best time to buy is when you can afford to do so!



Dont overthink or make things more complicated than that...
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1231459463]For the average person,



The best time to buy is when you can afford to do so!



Dont overthink or make things more complicated than that...</blockquote>


That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well. The idea that it is overthinking to consider factors other than affordability sounds like more realtor nonsense.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1231469277]<img src="http://www.preconstructionprograms.com/real_estate/florida/images/conventional_fixed_mortgage_rate.png" alt="" /></blockquote>


Does anyone know what money market rates were paying between 1982 and 1984?
 
I think what's stupid is people sitting around trying to ask/predict/answer the following...like they know it to be true.



1. Mortgage Rates going up in 2011?

2. Market bottoming in 2011?

3. When's the best time to buy?



The overthinking part implies that one should not try to PREDICT the future!



And has nothing to do with what's best for yourself because only you would know that.



[quote author="awgee" date=1231462262][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231459463]For the average person,



The best time to buy is when you can afford to do so!



Dont overthink or make things more complicated than that...</blockquote>


That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well. The idea that it is overthinking to consider factors other than affordability sounds like more realtor nonsense.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1231462262]

That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well.</blockquote>


Rather well for who? If you pay $2,500/month for rent you just threw $120,000 out the door since 2005. Congratulations, you're a genius.
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1231471708]I think what's stupid is people sitting around trying to ask/predict/answer the following...like they know it to be true.



1. Mortgage Rates going up in 2011?

2. Market bottoming in 2011?

3. When's the best time to buy?



The overthinking part implies that one should not try to PREDICT the future!



And has nothing to do with what's best for yourself because only you would know that.



[quote author="awgee" date=1231462262][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231459463]For the average person,



The best time to buy is when you can afford to do so!



Dont overthink or make things more complicated than that...</blockquote>


That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well. The idea that it is overthinking to consider factors other than affordability sounds like more realtor nonsense.</blockquote></blockquote>


It is stupid to insist that one has to PREDICT the future in order to time markets. One has to be able to objectively analyze, not predict.

Mortgage rates will go up. I do not know exactly when, but knowing exactly when is unnecessary.

2009 is not the bottom for the re market, nor is 2010. You can say I do not know all you want, but so far I have done much better than those who have listened to realtors tell them they can't predict the market and the best time to buy is when they can afford it.

The best time to buy depends on many factors, not just when you can afford it. I could afford to buy in 2006 and would have lost who knows how much percentage by now. That would not have been the best time to buy.



Our schools really need to teach logic, logical fallacy, and critical thinking.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1231477034][quote author="awgee" date=1231462262]

That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well.</blockquote>


Rather well for who? If you pay $2,500/month for rent you just threw $120,000 out the door since 2005. Congratulations, you're a genius.</blockquote>


If you are basing your definition of genius of whether I have accumulated wealth rather than lost it as a result of selling in 2005, investing, and leasing, (for a hell of alot more than $2,500), than I am a genius.

Personally, I would not define genius in that manner, as there are folks who post here who I know are way smarter than me, and they have probably accumulated less wealth in the past few years, but you are not one of them.



Just a guess; you have been wisely investing in paying interest on a mortgage and paying down principal on a depreciating asset, when you could been leasing for half whatever it is you are spending. Brilliant.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1231477398][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231471708]I think what's stupid is people sitting around trying to ask/predict/answer the following...like they know it to be true.



1. Mortgage Rates going up in 2011?

2. Market bottoming in 2011?

3. When's the best time to buy?



The overthinking part implies that one should not try to PREDICT the future!



And has nothing to do with what's best for yourself because only you would know that.



[quote author="awgee" date=1231462262][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231459463]For the average person,



The best time to buy is when you can afford to do so!



Dont overthink or make things more complicated than that...</blockquote>


That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well. The idea that it is overthinking to consider factors other than affordability sounds like more realtor nonsense.</blockquote></blockquote>


It is stupid to insist that one has to PREDICT the future in order to time markets. One has to be able to objectively analyze, not predict.

Mortgage rates will go up. I do not know exactly when, but knowing exactly when is unnecessary.

2009 is not the bottom for the re market, nor is 2010. You can say I do not know all you want, but so far I have done much better than those who have listened to realtors tell them they can't predict the market and the best time to buy is when they can afford it.

The best time to buy depends on many factors, not just when you can afford it. I could afford to buy in 2006 and would have lost who knows how much percentage by now. That would not have been the best time to buy.



Our schools really need to teach logic, logical fallacy, and critical thinking.</blockquote>


Huh? Panda's posting is



When are we going to see mortgages rates going up to 8-10%



What kind of data and analysis are you going to use to answer this? It's called a PREDICTION and it's a worthless one.



My decision to sit and wait has nothing to do with timing the market...blah blah blah

I dont need analysis etc. to know that I dont want to pay this current price.

Does it have to be more complicated than that?



On the otherhand, if someobody came to me and asked me, when it's the best time to buy in general...

I'm going to say..



WHEN YOU CAN AFFORD IT!
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1231477034]



Rather well for who? If you pay $2,500/month for rent you just threw $120,000 out the door since 2005. Congratulations, you're a genius.</blockquote>


i agree with AI. if you had bought that home instead of renting, you wouldn't have lost any money since 2005. i am of course referring to real estate in the bizarro world.
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1231479297][quote author="awgee" date=1231477398][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231471708]I think what's stupid is people sitting around trying to ask/predict/answer the following...like they know it to be true.



1. Mortgage Rates going up in 2011?

2. Market bottoming in 2011?

3. When's the best time to buy?



The overthinking part implies that one should not try to PREDICT the future!



And has nothing to do with what's best for yourself because only you would know that.



[quote author="awgee" date=1231462262][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231459463]For the average person,



The best time to buy is when you can afford to do so!



Dont overthink or make things more complicated than that...</blockquote>


That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well. The idea that it is overthinking to consider factors other than affordability sounds like more realtor nonsense.</blockquote></blockquote>


It is stupid to insist that one has to PREDICT the future in order to time markets. One has to be able to objectively analyze, not predict.

Mortgage rates will go up. I do not know exactly when, but knowing exactly when is unnecessary.

2009 is not the bottom for the re market, nor is 2010. You can say I do not know all you want, but so far I have done much better than those who have listened to realtors tell them they can't predict the market and the best time to buy is when they can afford it.

The best time to buy depends on many factors, not just when you can afford it. I could afford to buy in 2006 and would have lost who knows how much percentage by now. That would not have been the best time to buy.



Our schools really need to teach logic, logical fallacy, and critical thinking.</blockquote>


Huh? Panda's posting is



When are we going to see mortgages rates going up to 8-10%



What kind of data and analysis are you going to use to answer this? It's called a PREDICTION and it's a worthless one.



My decision to sit and wait has nothing to do with timing the market...blah blah blah

I dont need analysis etc. to know that I dont want to pay this current price.

Does it have to be more complicated than that?



On the otherhand, if someobody came to me and asked me, when it's the best time to buy in general...

I'm going to say..



WHEN YOU CAN AFFORD IT!</blockquote>


That is probably why no one asks you.
 
<blockquote>On the otherhand, if someobody came to me and asked me, when it?s the best time to buy in general?

I?m going to say..



WHEN YOU CAN AFFORD IT!</blockquote>


That is very short sighted almost stupid statement.



What you could buy for 700k two years ago is much less desirable then what you could buy today for that.



So you are saying don't worry about the value of what you can buy. I guess if you want less house for more money that is a great philosophy.



I bet the people that could afford to buy a home two years ago and took that advice are not to happy today!
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1231477034][quote author="awgee" date=1231462262]

That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well.</blockquote>


Rather well for who? If you pay $2,500/month for rent you just threw $120,000 out the door since 2005. Congratulations, you're a genius.</blockquote>


Agreed. The housing bubble has made EVERYONE who was part of the first-time-buyer pool the past 8 years spend more money on keeping a roof over their head and will continue to do so for the forseable future. This is in comparison to if the lending environment had been the normal, sane 20% down, 28% DTI on a 30 year fixed. Renting really is "throwing money away". Although renters have been throwing a lot less of it away compared to the homedebtors during this bubble.



Thank your leaders for this situation. Yet, incumbants were recently voted back into office, so I guess everyone is okay with the situation.
 
[quote author="trrenter" date=1231480142]<blockquote>On the otherhand, if someobody came to me and asked me, when it?s the best time to buy in general?

I?m going to say..



WHEN YOU CAN AFFORD IT!</blockquote>


That is very short sighted almost stupid statement.



What you could buy for 700k two years ago is much less desirable then what you could buy today for that.



So you are saying don't worry about the value of what you can buy. I guess if you want less house for more money that is a great philosophy.



I bet the people that could afford to buy a home two years ago and took that advice are not to happy today!</blockquote>


He must mean something else.

Otherwise, should you buy a new car because you can afford it?

A new airplane?

Skateboard?

Nursery?

Trip to Europe?

Refridgerator?

Affordability is only one factor of many when deciding on making a purchase and to try and simplify the process to just one factor is ... , well ..., stupid.

RickHunter is not stupid, so either he means something else, or he has just not thought this through.
 
[quote author="Major Schadenfreude" date=1231480557][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1231477034][quote author="awgee" date=1231462262]

That is just plain stupid. Many of us can afford to buy now and have been able to buy since 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. And waiting to buy is working out rather well.</blockquote>


Rather well for who? If you pay $2,500/month for rent you just threw $120,000 out the door since 2005. Congratulations, you're a genius.</blockquote>


Agreed. The housing bubble has made EVERYONE who was part of the first-time-buyer pool the past 8 years spend more money on keeping a roof over their head and will continue to do so for the forseable future. This is in comparison to if the lending environment had been the normal, sane 20% down, 28% DTI on a 30 year fixed. Renting really is "throwing money away". Although renters have been throwing a lot less of it away compared to the homedebtors during this bubble.



Thank your leaders for this situation. Yet, incumbants were recently voted back into office, so I guess everyone is okay with the situation.</blockquote>


You can call it whatever you want, but more than once I have calculated the difference between renting and owning and when figuring everything, including ROI, renting is throwing less money away right now. I don't get it. Haven't you read any of IRs articles on the cost of renting vs. owning? There are cross points at which one becomes more or less expensive than the other.
 
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