Westpark: Price Per Sq Ft....why is it holding?

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optimusprime_IHB

optimusprime_IHB

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I'm currently living in a Westpark area IAC apartment and have been watching the market to see price patterns etc and pretty much just being an observer with no intention to purchase until late 2009 or 2010 at the earliest.





Anyways, my question for some of you more knowledgeable folks here...why are sooo many Westpark homes on the market being priced at an average of $400 per sq ft??





I see the newTustin Fields averaging $320 per sq ft., Columbus Grove around $350 and a little further away Northwood at around a $350 average.





I really love the Westpark area...Mediterranean style homes, convenient shopping plazas, easy access to the freeway, plenty of parks.





I'm hoping by late 2009-10, the average Westpark home will drop to $300-$320 range per sq/ft ($600-$650k)...is this possible or is it just wishful thinking?
 
IPO, thx for the reply.....yeah REOs would definitely help accelerate the decline.





However, just wondering what your opinion is as far as the Westpark area (I like the Paseo Westpark part).





Where do you see prices possibly dropping to in 2009, 2010, 2011 etc





Do you think I will ever see the $600-650k level over the next 18-24 months?
 
<p>I've been watching the Paseo Westpark (in addition to Northwood Pointe) area very closely as well, sounds like optimus and I might be shopping for the same house. Things are moving very slowly in these two areas, probably because they were built out and originally sold at the bottom (96-00), and many that bought during those times are not in distress and don't need to sell. That said, I think making the leap that these areas will never fall would be incorrect --- they are and will not be immune any more than other areas of Irvine --- It's just that there is more must move inventory in the newer areas. </p>

<p>I'm looking for $250-$280 sq foot in Paseo Westpark and Northwood Pointe.</p>
 
CK, I agree with your "sold at bottom" comment. This is why I think I'll be hard pressed to get $300 sq ft prices....I would throw a party at the $250-280 level!





Most of the current residents have huge equity cushions since these properties were sold for $300k on average back in the late 90s build out.





Ugh!
 
<p>Did you see 56 Calavera? I was hoping that one would drop to $650k or $270 sq ft by some twist of fate (It was priced at $856k or something like that). Alas, last time I checked it was pulled off the market.</p>
 
CK...yeah I saw that posted on IHB and on redfin. It's a nice place, and I would love to have it one day come down to $650k.





It's actually one of the bigger units at 2,400 sq ft.





BTW....at $860k ..it's being priced at about $360. If it were really to come down to $260 sq ft, we're looking at a 30% drop. Sorry I just don't see that happening, I can see another 15-20% which would reach the $300 sq ft level.
 
<p>I live close to it, so i'm currently driving by and checking it. Hopefully it will get better over time, but there seem to be people who are stable there and have been able to pay for it. We'll see. </p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
<p>Westpark will fall, just like the other neighborhoods. I think 15-20% more. </p>

<p>Tustin Field and VoC will drive it down. Woodbridge will drive it down. The volume there has been light, but relocations always happen, divorces always happen, sadly, deaths always happen... Those things are inevitable.</p>
 
Funny CK...look back at the Calavera pad comments..





<img onclick="collapseThread("div-comment-54513")" src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/plugins/briansthreadedcomments.php?image=spacer.png" class="collapseicon" alt="" /> <cite>Comment by OptimusPrime</cite>





2008-02-22 06:26:14





<p>Westpark…one of my favs in Irvine.</p>

<p>I actually like this home and did remember the $1mm+ tag.</p>

<p>I’d definitely be an interested buyer at $700k. A sub $300 sq/ft</p>





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2008-02-22 09:32:04





<p>I posted this one on the forums as one I would like (and think something like this will fall back to $600’s eventually). For $700k I would cancel all my meetings and go sign on the dotted line today. And stay here for 20 years.</p>





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VOC Mcmansion is cheaper to build per sf than the smaller houses in Westpark. A 3,500 sf VOC house has just many kitchen and baths as the smaller 1,400 sf Westpark homes. Most of the cost is in the plumbing and kitchen cabinets. Builders know the trick by increasing hallways and bedroom area but keeping the bath count at minimum. A bigger home in VOC is simply more 2x4s and cheap drywalls. The most expensive items are amortized over the larger footage thus reducing the value ratio.



The bigger picture is really sellers' confidence in both is different. VOC's prices went downhill because builder like Lennar has already handed out the pink slips and the death sentence verdict is in while the Irvine villages have not seen any pink slips due to TICs postponing all its project so there is a glimpse of hope out there for sellers to sell homes for WTF prices.

The pricing game is not over in Irvine Villages until the fat lady sings (TIC) and in the meanwhile home sellers are testing the water hoping to find that blinded knife catcher who has not found IHB.



When I am not savvy about RE I would buy in Irvine Villages for price protection knowing that TIC's has a vested interest in protecting its future land asset by stabilizing pricing of the existing market. Other smaller communities like Talega, Ladera, and VOC are too small to sustain their economy while IMO the area of Irvine is big and its economy could be manipulated by the monopoly of TIC. No town will escape the bad economy but in Irvine there is a little bit more insulation than others.
 
<p>Relative lack of foreclosures problems on WP2 places:</p>

<p><img style="WIDTH: 453px; HEIGHT: 405px" height="304" alt="" width="357" src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/wp2.jpg" /></p>
 
2 Calavera just closed at $880,000 -- $366.67 per Sq Ft. based on the listed 2,400 Sq. Ft., which is from the tax records. The builder info. has this model at only 2,159 Sq. Ft.
 
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