Was 2009 the bottom in Irvine?

[irvinehomeowner]

I've read that in multiple places but it doesn't feel like it to me.

Seems like the houses in the range I'm looking at now (3br+/2ba+/>1750sf/newer) are cheaper than they were in 2009 (both in Irvine, Tustin Ranch and other South OC cities).

Planet Reality says 2009 was the bottom, Bob Phillips the realtor on Redfin forums says 2009 was the bottom, Panda says it was the bottom... my anecdotal evidence says otherwise.

What are you guys seeing?

 

[usctrojancpa]

I've read that in multiple places but it doesn't feel like it to me.

Seems like the houses in the range I'm looking at now (3br+/2ba+/>1750sf/newer) are cheaper than they were in 2009 (both in Irvine, Tustin Ranch and other South OC cities).

Planet Reality says 2009 was the bottom, Bob Phillips the realtor on Redfin forums says 2009 was the bottom, Panda says it was the bottom... my anecdotal evidence says otherwise.

What are you guys seeing?

Depends on the floor plan and village you are talking about.  Some villages are above 2009 while others are starting to fall below.  Plus, home prices outside of Irvine are now below the 2009 lows.

 

[IndieDev]

Depends on the hood. I think in general people will be asking themselves next year why they thought 2009 was the bottom based on the numbers recently.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So it's a year later and I'm still wondering what is going on so I added a poll for it.

If 2009 wasn't the bottom, according to the responses to IR2's poll (http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,3295.0.html), we are at the bottom now.

In retrospect, the housing that I was particularly interested in never took the dive that was predicted. Sure, there were some (or one) that took a hit in value... but for the most part, there wasn't a 40% drop... or even a 20% drop. In 2005, when we were shopping 3CWG homes in Westpark II, they ranged from $900k to $1mil, now, in 2012, those homes range from about $850k to $1mil... not that big of a drop. The $1m+ Quail Hill homes I"ve been eyeing in 2008 (Tapestry models), are still $1m. There was one for around $900k but that had its kitchen ripped out. Considering they originally sold in 2003/4 for high $700ks... they never dipped below $900k. Seems like most of the newer hoods took less hits... and this is not to say there weren't significant drops.... but they weren't as numerous as people thought they would be.

So if this is the bottom... that 20% discount we thought we would get by selling is probably not going to happen.

 

[irvineshadow]

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/home-378506-million-including.html

the former owner of this property says we bottomed  8)

 

[traceimage]

We bought in 2009, and just from my casual observations of the market, prices seem to have dropped a bit since then.

 

[dethman]

we bought in 2009 and prices have gone up about 5% since.

 

[davenlei]

We bought in 2009, and just from my casual observations of the market, prices seem to have dropped a bit since then.

I think prices are very dependent on specific area if not specific plan/house dependent.  We bought in late 2009 (Laguna Niguel) as well and regular sale houses have been selling in our neighborhood for around 15% more than I paid (of course there are a couple short sale/REO outliers).

 

[cubiczirconia]

Bought at the end of 08 in a short sale, and so far, we are the bottom for the neighborhood. I think 09 was the generic bottom, and West Irvine bottomed this January.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Bought at the end of 08 in a short sale, and so far, we are the bottom for the neighborhood. I think 09 was the generic bottom, and West Irvine bottomed this January.

Yup, it really looks like West Irvine hit bottom in last 2011/early 2012.  My home appraised for over $700k when I did my refi a few months ago.