Verandas Phase 1 Sold Out

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hbunny_IHB

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<p>We learned that Verandas Phase 1 Sold Out in its first release today - every single unit and people are lining up for more. People ARE buying homes. Why would prices tank when people are buying?</p>
 
hbunny, I agree with you, it seems that people really ARE buying these overpriced boxes! As I indicated on the Sendero thread, the parking lot was full and overflowing into the streets for this morning's sales debut in Portola Springs. I wish there was some way to see the financial metrics for all these contract signings. What are their incomes? Their down payments? The loan packages they are using?



I am thinking more and more about Orchard Hills, to the right of Northwood HS, in 2008/2009, price be damned. It's where I want to live and raise my son for the next 15 years; why not just give up and do as the Romans do? Why not sign up for a toxic loan and not worry about the future? If it's good enough for so many other average people, why not me, too?!!!
 
<p>Why does it have to be a toxic loan? Anything other than a fixed rate (30 or 15 years) is CRAZY. Rates are still historically low, if you finding something you can afford and lock in and then consider that you will put 1/3 of your mortgage payment and property tax payment back into your pocket (write-offs), what is there to worry about? If you lose your job, you find another one. How long have you really been out of work - or ever?</p>
 
<p>"It was a tough decision to carry a $900k mortgage - but I am in LOVE with this house"</p>

<p>"I only base what I say on my gut because I haven't done any research or reading....It just seems based on my circle of friends and colleages and I people I talk to that people (especially in L.A.) and want to start families seemingly want to move here - and they are mostly yuppies and dinks."</p>

<p>"Turtle Ridge is practically Newport Coast - those prices will never come down (by much)"</p>

<p>"People ARE buying homes. Why would prices tank when people are buying?"</p>

<p>"I would hate to one day say, I should have bought in 07..."</p>

<p>LOL. OK, now I get it. hbunny is a bubblehead masquerading as a housing bull for our amusement. Very well done; you have managed to work in a very impressive amount of FB cliches so far. Classic work of parody. Bravo!</p>
 
<p>There's always a hunger for new housing. Some people just gotta have <strong>new</strong>. I wouldn't worry too much about this consumption. The resale inventory is climbing and people are increasingly hitting the financial wall and puking up their houses left and right, just not so much in Irvine yet.</p>

<p>Remember, the market always crashes right after the last bear capitulates. </p>
 
<p><strong>"How long have you really been out of work - or ever?"</strong></p>

<p>For the last 20 years national employment rate was around 5%. Since we can't assume it's always the same 5% of people that are unemployed, over a long mortgage of 15 or 30 years looks like the odds aren't that small that one will be unemployed for at least some amount of time. You could argue perhaps lawyers and doctors are somewhat shielded from unemployment, but we're not really talking about the majority of people here.</p>

<p>My wife started a career then after a while decided to go back and get another degree in something else. Obviously wouldn't have been able to pull THAT off if she needed to make 4k$ payments every month.</p>

<p>Also, the current real, inflation-adjusted interest rate is about half a percentage point below the historical average (which as you said only comes 2/3 out of pocket with tax deductions, so the real paid rate is about 1/3 of a point lower than historical avg). It's lower, but it's not exactly earth-shattering.</p>
 
hbunny, I can't tell you how much money I make or how much I have in the bank for fear of pissing off fellow bloggers again...suffice it to say that the reason I lamented about giving in and taking out a toxic loan to buy the house that I want seemed rather obvious to me, but okay I'll spell it out for you... I cannot afford it! At the very most, I can only afford about 500-550k with a 30-year fixed. I want a house with a little yard and at least 1500 square feet. And I want it to be nice, not Brady Bunch. I'm 37 years old and have already owned two homes, the first of which was a total POS fixer upper. As a young, first-time homebuyer, that was acceptable for me. That is not the case now. By the time I believe the market will have settled down to whatever bottom it settles at, in '08 or '09, I'll be almost 40 years old. I want something nicer than that for my middle-age years. And don't tell me to leave OC - it's not an option. My family is here, my son's father is here, and my job that I love is here.
 
<p>This information is for those of you who has school age kids and are interested in the Verandas track in Tustin. </p>

<p>The assigned schools for that track / development are: Marjorie Veeh Elementary, A.G. Currie Middle, Tustin High. </p>

<p>Marjorie Veeh Elementary's 2006 API score is 738, ranked the 15th among the 18 elementary school in Tustin ISD</p>

<p>Currie Middle 2006 API score is 685, ranked last among the 5 middle school in Tustin ISD</p>

<p>Tustin High 2006 API score is 707, ranked last among the three high school in Tustin ISD. </p>

<p>Those API number might not mean much just by looking at them. However, the following information will put this in prespective:</p>

<p>a. State of CA require all school to achieve a API score of 800. All API score range from 0 to 1000. </p>

<p>b. The lowest of the Irvine ISD elementary school API score is 823.</p>

<p>c. The lowest of the Irvine middle school API score is 883


d. The lowest of the Irvine high school API score is 848. </p>

<p>Well, the conclusion is the schools assigned to the Verandas track are horrible!!!! </p>
 
Irvine123,





Thanks for the information. After viewing pretty much all of Villages of Columbus, I've already decided that I'm not even going to purchase or touch it with a 10' foot. Aside from half of the tracts being in Tustin (with your helpful school information), the following other factors just give me the chills. Can you say cancer?





- Powerlines


- Toxic Soil


- The traffic and noise when the new entertainment center comes up


- The metrolink being too close (I'm renting in Woodbury and I can even hear the horn during the evenings)


- The storm channel with who know's what living in there


- Cement factory and dump trucks


- Waste management facility






 
<p>It's amusing to come across the gem posts of "Master planned community X has sold out plan Y in Z days! No housing bust!"</p>

<p>Wish I had a nickel everytime...well yeah. </p>
 
having grown up in both the tustin and irvine area, i can tell you that the caliber of tustin high students is not as impressive as irvine/university high students, or even foothill high. beckman wasn't around when i was a student, so no comment on that one. anyway, i somehow was lucky enough to go to foothill high, while all my other friends ended up at tustin high. we all started on equal footing in middel school (at CT) but by the end of my four years in high school, i noticed a HUGE gap in education, and even college admittance. a majority of my foothill friends got into UCs (UCLA, UCSD, UCI, UCB, etc). in fact, the UC system was most people's "backup" college, because many of the honor students at foothill were aiming for ivy leagues. at tustin high, however, the typical honor student's "backup" was the cal state school system (fullerton, long beach, northridge), and very few were qualified enough to even make it into a UC. anyway, i mention all of this to further support irvine123's point, that the schools assigned to the Verandas track make it a less desirable track. i graduated high school almost 10 years ago, so maybe what i have to say is not as legitimate. thoughts anyone?





anyway, i was at the verandas phase release today but my name didnt get called. and yes it was packed. i was considering a home in this track simply because it was cheapest. but in retrospect, im relieved that i didnt have to make that decision to buy today, because something about that track doesnt feel right. im a single working professional so the school district is a non-issue for me. but from the resale or leasing perspective, im leaning towards an irvine property simple because of the intrinsic value of an irvine home (school system).





im curious to see how the phase 2 will sell. considering all the lots for the next 2-3 phases are directly behind edinger, i personally think that makes it even less desirable to live there. could you imagine how noisy and dusty it would be?? i had experience living behind a major road once (chapman in orange). it was still noisy even with double pane windows. and dont forget the railroad is directly across the way too. if anyone is seriously considering buying a verandas home, i think it would be wise to wait until the last 2 phases where the homes are further away from the road. despite the price and nice floor plans, and in light of all the things i mentioned, the verandas is pretty much out of the picture for me.






 
<p>I am avoiding Columbus Square for exactly the same reasons mentioned about schools. Tustin High's API is the worst amongst the area schools.</p>

<p>I might tolerate Beckman because it's "up and coming" with the new money moving in, but would vastly prefer Irvine USD.</p>

<p>Yes, while I agree that parental presence and supervision with schoolwork accounts for I dunno, 2/3 to 3/4 of a child's academic performance but the schools count for something too. And I don't remember geometry, calculus, and Chaucer anymore, only that I learned that stuff long ago. :)</p>
 
Be forewarned though. How many of those "sold" buttons actually represent done deals? I know HBs are eager to slap those buttons on the board to let the public see the "urgency" in buying NOW when all that they may have is someone showing "interest". Remember those days when they tell you to show up at 8 A.M. in their sales office for their lottery? If you are the lucky one, your name will be chosen from the hundreds of names on the waiting list. Are you buyers ready to back to those days again?
 
IIIrvine is exactly right!!! Builder sales person often use the tactic of putting sold bottons on unsold homes to create urgency. They teach that trick to sales persons. I have a friend has been in the RE business for a long time, and was a new home sales person for one of the major builders here. That is exactly what they were taught to do. So be very careful not to get tricked into "if I don't buy now, it will be gone".


Also, for those of you are very serious about buying, you can get the exact closing price of any homes you are interested in knowing from the County Clerk's office by reading the amount of transfer tax they paid on the Deed recording. Since the clerks office just opened an office in Laguna Hills, it doesn't take as long as before to go to Santa Ana.




 
Also, in the debut of a new tract, particularly if prices have dropped, contract flippers will come out and make deposits just in case the builder is too low. A contract flipper puts down a deposit with the hope of prices going up and they can sell their contract to a future buyer before they have to take possession. For instance, if you put down a $5000 deposit and 6 months later when the house is finished and the builder wants you to close, if prices have gone up $40,000, you could probably sell your contract for $25,000-$30,000. If it doesn't go up or if you can't find a buyer for your contract, you cancel and get your deposit back. This is a no risk option. Lots of people were doing this during the period when prices were rising the fastest.





All that is to say, even if the tract is sold out, these buyers may cancel for one reason or another. Builder cancellation rates are very high right now, and they will continue to be while prices are in flux.
 
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