Turtle Ridge Price per square foot this winter?

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billbaldi_IHB

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Just curious what people who know the area of Turtle Ridge believe the price per square foot will be this winter and what it will be around the bottom of the market. Currently homes are selling in there for around $400 a square foot. I'm mainly interested in the Ledges. Crimson Rose, Tall Hedge and Rose Trellis. I'm looking to buy and wanting to pay no more than 1 million. Thanks for your honest opinion.
 
[quote author="hbguybill" date=1233833729]Just curious what people who know the area of Turtle Ridge believe the price per square foot will be this winter and what it will be around the bottom of the market.</blockquote>


I don't qualify for someone who knows the area, but based on rental parity, you should find something around $325 at the bottom.



Here are some examples:

<a href="http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/41-Hidden-Trl_Irvine_CA_92603_1106514706">41 Hidden Trl</a> 3,565 sq. ft. Asking rental price $7,000 ($314/sq. ft. based on 160 GRM). Asking price $1,999,000 or $561/ sq. ft.



<a href="http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/35-Crimson-Rose_Irvine_CA_92603_1106405190">35 Crimson Rose</a> 3,100 sq. ft. Asking rental price $6,750 ($348/sq. ft. based on 160 GRM).



<a href="http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/21-Clouds-Point_Irvine_CA_92603_1105710799?mp=1">21 Clouds Point</a>4,586 sq. ft. Asking rental price $7,880 ($275/sq. ft. based on 160 GRM).



53 Grandview is at $264/sq. ft with the same logic.



29 Reserve is at $250/sq. ft with the same logic.



25 Cobalt Sky is at $281/sq. ft with the same logic. Asking price is $3,999,500 or $702/sq. ft. (little disconnect here).



35 RidgeView is at $280/sq. ft with the same logic.



23 Sweet Bay is at $250/sq. ft with the same logic.



The average of the 8 homes with over 2,000 sq. ft. available for rent in Turtle Ridge is $283. Trend this forward a few years by 5% (pick your bottom) and you get something in the low $300.



[quote author="hbguybill" date=1233833729]Currently homes are selling in there for around $400 a square foot. I'm mainly interested in the Ledges. Crimson Rose, Tall Hedge and Rose Trellis. I'm looking to buy and wanting to pay no more than 1 million. Thanks for your honest opinion.</blockquote>


$400 is the lower range I saw in Redfin. The average is probably closer to $450-$500.
 
Interesting Turtle Ridge REO listing today

$3,880,000 in 2006 - $2,128,500 listing price = $1,751,500 loss



<A href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Ridgeview-92603/home/5928052">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Ridgeview-92603/home/5928052</A>



33 Ridgeview

Irvine, CA 92603

Price: $2,128,500

BEDS: 5

BATHS: 6

SQ. FT.: 5,900

$/SQ. FT.: $361

LOT SIZE: 0.28 Acres

PROPERTY TYPE: Single Family Residence

STYLE: Other

STORIES: 2

VIEW: Bay, City Lights, Mountain, Ocean, Panoramic

YEAR BUILT: 2006

COMMUNITY: Turtle Ridge

COUNTY: Orange

MLS#: P696338

SOURCE: SoCalMLS

STATUS: Active

ON REDFIN: 1 day

Spectacular view from this home! Make this your own palace! Prep kitchen located behind the open family kitchen. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guest/maid/mother in law. Main floor study, living room, dining room, laundry room and family room. Upstairs family room in addition to bedrooms. Unbelievable views from the master bedroom and bathroom. Sold As-Is with no warranties expressed or implied.



Listing Information

Conditions: REO/Lender Owned



Property History for 33 Ridgeview

Date Event Price Appreciation Source

Jul 22, 2009 Listed $2,128,500 -- SoCalMLS #P696338

Jan 21, 2009 Sold $2,635,000 -16.7%/yr Public Records

Dec 11, 2006 Sold $3,880,000 -- Public Records
 
It looks nice, and is actually on a decent sized lot. But...



I really wonder if there are enough households making 500 grand who have a big family and want to live up there, rather than down in NPB, to support the market?
 
Well... no one paid the $2.15mil cash needed to buy <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/30-Reserve-Irvine-CA-92603/63113204_zpid/">30 Reserve at the auction the other day</a>. The NTS was nearly $3.1mil, and someone paid $4.2mil for it in 2007. Where is Janet when you need her? I could have sworn she said we would NEVER see 50% off in TR. Oops, wrong again.
 
I wonder if, historically, higher priced areas (like Turtle Ridge, or even Irvine in general) tend to have higher GRMs than lower priced areas. This would make sense, because rich people are more likely to want to buy a house than to rent, and poorer people frequently don't have the credit score, steady employment, or down payment to do so. This might explain why the bubble was so much bigger (percentage-wise) in poorer places like Riverside, because a large part of what drove it was no-doc loans with teaser rates and no down payment, so poor people could, in fact, buy a house, and why, once those loans were no longer offered (and more of them defaulted), that it crashed harder in poorer areas.



I doubt you'll get to 160 GRM in Turtle Ridge ever.
 
Well, if you look at equivalent neighborhoods that existed in the 90s (TR, or parts of NPB), they did get to rental equivalence.



Why would the newer TR be different?



say they rent at $5k/month, that would be $800k.



That would require a $200k income. No matter how wealthy you think TheOC is, there just are not *that many* people with that income (top few %). And there are a whole lot of houses competing for those buyers (NPB, Laguna, VP, parts of Irvine, north Tustin, etc).



The banks will drop the price until they find a buyer. They may have to drop the price a lot in the coming years.
 
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