The Substitution Effect

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irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
There was an interesting post on the IHB last week regarding Riverside homes and how a better transportation between the IE and Irvine would get people to buy there instead of here:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/bl...tgages-underwater-23-of-mortgages-60-days-la/

But most of the comments disagreed because even with the commute problems solved, Riverside was still too far away to offer a proper substitution (and this ignores the argument that if it did become a viable substitution, traffic would increase again nullifying the solution). Personally, I could never live that far away even if there were zero traffic and houses cost $1.

So my question is what product outside (or even inside) of Irvine would be a good substitute? What is more important? Price, location, features... all of the above?

I have 3 substitutions for what I would classify as our "forever home". For our case, that would be a newer 4 or 5 bedroom house (one bedroom on the first floor) with at least 2 dining areas and a second living space either downstairs (could be the extra bedroom/den) or a loft. It should have a 3-car garage, upstairs laundry with sink (if possible) an open kitchen, some outdoor space and a nice master bedroom/bath. And I'll put a price on it to make it easier to compare... below $700k. Now as we all know, something like that for that price is impossible to find in Irvine... so the following is what we compromises we could make for that price range:

1. Older SFR (3/2.5 or higher) in Irvine with a larger lot and an expandable floorplan:
The rationale here is that depending on the floorplan and lot, we can always make the house bigger. But there are only certain areas where we are willing to live (Woodbridge probably being highest on the list).

2. Newer detached condo/townhome (3/2.5 minimum):
The caveat here is that bedrooms must all be on the same floor. There are lots of these types of products in Irvine but usually there are 2 bedrooms up and 1 down. The leading area for this would be Quail Hill because if we are going to go with smaller home, it might as well be in one of the "premium" neighborhoods in Irvine. And since condo product values are iffy at times... at least the location factor helps. We also doubt this would be a "forever home" so in the future, we could see it as a rental unit since professionals (close to Spectrum) and students (close to UCI) favor the area.

3. Newer SFR on a large view lot in a neighboring city:
We've tried this before and are looking at it again. The big thing here is this home HAS to have all the features we want if we are going to give up location in Irvine. It MUST have a 3-car garage, a large lot, newer floorplan/layout, a view and either a corner or cul-de-sac location. Any type of compromise here will just amplify the fact that we are not in Irvine.

We had given up on number 3 when we had tried to look around Aliso Viejo and decided to go for number 1 or 2. But this past weekend, we were visiting a relative in the Quail Run area of Mission Viejo and it got us thinking about it again. For number 3, the leading cities here are Aliso Viejo, Mission Viejo, Tustin Ranch and surprisingly... Foothill Ranch.

The reason why Foothill Ranch is a bit of stretch for us is that it's quite a ways away from a "free"way but the prices, lot sizes and elevated views have us curious. The new Summit Crest at Lake Forest has brand new builds but the neighborhood/lot/tract was not very desirable to us... and no 3CWG. Of the areas mentioned, Tustin Ranch is probably just like Irvine in pricing, I could only find one product below $850k at $829k so with a target of $700k or lower, that leaves only MV, AV and FR.

All three of those have similar products but I think MV and FR give you more bang for the buck (and lower Mello Roos). I prefer Aliso the most... but MV seems to have a nicer mix. Here are the ones I would consider:

16 La Perla, 5/2.75 2478sf, $565k 6000sf lothttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Foothill-Ranch/16-La-Perla-92610/home/4798854
Floorplan:http://i40.tinypic.com/w9xstf.jpg

Nice big lot, but not on a corner or cul-de-sac and the view is of the mountains and not the lower city lights. Even though the listing price is a Short Sale bait number... something like this in Irvine would be double.

40 Hawk, 4/2.75 2472sf, $699k 6100sf lothttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Mission-Viejo/40-Hawk-Hl-92692/home/5053796
Floorplan:http://i42.tinypic.com/21o0zzl.jpg

This is in the gated Quail Run community. It's not a corner lot but it is on a cul-de-sac street and it has a nice view. The pool can be a pro or con but it looks like a nice entertaining backyard.

Did you notice they both happen to have the same floorplan? I did not like that the laundry was downstairs (and no sink) but that seems to be the case for homes built before 2000.

There are a few more that are priced slightly over $700k and then there are a bunch 4/2.5s priced in the $600ks... but then we get to that compromise area where if I'm going to not be in Irvine... I better get 5 bedrooms. And then if there is some price leeway movement up... do you still look in other cities or you compromise on house because location is king?

So what would be good substitute for you? Or are there no substitutes?
 
You gotta ask yourself "why Irvine"?

For me, it was the fact that my kids were already in Irvine schools and scouts. 

If it weren't for those reasons, I would definitely pick Substitute #3.  I like Mission Viejo's hilly terrain and would love to have a large view lot.  Actually, I plan to move that way in about 10-15 years when my kids are out of school.  Hopefully, I can still sell my Irvine house at a premium.
 
To me the solution seems fairly simple. Instead of lowering OC's standard of living by widening freeways or constructing a tunnel from the IE to the OC, why not carpet bomb Riverside with grants and tax credits to get real businesses to plant themselves out there. You grow the area with high earning jobs and improve the quality of life in both areas with shorter commuting/less pollution.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
 
I used to think exactly the same.  Why don't they move the good paying jobs to IE.
Then I talked to one of the higher ups in my company.  His reasoning is that the management that make the decision on where to locate the company do not want to live in IE.  They want their families to live in OC, since the management can afford a nice home in OC.  Also, many of the high performing employees with highly desirable skills will not follow the company to IE.  Companies locate in OC to recruit high skilled workers.  The IE has high skilled workers also, but not to the degree of OC.
 
At my last company we thought about relocating the headquarters (we were in West LA) because we were running out of space. We had a map and put pins around where the executive and top managers lived to determine a central area where we could relocate to. We didnt end up moving after all because we were able to secure additional space in the current building. 
 
And that's what makes my decision hard. We don't need a 5 bedroom house but it's nice to have the space (extra rooms for either an office, a playspace or a guestroom). We don't need a big lot, but what if we want to entertain. We haven't actually entertained really but is that the chicken or the egg? Is it because we live in a small house or because we didn't have the need to before... but now the kids are getting to the point where they want to have parties at the house.

So instead of that 5/3 in some South County city... do we settle for a smaller 3/2.5 condo in a nice area like this?

54 Paperwhite, 3/2.5 1840sf $649k (under contract)http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/54-Paperwhite-92603/home/5945400http://floorplans.irvinerealtorsite.com/QuailHill/Soltice/SolticeB1840.JPG

It's big enough, no real outdoor space but it's detached and located in Quail Hill. Probably can't entertain more than 2 or 3 families but is it worth the $650k over a "real" home not in Irvine for the same price?
 
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