The housing bottom sentiment meter

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Anonymous_IHB

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<p>The point of this thread is for people to post the ongoing sentiments (anonymous sentiments, or links to sentiments in various newspaper articles from "the man on the street") regarding housing.</p>

<p>I was struck by the comment pasted below (from comments section at <a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/12/condo-conversions.html">http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/12/condo-conversions.html</a>). Most random comments I get from people I meet when they hear about some new low comp in the neighborhood is "Wow, that's a great deal". Given that, I think we've got a long, long way to go still. </p>

<p>---------------------------------------------</p>

<p><img class="gravatar" title="Gravatar" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 1px; PADDING-LEFT: 1px; FLOAT: right; PADDING-BOTTOM: 1px; MARGIN: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 1px" alt="Gravatar" src="http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=3b7fdcab8dfb57595260887edb1ccdeb&default=http%3A%2F%2Fec1.images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FG%2F01%2Fx-locale%2Fcommon%2Ftransparent-pixel.gif&rating=PG&size=28" /> <em>Can you imagine a lender not wanting to loan more than the appraised value? How traditional. But Danah's choices aren't find $100K or lose her deposit. Her choices are renegotiate with the builder or walk away.</em>





I think making easily available mortgage loans is going to be the first mechanism that the Govt uses to try to assist housing and the consumer economy (and the Fed might monetize the bad ones).





The problem is that we may be rapidly approaching the point where it's too late.





Toward the end of the real estate bust in Houston when I had no house (late 80s) people would literally tell me things like "Let me give you some advice young man. Whatever you do don't every buy a house. It will be the end of you... financial ruin... personal disgrace. And I promise I'll personally kick your ass if I ever see you in a house you're not renting. Signing a mortgage is signing your own death warrant."





Of course that was one of the best times to buy a house in Houston.





Once housing goes bad, people hate houses with a passion for years. People see houses as prisons and nobody wants to buy one.





If we get to that point before any significant help arrives, there'll be a whole lot of string pushing going on.</p>

<p>ac | 12.14.07 - 10:51 pm | <a title="Link to this comment" href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4881258297498897821/#366148">#</a> </p>
 
<p>I just got back from the movie "I Am Legend".</p>

<p>The movie opens with a scene from the TV news in which they are interviewing a medical researcher around Christmas 2009. Barely readable on the bottom of the screen (CNN style) the rolling captions scroll by with headlines. I just about choked when I read. 'Home Sales: slump continues, 2009 sales worse on record' or something like that.</p>

<p>Keep an eye out if you go, confirm what exactly it said, but I think I got the gist. </p>

<p>How's that for sentiment?</p>
 
That's not a "guy on the street" sentiment. That's movie/news sensationalism to make things more interesting to watch. I'm after what joe 6 pack thinks.
 
<p>Anonymous, yes it's sensationalism, but the basic tenat of entertainment is it is pertinent to the era in which it is written. The headlines chosen are reflective of the fears of the directors, writers and producers.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Ok, I take it back. Not sensationalist enough.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071206/bs_nm/usa_economy_housing_dc_2">http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071206/bs_nm/usa_economy_housing_dc_2</a></p>

<p>"This is the most severe housing recession since the post-World War II period," Zandi told Reuters.</p>
 
<a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/5-stages-of-mar.html#comments">5 stages of market grief, and where we are</a> now (this argues bargaining)
 
<p>Mood and Views at the American Economic Association Meetings: Recession Ahead</p>

<p><a href="http://rs.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/235798">http://rs.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/235798</a></p>

<p>Bob Shiller spoke of the subprime meltdown, of how households are still deluding themselves – in polls – that home prices will keep on rising for the next decade while they have already fallen by 10% in real terms and need to fall by a cumulative 30% before they bottom out (a loss of home values of about $6 trillion); he also argued that the probability of an economy wide recession is now about 75%. </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Around me people still seem to be in denial.</p>

<p>They simply don't understand that the amount of people that can TRULY qualify for the loan amount on an average home in so cal has been drastically reduced while the inventory has drastically increased. Simple supply and demand.</p>

<p>Just because prices went down and I want a home doesn't mean I can get the money.</p>

<p>If I hear one more time how good a deal a 750k box is because 2 years ago it was 750k I will grab a newspaper roll it up and smack the person that said that in the head.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>77% seems about right for people I randomly talk to on the street ...</p>

<p><a title="Permanent Link: 77% think it?s time house hunt. Do you?" rel="bookmark" href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/26/77-think-its-time-house-hunt-do-you/">77% think it’s time house hunt. Do you?</a></p>

<p>http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/26/77-think-its-time-house-hunt-do-you/</p>
 
<p>Note: I have no political axe to grind, just posted as housing related info as of course it's interesting to see candidate viewpoints as whichever candidate gets elected will obviously have some bearing on govt reponse after the election</p>

<p>John McCain's Remarks on Economic Woes</p>

<p><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/john_mccains_remarks_on_econom.html">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/john_mccains_remarks_on_econom.html</a></p>

<p>I have always been committed to the principle that it is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers. Government assistance to the banking system should be based solely on preventing systemic risk that would endanger the entire financial system and the economy.</p>
 
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