Talk about chasing the market down for over a year now...

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graphrix_IHB

graphrix_IHB

New member
<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orange/2720-E-Walnut-Ave-92867/unit-72/home/4396056">I found this home near me</a> and I thought that it deserved its own thread for how long it has been listed, how many price drops it has had, and how it is below its 2004 price.



http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/132/P564132_2.jpg



Mmmm... granite...



http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/132/P564132_9_2.jpg



Eww... blue carpet, and I love blue, but blue carpet is just wrong...



http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/132/P564132_1_2.jpg



Price Reduced: 04/15/07 -- $575,000 to $555,000

Price Reduced: 05/21/07 -- $555,000 to $550,000

Price Reduced: 07/18/07 -- $550,000 to $525,000

Price Reduced: 08/27/07 -- $525,000 to $499,900

Price Reduced: 09/27/07 -- $499,900 to $475,000

Price Reduced: 12/20/07 -- $475,000 to $449,900

Price Reduced: 04/19/08 -- $449,900 to $424,900

Price Reduced: 05/14/08 -- $424,900 to $399,000





Sales History



Date Price



Jan 04, 1990 $197,500



Apr 29, 2004 $450,000



Now, this home would have sold for $550k in 2006 no problem, but the market had changed in 2007, and the Realtor was snorting the Kool-Aid back in last April. Had they priced it at $450 or $475 then, then they wouldn't be losing over 10% of what they paid. Now, if you take Realtor spiel and how much you gain on your minimal down payment, then I think we need to look at that in the same way with a loss. If they put down 20%, they have lost 56% of their "investment", and if they put 10% down, they have lost a 113% of their "investment". Add in monthly extra costs to rent and closing fees, and you can kiss that 20% goodbye.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orange/2720-E-Walnut-Ave-92867/unit-10/home/4396164">Take a look at the REO competition they have</a>.



http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/141/S531141_0.jpg



Doh!!! No granite!



http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/141/S531141_1_0.jpg



Oh... it is just like the 90s all over again, just a lot freakin faster...





Sales History



Date Price



<strong>May 17, 1990 $210,000 </strong>



<strong><u>Jul 30, 1997 $160,500 </u></strong>



<strong>Jan 10, 2001 $229,500 </strong>

<strong>

Apr 14, 2003 $336,000 </strong>



<strong>Dec 12, 2005 $545,000</strong><---- See, in 2006 it could have sold for $550k, someone was high as a mofo on the Kool-Aid back then.



<strong>Apr 03, 2008 $330,000</strong>



Lesson to be learned... again just like the 90s, real estate doesn't always go up, and when it goes down it can go down hard. And, there are no foreigners with Yuans or Wons or Yen to save the market, just like there wasn't the last bust. Wash, rinse, and repeat.
 
This property is about the same distance from G-dog as it is from me.



Market rent for that place is about $1800-2000 a month or so. What is interesting is how far your $15,000 goes to buying upgrades. I'm certain those countertops cost more than $15K.



When I moved here in 2005, the guy next to me bought his home for about $660K. If he 'had' to sell today, it would be in the sub $400k range. Where Irvine and Newport might get saved by forign investors (yeah right) nobody is coming to our little hamlet of Orange except day laborors and they are looking for work, not to buy homes.
 
I'm going to assume it will blow through rental parity if a 20% down payment is required by the lender, which IR claims is coming, and I agree.



You'll see this (sort of) home sell for $230 at the bottom.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1211235676]This property is about the same distance from G-dog as it is from me.



Market rent for that place is about $1800-2000 a month or so. What is interesting is how far your $15,000 goes to buying upgrades. I'm certain those countertops cost more than $15K.



When I moved here in 2005, the guy next to me bought his home for about $660K. If he 'had' to sell today, it would be in the sub $400k range. Where Irvine and Newport might get saved by forign investors (yeah right) nobody is coming to our little hamlet of Orange except day laborors and they are looking for work, not to buy homes.</blockquote>


That sounds pretty low, Cube. I'd rent that place in a heartbeat for under 2k a month. It's a 3 bedroom. I wouldn't go over 2200 a month though.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1211277437][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1211235676]This property is about the same distance from G-dog as it is from me.



Market rent for that place is about $1800-2000 a month or so. What is interesting is how far your $15,000 goes to buying upgrades. I'm certain those countertops cost more than $15K.



When I moved here in 2005, the guy next to me bought his home for about $660K. If he 'had' to sell today, it would be in the sub $400k range. Where Irvine and Newport might get saved by forign investors (yeah right) nobody is coming to our little hamlet of Orange except day laborors and they are looking for work, not to buy homes.</blockquote>


That sounds pretty low, Cube. I'd rent that place in a heartbeat for under 2k a month. It's a 3 bedroom. I wouldn't go over 2200 a month though.</blockquote>


Eh, not really. You can find some really good deals in Orange. I can find 3/2 SFRs for $1800-$2000 a month. The 4/2 2800 sqft. SFR across the street from was rented out at $3000 a month, and a way better neighborhood.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1211235676]This property is about the same distance from G-dog as it is from me.



Market rent for that place is about $1800-2000 a month or so. What is interesting is how far your $15,000 goes to buying upgrades. I'm certain those countertops cost more than $15K.



When I moved here in 2005, the guy next to me bought his home for about $660K. If he 'had' to sell today, it would be in the sub $400k range. Where Irvine and Newport might get saved by forign investors (yeah right) nobody is coming to our little hamlet of Orange except day laborors and they are looking for work, not to buy homes.</blockquote>


Those granite counters only cost more than $15K if you let yourself get ripped off. I did 45sf mid-priced slab (not the lower cost variety such as trop brown, ven gold) with demo, new plywood, a double-awgee (pun intended) edge, etc. for $2K.



Who in their right mind unloads on granite counters and leaves their crappy ole combo range/oven installed? If you're gonna buy the rock, might as well complete with nice cooktop and separate over...
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1211283782][quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1211277437][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1211235676]This property is about the same distance from G-dog as it is from me.



Market rent for that place is about $1800-2000 a month or so. What is interesting is how far your $15,000 goes to buying upgrades. I'm certain those countertops cost more than $15K.



When I moved here in 2005, the guy next to me bought his home for about $660K. If he 'had' to sell today, it would be in the sub $400k range. Where Irvine and Newport might get saved by forign investors (yeah right) nobody is coming to our little hamlet of Orange except day laborors and they are looking for work, not to buy homes.</blockquote>


That sounds pretty low, Cube. I'd rent that place in a heartbeat for under 2k a month. It's a 3 bedroom. I wouldn't go over 2200 a month though.</blockquote>


Eh, not really. You can find some really good deals in Orange. I can find 3/2 SFRs for $1800-$2000 a month. The 4/2 2800 sqft. SFR across the street from was rented out at $3000 a month, and a way better neighborhood.</blockquote>


Validated by my Villa Park neighbor. Thx bro.



There were a couple of homes between that one and the freeway that were for rent below the range I gave you. Problem is.......the folks who owned the homes were 60 to 180 days from foreclosure so you didn't get to stay for very long.



Also, I was mistaken this property was a SFR. You can knock off a couple of hundred bucks a month on the rents.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1211285637][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1211235676]This property is about the same distance from G-dog as it is from me.



Market rent for that place is about $1800-2000 a month or so. <u><em><strong>What is interesting is how far your $15,000 goes to buying upgrades. I'm certain those countertops cost more than $15K.</strong></em></u>



When I moved here in 2005, the guy next to me bought his home for about $660K. If he 'had' to sell today, it would be in the sub $400k range. Where Irvine and Newport might get saved by forign investors (yeah right) nobody is coming to our little hamlet of Orange except day laborors and they are looking for work, not to buy homes.</blockquote>


Those granite counters only cost more than $15K if you let yourself get ripped off. I did 45sf mid-priced slab (not the lower cost variety such as trop brown, ven gold) with demo, new plywood, a double-awgee (pun intended) edge, etc. for $2K.



Who in their right mind unloads on granite counters and leaves their crappy ole combo range/oven installed? If you're gonna buy the rock, might as well complete with nice cooktop and separate over...</blockquote>


IPO:



<img src="http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/EPH/9101~Sarcasm-Posters.jpg" alt="" />
 
<strong>Chasing the market:</strong>





<blockquote>

Listing Price History

Date Price Oct 17, 2007 $649,000

Dec 01, 2007 $629,000

Jan 25, 2008 $590,000

Feb 08, 2008 $570,000

Feb 19, 2008 $530,000

Feb 29, 2008 $480,000

Apr 20, 2008 $469,000

May 08, 2008 $430,000

Jun 19, 2008 $550,000

Jul 22, 2008 $510,000

Aug 18, 2008 $485,000</blockquote>


Could it be because of the fabulous photos?



<img src="http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/404/U7004404_1_1.jpg" alt="" />







Decide for yourself:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/2164-Canyon-Dr-92627/unit-G/home/4556629?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=listings_update&utm_nooverride=1
 
The OP home is off the market. Just in time, the banks are here to compete! This property is not a 2002 rollback, and isn't 50% off, but it deserves recognition somewhere, so here it is.



This one is close to the OP home, in a nicer neighborhood, and a true SFR. It does lie next to the freeway. Hey, what do you want for $325K?



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orange/363-N-LE-MAY-Ct-92867/home/4407369">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orange/363-N-LE-MAY-Ct-92867/home/4407369</a>



363 N LE MAY Ct

Orange, CA 92867

Price: $325,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,232

$/Sq. Ft.: $264

Lot Size: 2,890 Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 1976

Stories: 1 Level

Area: Orange & Garden Grove, East of Harbor, North of 22 Freeway

County: Orange

MLS#: P650515

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 13 days



Sales History

Date Price Appreciation

Mar 07, 1997 $135,000 --

Feb 18, 1999 $160,000 9.1%/yr

Jul 15, 2003 $305,000 15.8%/yr

May 26, 2004 $454,000 58.4%/yr

Apr 22, 2005 $505,000 12.5%/yr

May 20, 2008 $463,140 -2.8%/yr
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1219197979]The OP home is off the market. Just in time, the banks are here to compete! This property is not a 2002 rollback, and isn't 50% off, but it deserves recognition somewhere, so here it is.



This one is close to the OP home, in a nicer neighborhood, and a true SFR. It does lie next to the freeway. Hey, what do you want for $325K?



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orange/363-N-LE-MAY-Ct-92867/home/4407369">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orange/363-N-LE-MAY-Ct-92867/home/4407369</a>



363 N LE MAY Ct

Orange, CA 92867

Price: $325,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,232

$/Sq. Ft.: $264

Lot Size: 2,890 Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 1976

Stories: 1 Level

Area: Orange & Garden Grove, East of Harbor, North of 22 Freeway

County: Orange

MLS#: P650515

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 13 days



Sales History

Date Price Appreciation

Mar 07, 1997 $135,000 --

Feb 18, 1999 $160,000 9.1%/yr

Jul 15, 2003 $305,000 15.8%/yr

May 26, 2004 $454,000 58.4%/yr

Apr 22, 2005 $505,000 12.5%/yr

May 20, 2008 $463,140 -2.8%/yr</blockquote>


I think we should make this the I dunno where to post this because it isn't a 2002 rollback and it is 50% off, or just general WTF were they thinking properties.



So here is what I will add, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/557-S-Breezy-Way/25437532_zpid">this gem in Orange</a>. Someone picked it up at the foreclosure auction for $303k today.



Major selling point... close to the 55.



http://img801.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/20/breezy-4bl03xrzn.jpeg
 
This seller is a perfect example for chasing the mkt till it bottoms out. Hopefully he/she will be able to sell by then



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/160-Vintage-92620/home/7217175">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/160-Vintage-92620/home/7217175</a>



<strong>160 Vintage

Irvine, CA 92620 </strong>

<strong>Price: $759,000 </strong>

Beds: 3

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 1,640

<strong>$/Sq. Ft.: $463 </strong>

Lot Size: -

Property Type: Condominium

Style: Other

Year Built: 2005

Stories: 2 Levels

Floor: 1

View: Hills, Mountain, Park or Green Belt, Trees/Woods

Area: Woodbury

County: Orange

MLS#: U7002474

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

<strong>On Redfin: 435 days </strong>



Listing Price History

Date Price

Jun 12, 2007 $839,000

Sep 10, 2007 $824,000

Oct 01, 2007 $795,000

Apr 19, 2008 $789,000

Apr 27, 2008 $788,000

May 25, 2008 $787,000

Jun 07, 2008 $774,000

Jul 12, 2008 $770,000

Jul 24, 2008 $765,000

Aug 01, 2008 $759,000



Source: SoCalMLS
 
So... I have a question. When Fannie and Freddie blow up, what is going to happen to RE sales? To my mind, only a few transactions will get done, and that will be because the buyer has cash or financing through a bank that will hold the mortgage itself. Also consider, though, that many banks are going through a solvency crisis. So the number of banks financing and holding will be very small. Wouldn't it really be in a seller's best interest to swollow the big pill now (assuming they would not be underwater on the loan), discount the property to sell, and get out while they can?



Ok, maybe that was more than one question. ;)
 
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