Surprising facts about Northwood and Northpark

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Of the 94 properties over $750,000 currently on the market or sold in 2009 in both of these locales:



31 out of 39 are not distressed listings



45 out of 55 were not distressed sales



76 out of 94 (81%) of the total are not distressed properties



13 out of the 94 (14%) are/were listed as short sales



This is far better than most of Orange County and would seem to indicate people bought homes that they could at least initally afford and did not take out the equity that was there for the taking. Irvine is one of the very few places in Orange County that does not meet the definition of "REO driven" or "Short sale driven". While I'm aware that in reality the 19% do drive prices to a degree, maybe this is one reason for the relative strength of Irvine.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252640896]Of the 94 properties over $750,000 currently on the market or sold in 2009 in both of these locales:



31 out of 39 are not distressed listings



45 out of 55 were not distressed sales



76 out of 94 (81%) of the total are not distressed properties



13 out of the 94 (14%) are/were listed as short sales



This is far better than most of Orange County and would seem to indicate people bought homes that they could at least initally afford and did not take out the equity that was there for the taking. Irvine is one of the very few places in Orange County that does not meet the definition of "REO driven" or "Short sale driven". While I'm aware that in reality the 19% do drive prices to a degree, maybe this is one reason for the relative strength of Irvine.</blockquote>


Distressed inventory catalyzes price declines. The lower prevalence of distressed inventory on the market (so far) is almost certainly part of the explaination for Irvine's slower rate of depreciation. There's nothing controversial or suprising about that at all.
 
[quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1252642512][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252640896]Of the 94 properties over $750,000 currently on the market or sold in 2009 in both of these locales:



31 out of 39 are not distressed listings



45 out of 55 were not distressed sales



76 out of 94 (81%) of the total are not distressed properties



13 out of the 94 (14%) are/were listed as short sales



This is far better than most of Orange County and would seem to indicate people bought homes that they could at least initally afford and did not take out the equity that was there for the taking. Irvine is one of the very few places in Orange County that does not meet the definition of "REO driven" or "Short sale driven". While I'm aware that in reality the 19% do drive prices to a degree, maybe this is one reason for the relative strength of Irvine.</blockquote>


Distressed inventory catalyzes price declines. The lower prevalence of distressed inventory on the market (so far) is almost certainly part of the explaination for Irvine's slower rate of depreciation. There's nothing controversial or suprising about that at all.</blockquote>


Yes, but it should be surprising if you believe everyone buys way over their head, no?
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252643636]

Yes, but it should be surprising if you believe everyone buys way over their head, no?</blockquote>
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant "majority" or "significant portion" instead of "everyone." Because otherwise your question is just another shameless straw-man falacy.



But no, it's not suprising. There are many, many people who are in way over their heads on a mortgage, but haven't been foreclosed on yet.
 
I'd be interesting to see when people bought and get a history of how many homeowner bought in the bad years (2004 - today).



Also, even if these neighborhoods are not slammed by foreclosure, they can't hold an excessive premiums over neighboring cities.



With that said, it's interesting to see the low prevalence of distressed sales/listings which does explain how Irvine's price stayed relatively high.
 
<strong>BREAKING NEWS</strong>



Thursday, September 10, 2009

<strong>Irvine not as bad as rest of OC</strong>

By DENISSE SALAZAR

The Orange County Register



IRVINE - Startling results from a new study conducted on the local housing markets indicate that real estate conditions in Irvine are not as bad as in other parts of Orange County. This research used advanced statistical methods such as percentages. The Nobel Prize Committee has been notified of this ground-breaking contribution to economic research.



In other related news, economists at the Federal Reserve have found that wealthy people have money in their savings accounts than poor people. It was also determined that Chuck Norris is better at karate than the average American with no prior martial arts training.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1252646670]<strong>BREAKING NEWS</strong>



Thursday, September 10, 2009

<strong>Irvine not as bad as rest of OC</strong>

By DENISSE SALAZAR

The Orange County Register



IRVINE - Startling results from a new study conducted on the local housing markets indicate that real estate conditions in Irvine are not as bad as in other parts of Orange County. <strong> This research used advanced statistical methods such as percentages. </strong></blockquote>


I heard they also used additions and substractions. They might have ventured a few averages to make it very thorough.
 
Would this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Inglenook-92602/home/7213168">one</a> be distressed or not distressed? It's list is higher than it's buy, but a sale at the average $/sf list price puts it upside down $100K?



What about this<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Spyrock-92602/home/7203055"> one?</a> At $415/sf it's list price is $3000 more than it's purchase price. I'm assuming that's not included as distressed since it's not flagged a short sale.



What about this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Dos-Rios-92602/home/5858998">one with a 2002 purchase?</a> Clearly in the money, but at 128 days on the market how do we classify him? Unmotivated? Fishing? Sniffing glue?



Is this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Calistoga-92602/home/5772208">one distressed?</a> It's not tagged as a short sale, but it's list price is $50,000 below it's purchase price in March 2005.



This one is in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Delano-92602/home/5859354">backup offers.</a> It's list price is $70,000 below it's last buy. Unless it goes for about 20% over list price it's gut punch on future comps at $281/sf. It's not listed as a short sale.



What about <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Inglenook-92602/home/7213167">this one? </a>It's one door down from the 1st one. It's not listed as a short sale but it's list price is $230,000 below it's last buy. For some reason, if I had it for sale at $230,000 less than I paid three years ago I suspect I would be stressed even if not distressed.



What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?



I get 11 of 39 flagged short sales, none of which are the above.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1252666263]Would this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Inglenook-92602/home/7213168">one</a> be distressed or not distressed? It's list is higher than it's buy, but a sale at the average $/sf list price puts it upside down $100K?



What about this<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Spyrock-92602/home/7203055"> one?</a> At $415/sf it's list price is $3000 more than it's purchase price. I'm assuming that's not included as distressed since it's not flagged a short sale.



What about this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Dos-Rios-92602/home/5858998">one with a 2002 purchase?</a> Clearly in the money, but at 128 days on the market how do we classify him? Unmotivated? Fishing? Sniffing glue?



Is this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Calistoga-92602/home/5772208">one distressed?</a> It's not tagged as a short sale, but it's list price is $50,000 below it's purchase price in March 2005.



This one is in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Delano-92602/home/5859354">backup offers.</a> It's list price is $70,000 below it's last buy. Unless it goes for about 20% over list price it's gut punch on future comps at $281/sf. It's not listed as a short sale.



What about <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Inglenook-92602/home/7213167">this one? </a>It's one door down from the 1st one. It's not listed as a short sale but it's list price is $230,000 below it's last buy. For some reason, if I had it for sale at $230,000 less than I paid three years ago I suspect I would be stressed even if not distressed.



What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?



I get 11 of 39 flagged short sales, none of which are the above.</blockquote>


Unless you have loan data, you are spewing hot air.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252706631]Unless you have loan data, you are spewing hot air.</blockquote>


You are becoming more and more irritating.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1252712301][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252706631]Unless you have loan data, you are spewing hot air.</blockquote>


You are becoming more and more irritating.</blockquote>


That's not as good as data.
 
<a href="http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=60350142"><img src="http://image.kazaa.com/images/23/884977283723/Weird_Al_Yankovic/Skipper_Dan/Weird_Al_Yankovic-Skipper_Dan_2.jpg" alt="" /></a>
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252718565]Maybe i've missed something in a past thread, but what is the argument here? Number distressed properties?</blockquote>


There is no single argument overall. It is a non-veiled attempt to shut out opposing viewpoints. In this thread, it is disguised as disagreement over distressed inventory.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252640896]Of the 94 properties over $750,000 currently on the market or sold in 2009 in both of these locales:



31 out of 39 are not distressed listings



45 out of 55 were not distressed sales



76 out of 94 (81%) of the total are not distressed properties



13 out of the 94 (14%) are/were listed as short sales



This is far better than most of Orange County and would seem to indicate people bought homes that they could at least initally afford and did not take out the equity that was there for the taking. Irvine is one of the very few places in Orange County that does not meet the definition of "REO driven" or "Short sale driven". While I'm aware that in reality the 19% do drive prices to a degree, maybe this is one reason for the relative strength of Irvine.</blockquote>


The higher end is the next wave that will be crashing with the Alt-A and option arms that most people used to buy in this higher end of the market. There is over 1 trillion of these loans reseting in the next 4 years and 42% are here in California. Here is a link that may explain the high end shoe that is about to drop.



http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/...n-arms-the-zombie-loans-that-simply-dont-die/
 
[quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1252729496]<a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/1-1-trillion-in-toxic-loans-908-billion-in-interest-only-and-198-billion-in-option-arms-the-zombie-loans-that-simply-dont-die/">link</a></blockquote>


Awesome!



"The banking system is corrupt to the core! It produced a minion of greedy short sighted thinkers that paper pushed this country into believing flipping homes to one another and sticking on granite countertops to every home was the ultimate sign of success. "
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252706631][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1252666263]Would this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Inglenook-92602/home/7213168">one</a> be distressed or not distressed? It's list is higher than it's buy, but a sale at the average $/sf list price puts it upside down $100K?



What about this<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Spyrock-92602/home/7203055"> one?</a> At $415/sf it's list price is $3000 more than it's purchase price. I'm assuming that's not included as distressed since it's not flagged a short sale.



What about this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Dos-Rios-92602/home/5858998">one with a 2002 purchase?</a> Clearly in the money, but at 128 days on the market how do we classify him? Unmotivated? Fishing? Sniffing glue?



Is this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Calistoga-92602/home/5772208">one distressed?</a> It's not tagged as a short sale, but it's list price is $50,000 below it's purchase price in March 2005.



This one is in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Delano-92602/home/5859354">backup offers.</a> It's list price is $70,000 below it's last buy. Unless it goes for about 20% over list price it's gut punch on future comps at $281/sf. It's not listed as a short sale.



What about <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Inglenook-92602/home/7213167">this one? </a>It's one door down from the 1st one. It's not listed as a short sale but it's list price is $230,000 below it's last buy. For some reason, if I had it for sale at $230,000 less than I paid three years ago I suspect I would be stressed even if not distressed.



What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?



I get 11 of 39 flagged short sales, none of which are the above.</blockquote>


Unless you have loan data, you are spewing hot air.</blockquote>


"What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?"



Read. I highlighted that I see 11 of 39 flagged as short sales in current listings not including a quick scan of properties highlighted above that show a last purchase price higher than their current list price.



So, what did you count?
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1252748519][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252706631][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1252666263]Would this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Inglenook-92602/home/7213168">one</a> be distressed or not distressed? It's list is higher than it's buy, but a sale at the average $/sf list price puts it upside down $100K?



What about this<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Spyrock-92602/home/7203055"> one?</a> At $415/sf it's list price is $3000 more than it's purchase price. I'm assuming that's not included as distressed since it's not flagged a short sale.



What about this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Dos-Rios-92602/home/5858998">one with a 2002 purchase?</a> Clearly in the money, but at 128 days on the market how do we classify him? Unmotivated? Fishing? Sniffing glue?



Is this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Calistoga-92602/home/5772208">one distressed?</a> It's not tagged as a short sale, but it's list price is $50,000 below it's purchase price in March 2005.



This one is in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Delano-92602/home/5859354">backup offers.</a> It's list price is $70,000 below it's last buy. Unless it goes for about 20% over list price it's gut punch on future comps at $281/sf. It's not listed as a short sale.



What about <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Inglenook-92602/home/7213167">this one? </a>It's one door down from the 1st one. It's not listed as a short sale but it's list price is $230,000 below it's last buy. For some reason, if I had it for sale at $230,000 less than I paid three years ago I suspect I would be stressed even if not distressed.



What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?



I get 11 of 39 flagged short sales, none of which are the above.</blockquote>


Unless you have loan data, you are spewing hot air.</blockquote>


"What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?"



Read. I highlighted that I see 11 of 39 flagged as short sales in current listings not including a quick scan of properties highlighted above that show a last purchase price higher than their current list price.



So, what did you count?</blockquote>


Your figure of 11 is out of date. Asking being less than purchase price tells you nothing about debt on a property either. Being pissed-off is different than being distressed.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252798426][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1252748519][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252706631][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1252666263]Would this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Inglenook-92602/home/7213168">one</a> be distressed or not distressed? It's list is higher than it's buy, but a sale at the average $/sf list price puts it upside down $100K?



What about this<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Spyrock-92602/home/7203055"> one?</a> At $415/sf it's list price is $3000 more than it's purchase price. I'm assuming that's not included as distressed since it's not flagged a short sale.



What about this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Dos-Rios-92602/home/5858998">one with a 2002 purchase?</a> Clearly in the money, but at 128 days on the market how do we classify him? Unmotivated? Fishing? Sniffing glue?



Is this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Calistoga-92602/home/5772208">one distressed?</a> It's not tagged as a short sale, but it's list price is $50,000 below it's purchase price in March 2005.



This one is in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Delano-92602/home/5859354">backup offers.</a> It's list price is $70,000 below it's last buy. Unless it goes for about 20% over list price it's gut punch on future comps at $281/sf. It's not listed as a short sale.



What about <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Inglenook-92602/home/7213167">this one? </a>It's one door down from the 1st one. It's not listed as a short sale but it's list price is $230,000 below it's last buy. For some reason, if I had it for sale at $230,000 less than I paid three years ago I suspect I would be stressed even if not distressed.



What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?



I get 11 of 39 flagged short sales, none of which are the above.</blockquote>


Unless you have loan data, you are spewing hot air.</blockquote>


"What exactly was counted? Just those with NODs? Just short sale flagged?"



Read. I highlighted that I see 11 of 39 flagged as short sales in current listings not including a quick scan of properties highlighted above that show a last purchase price higher than their current list price.



So, what did you count?</blockquote>


Your figure of 11 is out of date. Asking being less than purchase price tells you nothing about debt on a property either. Being pissed-off is different than being distressed.</blockquote>


Answer the question. What did you count? Where did you get your data?
 
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