Suburbs dying off?

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RuralRob_IHB

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As I've watched the Great Housing Bubble Pop unfold, I've been thinking that this isn't just a matter of a bubble popping or a response to bad lending practices, but just part of a bigger but perhaps more "behind-the-scenes" trend: that many people, especially younger buyers, simply do not want to live in the suburbs any more. Then I came across this article:



http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime



which more eloquently describes exactly what I've been thinking. Especially after seeing shows like "Friends" and "Seinfeld", people newly setting out to find a place to live want to be where the action is, living someplace where many other people congregate, and you can walk (or take decent public transport) to work, the store, the park, etc. So the trend now is back to the city and away from the distant, boring suburbs. This in itself will drive suburban housing values down significantly.



I'm not sure how applicable this is to Orange County, as there is basically no walkable, vibrant downtown to move back to. But throughout much of the rest of the country, I think suburbs will likely become "ghettos" as the article states.
 
Also check out this documentary: <a href="http://imdb.com/title/tt0446320/">The End of Suburbia</a>. Its main argument is that suburbs were built on the notion that fossil fuels would be infinitely available at low prices, and shortages we face now threaten to undermine the suburbs' appeal.
 
I read this article also, and the one thing this article stresses is the importance of mixed use planning...





I would imagine Irvine is a good example of "mixed use" planning, in that we have a stable job base in the area, shopping centers in every village, and a variety of housing types. It's not like Valencia or the IE, where most commute from these places into LA.





This subject deserves more attention...I may post more later.





It does make for an interesting question: Everyone knows the housing bubble will affect Irvine home prices, but how much (if any) will Irvine's master planning protect from the downward trend compared to non-planned communities like Ladera, Mission Viejo, etc.?





-OCR
 
<p>Since I live close to work... i can't really complain. But its a pain to live far away, i'm willing to give up a few things to have convience available. But most important, i want to live in a nice safe place...(aka Irvine). More expensive, but I guess i'm willing to pay. I guess alot of people won't be able to for whatever reason.</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
I would suspect this would happen much more significantly in housing boomtowns out in the middle of nowhere than it would in OC...like many inland areas where people couldn't afford to live close enough to work but could pay to live in the stix (hello Beaumont).
 
<p><em>which more eloquently describes exactly what I've been thinking. Especially after seeing shows like "Friends" and "Seinfeld", people newly setting out to find a place to live want to be where the action is, living someplace where many other people congregate, and you can walk (or take decent public transport) to work, the store, the park, etc. So the trend now is back to the city and away from the distant, boring suburbs. This in itself will drive suburban housing values down significantly.</em></p>

<p>This is the batlle Seattle is now having. Being populated with a majority of liberal urbanites, tech geeks, and aging hippies, the argument for skyscraper condos downtown and mass transit is being vigourously championed but meeting huge resistance from those people who prefer a house with a yard and a fence to living in a box with windows. Fortunately, the mass transit side still argues too much with itself, the financing cannot get sold to the taxpayers, and the landholders are being stubborn about getting full value for anyland being proposed for the changes needed.</p>

<p>Ideally, humans want space <strong><em>and</em></strong> community, but forced to choose between the two history shows that they choose space. Thus, there is more inherent value in land than there is in section 14-B of a concrete box. Suburban houses will retain their value as long as people keep having kids, neighbors keep pumping up the stereo at 2AM, and the population still has a choice.</p>
 
Southern CA is nowhere near the population density to support a true urban style living. At best we might be able to replicate downtown Fullerton with mid-rises here and there, that's about it. In order for high-rises to make sense, land has to be much more expensive than it is today.





Urbanization will come, but not today.
 
"Ideally, humans want space and community, but forced to choose between the two history shows that they choose space."



I don't see that - not with the majority of people worldwide living in cities. And the elites - intellectual, economic, and political - have always gravitated towards cities.
 
<p>I think that the younger generations are postponing marriage and family. Fifty years ago, it was common to get married and have kids at the age of 20. Now, it's not uncommon to get married and have kids at the age of 30. I'm turning 30 this year and am planning to get married and have kids in a year or two.</p>

<p>So... I'm anti-suburbia. I like being around people and business, but I don't like being around ghetto neighborhoods. Therefore, although the population densities of Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Garden Grove would benefit from more dense, urban housing, I wouldn't want to live there. I would prefer living in midrises or condos in Irvine or Huntington that are close to entertainment centers. Good locations would be Bella Terra in HB or South Coast Metro in Costa Mesa or 405/Jamboree in Irvine. I think that is why the developers are building housing in those areas. I think our generation cares less about space and peace, and more about convenience and people. Even the Irvine Company is building a brand new apt complex in South Coast Metro. And just look at all those new apts/homes being built on Jamboree in Irvine.</p>
 
I don't think it's a issue of being forced to choose between the two, but historical trends clearly shows that people are willing to move to urban centers of their free will. The era of small rural towns is gone and the attempt to replicate them via suburban neighborhoods has evolved to HOA's.





I wish we had more mid-rise communities around Irvine with more night life and shops/restaurants that opened late. One can dream right? haha.





Ghetto is going to the mall on weekend to find that it's closed at 6pm-7pm. Extend your hours to midnight, please!
 
<p>I grew up and untill around 2000 lived in a small, rural town. I even farmed for a living.</p>

<p>Their era isn't over. There's just no work. I mean none.</p>
 
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