Stock Performance

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Janet_IHB

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<p>After last week's post about going full-tilt on stocks, I am wondering how many of you have done in recent times.</p>

<p>My little nestegg took a huge hit early in the decade, and has never fully recovered. It came very, very close some months ago, but never quite made it. It is currently down around 10% from its peak.</p>

<p>I am not a sophisticated trader - to say the least. I generally prefer buying stocks of companies where I understand exactly what it is they do!</p>

<p>Obviously, since the Dow recently hit an all-time high, I am underperforming it.</p>

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<p> </p>
 
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiNQSbcOYNQ">Trader's Lament</a>




I guess you have to be a trader to fully appreciate this video...
 
Janet, I guess it depends on what your nest egg was invested in during the early parts of 2000. Tech stocks, like housing prices, will probably not get back to the same levels for another few years.
 
<p>Janet,</p>

<p>For an investor like you describe, I'd recommend to stay away of individual stocks, don't fall for hot stocks.</p>

<p>You need to do a lot of research (your homework) before investing in particular stock market sectors and even that you can fail, because there's a lot of media manipulation out there, hedge funds and others "float" news or rumors that fit their particular strategy: long or short. </p>

<p>Viewing web sites here and there, I don't call it real research, the sources can be "contaminated" in many ways. Real research means to analyze SEC filings, do field trips to visit providers, customers and talk to competitors of the company that you'd like to invest in , obviously this is not something that a "retail" investor can do, </p>

<p>I'd recommend the <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/lazy-portfolios-beat-benchmarks-again/story.aspx?guid=%7BDABA48D1-0DDA-43F7-8700-275FEF592BD1%7D">Lazy Portfolio</a> for you, where you do adjustments once a year and then go a live your life, you can check its performance once a month if you like, but you do adjusments once a year.





Now is becoming popular to invest in ETFs, that's something that you can do, but like individual stocks you need to do you homework too, some of them can be risky and other less so.</p>
 
<i>"I am wondering how many of you have done in recent times."</i><p>


When I think it wise to be long equities, I just go long BRK.b, because I figure Warren is a better stock and company picker than me. I am not long the general market right now, because I perceive way too much risk. And the caveat; if Bernanke lowers the feds fund rate a few times, the money will have to go someplace and my guess is that it will go to the general equities market.<p>


I think deflation is a possibility and if the money supply decreases, cash will be king. But, Bernanke cannot allow deflation for very long, and the only perceived solution to deflation is money printing. Either way, in the end, I will hold precious metals.
 
<p>CNBC reported that someone tried to break into Buffett's home yesterday. They were home and summoned security, who chased the guy off. I'm surprised he even has security...he just doesn't seem like the type that would. (of course, I think he should be guarded 24/7)</p>
 
awgee -- it would be smarter of you to go long brk.b when you thought it <em>unwise</em> to be long equities. Berkshire Hathaway is a great hedge in market downturns. But when the market is hot, it tends to underperform, because people don't see the value in so much cash on the balance sheet not being put to use. Look at Berkshire's performance in the past year vs. the broader equities market. Or in the years following the dot com crash.
 
With the massive devaluation of the dollar basically any funds placed in foreign markets since 2003 seem to have turned to gold. I don't think however that will persist as the dollar may be undervalued against the euro, kiwi, AU$, and Brazillian real even though it is still massively overvalued against the RMB, yen, and most of the Gulf Countries: in particular UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. If you've had big real estate holdings and managed to sell some of them you've made out like a bandit.
 
bishie,





If the FED lowers interest rates, those overseas investments will continue to overperform because the value of the dollar will decline.
 
I agree I put some $$ overseas in overseas currency, between 2004 and now, I've experience a 20% appreciation just on the currency exchange along! Amazing
 
I'm looking in to World Currency CD's from Everbank.com. They offer a choice of a basket of currencies, or single country currencies. I feel that international equities will continue to outperform, until the declining U.S. dollar capitulates and turns to the upside.
 
<em>"until the declining U.S. dollar capitulates and turns to the upside."</em>





If they lower interest rates, the dollar will not turn higher any time soon.
 
Here is the Nikkei's Monday performance:















<script language="javascript1.2" type="text/javascript">

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dateValue(NK225_MM,NK225_DD,NK225_TIME_E);

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09/10 - close





<img width="1" height="2" border="0" alt="" src="http://www.nikkei.co.jp/NNI/images/sp.gif" />





<img width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" src="http://www.nikkei.co.jp/NNI/images/sp.gif" />





<img width="1" height="2" border="0" alt="" src="http://www.nikkei.co.jp/NNI/images/sp.gif" />







<script language="javascript1.2" type="text/javascript">

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document.write(NK225_CUR);

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</script>

15,764.97



<script language="javascript1.2" type="text/javascript">

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diffValue(NK225_DIFF);

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</script>

-357.19




 
<p>One thing to play the US Dollar weakness is to buy the ETF: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXE">FXE</a>





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