[quote author="xsocal land merchant" date=1226930684]<blockquote>This all sucks? when will developers get a decent community of true Single Family DETACHED homes with their OWN driveway and a modest yard?</blockquote>
Product is driven by what the market can afford based on the cost is of bringing product to market using the land residual method.
Based on land costs, entitlement fees, construction costs along with carry costs there won't be too many buyers able to afford the price needed to make a profit.
Builders finding construction lenders in toady's market will continue to be challenging.
The biggest problem is that most people won't be able to finance or afford what they say they want.
Have you looked at an REO or foreclosure on a 1 or 2 year old SFR home or possibly an older home that was updated?
Everyone has wanted prices to come down and as they do it makes it harder for builders to bring new product to the market.
Land costs will continue to increase density in OC except for the uber-rich.
Good luck</blockquote>
No offense xsocal, but this is the same mentality that crushed the builders, like JM Peters and Paisley in the 90s. I'm surprised you of all people still believe this, as you should know that Lennar and CalPac took over the condo projects that JM Peters and Paisley veered to in that time because it became a more "affordable" product. Back then, SFRs dropped before condos did, but when the condos started to drop, they dropped harder and faster than SFRs. Trying to maximize land value in flooding the market with a product that the public doesn't want, doesn't mean they will profit more from it, and in fact they will lose more money. Land costs have come down significantly in OC, not to the negative land values of the IE, but they have drastically dropped. Not only have land values come down, but material prices have come down big time.
Builders who do this are only trying to catch a falling knife. They flood the market with a product people don't want, when the prices for this product continues to fall faster than the product the people want. IMHO, this is the dumbest thing to do in a falling market. Just look at all the condo/live work/zero lot line product out there, and you will see there is way, way too much for the demand. StanPac obviously still has people on their staff that have forgotten the past, and judging by the demand they are doomed to suffer the same fate they did in the past. There is plenty of land in the OC, trust me, I know there is when population growth is stagnant and job growth is negative and heading back to 2004 levels. Builders just need to build a product people want to maximize value, and people DO NOT WANT this product. OC is a great place to live, but it is not NYC, nor will it ever be. High density is not something we have grown to love, we love big lots with modestly sized homes. WANT LOT, WANT TO NOT SEE MY NEIGHBOR.
If StanPac does go this route, then remember this thread, because like those in the 90s who didn't listen to econ 101 of demand, they will fail, and someone will update this thread on which builder has taken over StanPac's project.
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