SoCal Home Prices Tumble...

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xsocal land merchant_IHB

xsocal land merchant_IHB

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<p>This is pretty telling as to the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080313/ap_on_bi_ge/california_homes_prices">fall in both prices and sales volume</a>. </p>

<p>As the old song says, "You gotta know when to hold them and know when to fold them."</p>

<p>Sounds like a good time to take a long break from the whole real estate buy/sell discussion until it works itself out.</p>

<p>That is coming from an IHB Bull!</p>

<p>At this point it is becoming way more detrimental to the economy than just the opportunity for some folks to buy into the home market at a reduced price.</p>

<p>awgee- you have to be loving that gold at 1K/oz.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Enjoy!!</p>
 
Declining prices and declining volume is a very, very bad sign. The next likely event is going to be an increase in volume and an increase in the rate of the decline as sellers begin to panic and as foreclosures take their toll.
 
<p>Just for fun:</p>

<p><embed id="VideoPlayback" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/lSev8AbB2SA" width="425" height="350" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" quality="high"></embed></p>

<p> </p>
 
The median price of OC dropped nearly 100k year over year in Feb but from last month, it stayed at 520k possibly because of all the Irvine houses sold at 5 ~7% off from asking prices which ipo has been keeping track of. Is this another bull trap or are we going to see double digit % drop in 2008 and 2009?
 
<p>Do I need to start a thread on reverse implied odds, and why how much money you have (and your opponent has!) is the most important thing in the no limit games (which means you have to count your money at the table)?</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p><em>Declining prices and declining volume is a very, very bad sign. The next likely event is going to be an increase in volume and an increase in the rate of the decline as sellers begin to panic and as foreclosures take their toll.</em> </p>

<p>IR, I don't think so. Homeowners basically breakdown into two camps: financially prudent or not.</p>

<p>The median is already down significantly and much like San Diego, median/sf is worse. Frankly, there's no panic coming. There's a long drawn out foreclosure process coming with squatters waiting until the Sheriff's department shows up to boot them.</p>

<p>If the homeowner was financially prudent and bought in 2003 or before and utilized a fixed rate loan, they're already at rental par or close enough that it's wash given their low interest rate. If the homedebtor bought after 2003, wasn't financially conservative using Option Arms, ARMS with high CLTV, they're already priced out of the market. They can't sell. One look around their street and they know they're trapped in their home. You still see the occasional desperate koolaid drinker wishing price out there, but frankly, most aren't that stupid, they're just caught in a bad decision having been pressure by the hype into thinking the bad move was not buying back in '04, '05, '06 and '07.</p>

<p>There's no panic coming because while they may panic, they can't sell. Nor is it even worth their time to try since the MLS is already flooded with short sales. They only have one option left, hang on while they can hoping it turns around this summer or give up, squat and live rent free for the 6-9 months or longer that it'll take the bank to boot them. Hell, I suspect most are looking for a get out of jail free card with lawyers on screwed up mortgage paper work.</p>

<p>Actually if I read a little closer, you're right. The panic won't be homesellers, it'll be the banks with the foreclosures. </p>

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