Smallest Post Bubble Drops

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irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
So the IHB likes to detail the HELOC abuse and price drops Irvine has gone through, but there is always another side to the story, there are some tracts in Irvine they seem to be very resistant and are actually retaining their prices, if you find any post them here.

Some that I have found:

Northwood Point:

Sold in 2005 for $970k, sold in June 2011 for $970k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Lynnfield-92620/home/4793258

Sold in Sept 2008 for $1.2m, sold 3 years later in Sept 2011 for $1.268m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Roseleaf-92620/home/5769748

Westpark II

Sold in 2005 for $1.1m, sold in August 2011 for $1.040m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Pienza-92606/home/4629446

Quail Hill

Sold in Aug 2008 for $1.1m, sold in May 2011 for $1.120m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/154-Tapestry-92603/home/5902399

Sold in June 2005 for $1.25m, sold in Dec 2010, for $1.20m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/110-Treehouse-92603/home/5902482

And if you go back to 2003... where many claim Irvine prices should be, the prices are even much lower... and that makes 1999 pricing more of a unicorn than anything.

At the very least, this shows that I can pull from the genus Prunus fruit too.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So the IHB likes to detail the HELOC abuse and price drops Irvine has gone through, but there is always another side to the story, there are some tracts in Irvine they seem to be very resistant and are actually retaining their prices, if you find any post them here.

Some that I have found:

Northwood Point:

Sold in 2005 for $970k, sold in June 2011 for $970k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Lynnfield-92620/home/4793258

Sold in Sept 2008 for $1.2m, sold 3 years later in Sept 2011 for $1.268m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Roseleaf-92620/home/5769748

Westpark II

Sold in 2005 for $1.1m, sold in August 2011 for $1.040m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Pienza-92606/home/4629446

Quail Hill

Sold in Aug 2008 for $1.1m, sold in May 2011 for $1.120m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/154-Tapestry-92603/home/5902399

Sold in June 2005 for $1.25m, sold in Dec 2010, for $1.20m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/110-Treehouse-92603/home/5902482

And if you go back to 2003... where many claim Irvine prices should be, the prices are even much lower... and that makes 1999 pricing more of a unicorn than anything.

At the very least, this shows that I can pull from the genus Prunus fruit too.

there are suckers born every minute.
 
akula1488 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So the IHB likes to detail the HELOC abuse and price drops Irvine has gone through, but there is always another side to the story, there are some tracts in Irvine they seem to be very resistant and are actually retaining their prices, if you find any post them here.

Some that I have found:

Northwood Point:

Sold in 2005 for $970k, sold in June 2011 for $970k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Lynnfield-92620/home/4793258

Sold in Sept 2008 for $1.2m, sold 3 years later in Sept 2011 for $1.268m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Roseleaf-92620/home/5769748

Westpark II

Sold in 2005 for $1.1m, sold in August 2011 for $1.040m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Pienza-92606/home/4629446

Quail Hill

Sold in Aug 2008 for $1.1m, sold in May 2011 for $1.120m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/154-Tapestry-92603/home/5902399

Sold in June 2005 for $1.25m, sold in Dec 2010, for $1.20m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/110-Treehouse-92603/home/5902482

And if you go back to 2003... where many claim Irvine prices should be, the prices are even much lower... and that makes 1999 pricing more of a unicorn than anything.

At the very least, this shows that I can pull from the genus Prunus fruit too.

there are suckers born every minute.

At least, as is claimed by some here, most of them are from China and India.
 
IndieDev said:
akula1488 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So the IHB likes to detail the HELOC abuse and price drops Irvine has gone through, but there is always another side to the story, there are some tracts in Irvine they seem to be very resistant and are actually retaining their prices, if you find any post them here.

Some that I have found:

Northwood Point:

Sold in 2005 for $970k, sold in June 2011 for $970k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Lynnfield-92620/home/4793258

Sold in Sept 2008 for $1.2m, sold 3 years later in Sept 2011 for $1.268m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Roseleaf-92620/home/5769748

Westpark II

Sold in 2005 for $1.1m, sold in August 2011 for $1.040m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Pienza-92606/home/4629446

Quail Hill

Sold in Aug 2008 for $1.1m, sold in May 2011 for $1.120m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/154-Tapestry-92603/home/5902399

Sold in June 2005 for $1.25m, sold in Dec 2010, for $1.20m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/110-Treehouse-92603/home/5902482

And if you go back to 2003... where many claim Irvine prices should be, the prices are even much lower... and that makes 1999 pricing more of a unicorn than anything.

At the very least, this shows that I can pull from the genus Prunus fruit too.

there are suckers born every minute.

At least, as is claimed by some here, most of them are from China and India.
Are they suckers or are they just trying to park (maybe even launder) their money into Irvine real estate?  I wouldn't trust the Chinese government with anyone's money and India has their serious inflation problems.
 
Exactly. It's a lot easier to hide money made from human trafficking and body parts trade in Irvine Real Estate than it is in BMW's and Ferrari's.
 
Talking of India realestate there is more expensive on a per sq ft basis than Irvine. This with no
infrastructure of roads, drainage, garbage disposal, availability of good water and noise pollution etc etc.
Honestly I felt happy and lucky to have bought a place in 2010 collection at about 300/sq ft in one of the
best maintained cities in the USA. Although I'm a long term bear on real estate when i saw
the prices in India (during my summer visit) I really felt fortunate for what i have here eventhough
it is probably going to be 15-20% less when the dust settles.



IndieDev said:
akula1488 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So the IHB likes to detail the HELOC abuse and price drops Irvine has gone through, but there is always another side to the story, there are some tracts in Irvine they seem to be very resistant and are actually retaining their prices, if you find any post them here.

Some that I have found:

Northwood Point:

Sold in 2005 for $970k, sold in June 2011 for $970k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Lynnfield-92620/home/4793258

Sold in Sept 2008 for $1.2m, sold 3 years later in Sept 2011 for $1.268m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Roseleaf-92620/home/5769748

Westpark II

Sold in 2005 for $1.1m, sold in August 2011 for $1.040m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Pienza-92606/home/4629446

Quail Hill

Sold in Aug 2008 for $1.1m, sold in May 2011 for $1.120m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/154-Tapestry-92603/home/5902399

Sold in June 2005 for $1.25m, sold in Dec 2010, for $1.20m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/110-Treehouse-92603/home/5902482

And if you go back to 2003... where many claim Irvine prices should be, the prices are even much lower... and that makes 1999 pricing more of a unicorn than anything.

At the very least, this shows that I can pull from the genus Prunus fruit too.

there are suckers born every minute.

At least, as is claimed by some here, most of them are from China and India.
 
waitin4ever said:
Talking of India realestate there is more expensive on a per sq ft basis than Irvine. This with no
infrastructure of roads, drainage, garbage disposal, availability of good water and noise pollution etc etc.
Honestly I felt happy and lucky to have bought a place in 2010 collection at about 300/sq ft in one of the
best maintained cities in the USA. Although I'm a long term bear on real estate when i saw
the prices in India (during my summer visit) I really felt fortunate for what i have here eventhough
it is probably going to be 15-20% less when the dust settles.
Is this how it is in most places in India?

If RE is more expensive there, how is it that labor is so cheap? Are there areas that are more developed and maintained similar to US cities?

Based on what you are saying, it would make sense for many Indians to migrate here.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
waitin4ever said:
Talking of India realestate there is more expensive on a per sq ft basis than Irvine. This with no
infrastructure of roads, drainage, garbage disposal, availability of good water and noise pollution etc etc.
Honestly I felt happy and lucky to have bought a place in 2010 collection at about 300/sq ft in one of the
best maintained cities in the USA. Although I'm a long term bear on real estate when i saw
the prices in India (during my summer visit) I really felt fortunate for what i have here eventhough
it is probably going to be 15-20% less when the dust settles.
Is this how it is in most places in India?

If RE is more expensive there, how is it that labor is so cheap? Are there areas that are more developed and maintained similar to US cities?

Based on what you are saying, it would make sense for many Indians to migrate here.

IHO, It is not as bad as waitin4ever makes it sound in most places in India. Infrastructure, drainage, garbage disposal etc. all exist in India. To say that there is nothing is ridiculous, people do not live in the stone age there. The truth is all these systems exist but do not work as well as here. India's huge population and lack of planned development/regulation puts tremendous strain on the existing infrastructure. Roads are not as well maintained and crowded because of it. Other systems are also strained so they do not work as well as here. Things have gotten worse recently but i also see a concerted effort to improve things but it will take time.

On the real estate side some background may help explain things. Most well paying jobs are in and around the big cities. Here land is at a huge premium, so most people do not live in SFR's or Townhomes as we know them here. Most of the housing consists of apartment complexes, where units are available for purchase. On a per sqft basis these are much cheaper than $300/sqft number quoted for Irvine. One of my cousins recently bought one for ~$100/sqft (a 1900sqft 3 bedroom apartment unit) in a good neighborhood. There are plenty of options to get housing well below  $100/sqft if you compromise on the location/commute. Hope this helps explain at least partially why labor is still not that expensive.

However, RE prices have only been going up like crazy for many years now and there is a mentality that RE prices only go up (sounds familiar?). I guess the only reason this bubble has not burst yet is 1) Inflation is crazy in India (~10-15% per year) and this has boosted wages too 2) long standing tradition of regarding RE as the best investment 3) Lot of money flowing from abroad in India as well as easier credit in the last few years.

Hope this post gives you a more balanced view on the Indian Market
 
The labor is cheap, just because the Rs (Indian currency) so devalued due to inflation, and it trades @ 45x times for a dollar. The cost of living in India is not that cheaper, with the indian median salary.

The real estate is super crazy, for the last 10 years, due to globalization effect, higher wages and lot of remittance inflow into India. 
 
OK clarification. When i talk about drainage I'm talking about the water clogged roads at the first sign of rain.
When i talk garbage disposal I'm taking about the street littered with crap which doesn't get moved and therefore
foul smell even in front of those 300/sq ft homes.

Yes there are places in each city that is 100 per sq ft also. But as mentioned it comes with the sacrifice
of commuting a huge distance for many things. Also these are places where there is not much infrastructure
in  terms of good roads, hospitals, schools etc. All these places are mostly dug up because roads and bridges
are being laid out. Causing even more pain with your commte and pollution. When these places get all these
infrastructure built (if at all or even 20% of places like irvine ) I can bet the real estate will be 300+ /sq ft.

When I'm talking 300/sq ft I'm trying to compare it to
heart of the city or the places of desirability (similar to Irvine for example). Point was even these places of desirability
which are priced at 300/sq ft or higher lack many basic facilities (pocket parks, Pools, cleanliness).

As for pay scales and real estate prices that is a mystery to me as well. My opinion is real estate was cheap
10-12 years back and salaries were less also. Then they both kept going up. (35-50% raises). People doubling
salaries by changing jobs to a competitor. salaries went up much faster than inflation But Apparently the salary
part is adjusting it self quite a bit. Those dramatic raises have gone down a lot. But cost of everything is going up
a lot probably more than salary raises. So in a few years people will feel the pinch in terms of affordability.

That is just my observation & guess. But I truly felt quite content with what we have here in comparision.


westirvine_loaner said:
irvinehomeowner said:
waitin4ever said:
Talking of India realestate there is more expensive on a per sq ft basis than Irvine. This with no
infrastructure of roads, drainage, garbage disposal, availability of good water and noise pollution etc etc.
Honestly I felt happy and lucky to have bought a place in 2010 collection at about 300/sq ft in one of the
best maintained cities in the USA. Although I'm a long term bear on real estate when i saw
the prices in India (during my summer visit) I really felt fortunate for what i have here eventhough
it is probably going to be 15-20% less when the dust settles.
Is this how it is in most places in India?

If RE is more expensive there, how is it that labor is so cheap? Are there areas that are more developed and maintained similar to US cities?

Based on what you are saying, it would make sense for many Indians to migrate here.

IHO, It is not as bad as waitin4ever makes it sound in most places in India. Infrastructure, drainage, garbage disposal etc. all exist in India. To say that there is nothing is ridiculous, people do not live in the stone age there. The truth is all these systems exist but do not work as well as here. India's huge population and lack of planned development/regulation puts tremendous strain on the existing infrastructure. Roads are not as well maintained and crowded because of it. Other systems are also strained so they do not work as well as here. Things have gotten worse recently but i also see a concerted effort to improve things but it will take time.

On the real estate side some background may help explain things. Most well paying jobs are in and around the big cities. Here land is at a huge premium, so most people do not live in SFR's or Townhomes as we know them here. Most of the housing consists of apartment complexes, where units are available for purchase. On a per sqft basis these are much cheaper than $300/sqft number quoted for Irvine. One of my cousins recently bought one for ~$100/sqft (a 1900sqft 3 bedroom apartment unit) in a good neighborhood. There are plenty of options to get housing well below  $100/sqft if you compromise on the location/commute. Hope this helps explain at least partially why labor is still not that expensive.

However, RE prices have only been going up like crazy for many years now and there is a mentality that RE prices only go up (sounds familiar?). I guess the only reason this bubble has not burst yet is 1) Inflation is crazy in India (~10-15% per year) and this has boosted wages too 2) long standing tradition of regarding RE as the best investment 3) Lot of money flowing from abroad in India as well as easier credit in the last few years.

Hope this post gives you a more balanced view on the Indian Market
 
I'd also like to share my methodology of how I found these homes, I basically looked in neighborhoods built after 1990 that are usually deemed as "sought after". I also tried to find 3CWG homes based on the IHB's hedonic data analysis that such homes tend to have a higher valuation and I kept my search within the $1mil range.

The hardest part were finding homes that sold during the mid 2000s (bubble peak) and then sold again in 2010 or 2011. The big losses usually occurred in the $1.2m range and up. One area that sold new during the mid 2000s and experienced large drops was Columbus Grove, both the Irvine and Tustin tracts. I imagine Woodbury and Northwood II would have similar resistance in the sub $1mil range but larger drops in the over $1mil range. When I get time I'll see what I can find there but from what I recall... prices are not that much less in Woodbury now than they were in 2005/6/7.
 
This one in Woodbury was interesting, sold for $790k in Oct 2005, then sold for more in July 2008 for $830k while the bubble was deflating and then sold again last Dec 2010 for $790k:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/62-Rising-Sun-92620/home/5958996

Sold in March 2005 for $1.025m, sold in Nov 2010 for $1mhttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/62-Logan-92620/home/5958734

But these are the exceptions, many of the ones I've seen have significant drops. I had not looked at the $900k+ Woodbury homes recently but I stand corrected as most homes in that higher range have taken $100k or more losses from their original sale dates in 05-06. Many of the Rossmoor, Mille Fleurs and even Villa Rosa homes are $200k lower than their original prices.
 
IHO:

If you keep posting these sales, the TIC lurkers will start increasing their pricing to $400ft for all new communities...  Maricopa 1 for $900K and Maricopa 2 for $1MM sound good?
 
I am sure TIC is tempted but Maricopa along with other new communities' lot sizes are smaller with higher mello roos.  I guess its too much to ask for a Westpark II type community (3CWG)  with updated floor plans, low mello roos, and sub $50 association dues in current times.
 
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