S&P Case Shiller Index Prices Fall First Time Since 1991

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graphrix_IHB

graphrix_IHB

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<p><a href="http://tinyurl.com/yo4gba">http://tinyurl.com/yo4gba</a></p>

<p><a href="http://www.macromarkets.com/recent_news/press_releases/2007/05292007_S&P.pdf">http://www.macromarkets.com/recent_news/press_releases/2007/05292007_S&P.pdf</a> </p>

<p>Take a look at the chart from the macro markets link and notice the drop is worse than the 90s.</p>

<p>Here is a nice link to show the percentages by city <a href="http://housingderivatives.typepad.com/">http://housingderivatives.typepad.com/ </a></p>

<p>So what does everyone else think?</p>
 
<p>It looks extremely steep, and if it continues, certainly at odds with the idea that prices will remain essentially flat while it takes inflation and time to actually correct the market.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
<p>There was more weakening in the ABX index today. For those of you who are sure that home prices are controlled by sellers and buyers collectively - no one else, a weakening in the ABX index means there will be less buyers.</p>

<p>Also, of interest and possible note, the secondary market investors are ordering increasing numbers of broker price opinions, (BPOs), on loans before they purchase prime loans at about a 30% sampling. The sampling is being doubled to about 60% on Alt-A loans. The BPOs are resulting in a 10-15% cut in appraised value on some homes causing significant effects on loan pricing and options and causing underwriters to squeeze appraisal reviews on the primary level. Again, less buyers. </p>
 
<p>SCHB - I don't think the drop is any where near done. The trend line looks like we could see a drop worse than the 90s. If there was a stochastic chart we would be able to see a flatline of death. I think we need it since it would take over ten years for inflation to catch up. By the way great first post and I look forward to more.</p>

<p>awgee - What I noticed about the ABX indexes is they are in a similar pattern as the first death drop they took. They now are starting to not like the 2007 vintages. I had problems added a picture today but if I can do it I will show the FNMA 30 year fixed bond pricing. They have broken through all moving averages including breaking or hitting support levels everyday for the last week and half. They are 25 bps below the 200 day moving average as of today and the stochastic looks like a flatline.</p>
 
<p>graphrix, I agree that the drop is just starting. I don't have much doubt the decline will continue, but I'm sure there are still some frequent bottom callers that I want to speak to in my responses. </p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
This reminds me of the guy that says, "The first time I met her, I knew she was the one." They got married and lived happily ever after. They tell their story and we listen and say that's so cute. Except me... I say that we only hear the story because they have been successful. How many said she was the one and divorced and how many times did he say she's the one before they actually got together.





I think I'll start calling the bottom now and each time it moves down so that eventually I'll be right. =) Then I can say I called the bottom and (almost) everyone will be in awe. LOL.
 
<p>Darin</p>

<p>Calling the bottom wont make you a genius, BUYING at the bottom wont make you one either...but BUYING at the bottom will make you some money. Then again, you wont realize your worth until you wait for years this time around. And it might never be like what it was. Real Estate will not be the topic in a few years...Time to find another market</p>
 
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